Man it feels like the finals just finished. Well it's finally time to focus on the draft. I've been in the lab (watching
Draft Express videos. Shout to Mike Schmitz ) checking these boyyyys out. One thing I have noticed is there is a big drop off in terms of talent, upside, and depth from last year's draft, but it's no 2013 draft (Goo!). Here are some of my thoughts on the guys I have seen so far.
2015 NBA DRAFT Capsules
Mario Hezonja – Watching a highlight tape and it’s easy to
see why scouts are excited about him. His game is very American. He’s got the
size, plays above the rim, chases highlight plays, and hero balls it up. Hid
defense comes and goes, but mostly goes. This is a player that needs to be in a
well-structured organization to make sure he doesn’t go off the rails. I can’t
predict what he will become until I see which team drafts him, but I think the
top-5 discussion is overblown. Anyone that would rather have him over Justise
Winslow is nuts in my book. I also skew a bit away from Euros after going all
in back when it was fashionable. Those were some Dark(o) days…
Jahlil Okafor – Someone who everyone is familiar with. I’m
not as high on Okafor as others. He is part of a dying breed. On offense, he’s
a savant on the block. Okafor already has more moves down low than almost
everyone in the NBA. The defense is where he struggles. For a guy who moves
reasonably well and has a 7’5” wingspan, he should be much better than he is,
but the most important things on defense are effort and IQ, which he has
neither. There are also whispers out of Duke that he doesn’t have a big passion
for the game, which is the ultimate scarlet letter for a big man. The NBA is
changing, and big men that can’t defend the rim or stretch the floor are
becoming exposed by small ball. If
you are a team that selects Okafor, you are going to have to have a roster that
can cover up his deficiencies and that is a lot of work. In my opinion, he
shouldn’t be in the top-4 for this reason. One-way players in the NBA can’t
carry a team to greatness. One last note, after listening to him interview (I
had to turn it off two minutes in he annoyed me so much) I would not want to
build a franchise around him. This guy has some serious Andrew Bynum potential.
Justise Winslow – Tailor-made for the modern NBA, Winslow
may be the best two-way player in the draft. Coming out of high school, he
ranked in the top 20, but behind his improvement in shooting, has vaulted his
way up into a lottery pick this year. Even though his shot still needs work, he
did shoot 41 % from 3. That improvement to me shows he will continue to grow
exponentially as a player in the NBA. Very high IQ player on both ends. Every
team needs a player like him in the Kawhi/Jimmy Butler mold. Winslow has all
the intangibles you need and as teams start valuing swiss-army knives, he can
be amongst the best of them.
D’Angelo Russell – The best PG prospect I’ve seen since Kyrie
came in from the 2011 draft, Russell is the best offensive player in the draft.
While not a great athlete, his super high IQ gives him the ability to read the
floor and make passes nobody else can see. He’s an excellent shooter, with a
super quick release. Has the handles to create his own shot off the dribble.
Has the size to be a big point guard or a standard 2. His defense leaves
something to be desired with an intermittent effort. This is something he is
going to have to work on, but I expect him to average 20-8-5 on the regular and
end up as the best player in the draft when all is said and done. Reminds me of
a Harden/Manu hybrid. This kid is the next great point guard. Silk beb.
Karl Anthony-Towns – As of right now, appears to be the
consensus number 1 pick and usually when that is the case, the player doesn’t
miss. Towns is a giant, at 7 feet with a solid frame. He is someone that
improved a lot throughout the year, but still has a ways to go. On offense,
he’s ok, but as an 80% free throw shooter, and some of the workouts I have seen
pre-draft, he looks like a guy that will be able to pick and pop, potentially
all the way out to the NBA 3 in time. In that way he reminds me a bit of Al
Horford. On defense, he has good instincts and can defend the rim. If you put
him in a pick and roll, he can’t really chase you out on the perimeter, but if
you drop him back in a typical NBA scheme, he is a plus defender. Age is on his
side. As we all know big men take longer to develop, but there is a lot of
upside here. I don’t think he is the slam dunk that everyone else does, and I
may take Russell over him depending on my roster, but there’s no doubt Towns
will have a big impact as a two-way player. I don’t see him winning any MVPs,
but 7 footers that can defend the rim and stretch the floor are a rare
commodity. This is why Towns should go in the top 2. He will be way better than
Chokafor.
Emmanuel Mudiay – Watching Mudiay it’s hard not to see
Russell Westbrook. He’s bigger at 6’5”, more unselfish, and just a small notch
less athletic (as everyone is), but I can see him having a similar impact in
the NBA. He can be a great defender, like we all thought Westbrook would be,
but it’s going to take more of an effort than he shows now. His shooting also
needs work as his mechanics are loose and inconsistent. Mudiay is a freak
athlete and a terror in transition. I love his game and think he is a definite
top-5 pick. People are sleeping on him. This kid will be a top-10 PG in the
league and could be the first all-star out of this class.
Kristaps Porzingis – A unique talent at 7’1”, it’s going to
be interesting to see how he progresses. Porzingis has a great shooting stroke
with range out to the NBA 3 point line that is going to be huge for his game. His
defense is not great, not terrible. There is a feel for the game he is lacking
right now, but I think will improve. The intangibles are there and everyone
seems to think he is a good kid with a high work ethic. For Porzingis, it is
going to be about fit. A smart coach will be able to amplify his size and
shooting and what kind of lineups he should be in. I like him as a player, but
I don’t think he should be in the top-3 discussion. After that, for a team that
needs a playmaking 4, then I would consider it. I don’t think he will be a
bust, but I also don’t see him being an all-star either. Hopefully the Zinger
finds a good situation for him and doesn’t become the Punchline. Dad jokes all
day.
Willie Cauley-Stein – A freak athlete at 7 feet, his calling
card is his defense. Having a big that not only can contain pick and rolls, but
play a guard straight up is a huge benefit. No one else in the draft does it
better than WCS. He is also a tremendous weakside shot blocker and rim runner.
On the flip side, he is a zero on offense that will seriously cramp your
spacing. His IQ and feel for the game on offense are way behind his defense and
will never be good in the NBA. I don’t know if he can start in this league on
defense alone, but certainly can be a contributor to a team as a defender.
Larry Bird thinks he will be a max guy. I disagree. I worry about his focus and
see him more as a 6th or 7th man coming off the bench as
an energy guy. Sometimes he is just too Silly Cauley-Stein.
Myles Turner – Turner is an interesting prospect. He has
size, length, protects the rim, and can shoot pretty well. What he doesn’t have
is explosiveness, IQ, ability to pass the ball, and looks like an injury
waiting to happen. People have made a big deal about the way he runs, because
other big men prospects who move this poorly up and down the floor generally
become injury-prone in the NBA. If I were a GM, I wouldn’t be swayed by the big
block numbers. This guy is gonna be a bust and anyone that takes him in the
lottery is crazy. You heard it here.
Cameron Payne – A guy who has been surging up the draft
boards, I’m still a bit skeptical on Payne. He’s a great passer and can run the
pick and roll very well, but what worries me most is his shot. Streaky shooters
like Payne suffer from bad mechanics. His shot is a bit slow and low. This will
be exposed in the NBA where everyone is longer. The athleticism also worries
me. Payne has some nice highlights, but it’s important to remember the level of
competition was mid-major. He didn’t look like the same player versus major
schools with NBA talent. To me, I see a guy that can come off the bench and be
a solid rotation player if he keeps working. I still like him to contribute,
but if I were a GM I wouldn’t CamPayne for him to be a top-10 pick.
Stanley Johnson – Although he has probably the nerdiest name
of the draft, Johnson reminds me of P.J. Tucker on the court. He is
good on the defensive side of the ball, able to guard 3s and 4s and has a high
IQ here. Will pick up steals and body up guys in the post without being
overmatched strength-wise. The offense to me is where the big problem lies.
While I don’t think he’s an offensive zero like WCS, he will always be a minus
on this side of the ball. He lacks IQ with his shot selection and is an atrocious
passer. Not a leaper, but with his wingspan and strength he should be a better
finisher than he is in traffic, but it’s almost like he doesn’t know how. Now
he did just play his freshman season at age 18, so there is time to figure some
of these things out. I eventually see him getting to be a good rotation player
who will be able to switch on most defensive assignments, but he is going to
have to work to not kill you on offense. The low release point scares me from a
potential shooter standpoint, but if he can get a league average 3 pointer a la
Draymond Green, then he can definitely be a valuable rotation piece.
Christian Wood- Super low IQ player on both ends of the
ball. Somebody who was born with size and athleticism, but no idea how to use
it. This kid stinks. Don’t waste a first round pick on him. Anthony Randolph
part 2. And much like Big Momma’s House 2, nobody wanted the sequel when the
original was bad enough.
Rashad Vaughn – Kid reminds me of Jamal Crawford. While he
doesn’t have the advanced handle yet, he has the range both as a spot up
shooter and off the bounce. Can navigate screens as well and keep his body
balanced while rising up for a J. This will be his role in the NBA. I think he
can succeed as a sparkplug off the bench, that is able to do a few other
things.
R.J. Hunter – One of my favorite players in the class. Could
be my 2015 NBA Draft crush. Has a lot in common with Steph Curry. Quick
release, unlimited range, both sons of students of the game, slight build, and
had to carry a mid-major team on their backs. Hunter can’t play with both hands
like Steph and he sure as hell can’t shoot like Steph (no one can), but at 6’5
with a 6’9.5” wingspan, I think he can be a very productive combo guard. I
think he should be a top-8 pick, but it sounds like he may go late-lottery to
mid-first. The NBA values shooters and this kid can do that plus make plays for
his teammates. Hunter still has to fill out and be a better finisher in the
lane, but with his work ethic and intangibles, I have no doubt this kid will be
a productive starter and a major contributor to a contender.
Devon Booker – Booker has perfect mechanics on his shot and
because of this he will be in an NBA rotation. His 6’6” is a small one, with a
matching wingspan, and this will make him a minus defender in the game. The
thing he does have going for him is his IQ on both ends, and this will hold him
up. My comparison for him is Anthony Morrow and that is the impact I see him
making. He is the youngest player in the draft so he still has a lot of time to
get better, but he seems closer to a finished product than others his age. If a
team needs a shooter off the bench, he’s a good pick.
Kelly Oubre – I would like to purchase some Kelly Oubre
stock while it’s low. The kid may fall out of the lottery and I get it. His
numbers stink, his focus wasn’t there, and he seems kind of soft. Lot of bust
potential here. Personally, I think being in the BA and getting coached up is
exactly what he needs. He’s a couple years away, but if a team can be patient
with him and nurture his talent, I think this kid will be a solid starting wing
in this league with potential to be even better. He cam shoot, he’s long, and
he can stay in front of anyone on defense. Finally a guy in the league named
Kelly I don’t hate. Should be a top-10 pick. Teams will regret passing on him
after that.
Sam Dekker – Think he is overhyped. Riding the momentum from
a good shooting tourney and the fact that defenses keyed on Kaminsky the last 2
years. He is a 33% 3-point shooter in his 3 years at Wisconsin and 69.5% from
the line. This does not project as an above average shooter at the next level,
which he will need to be. Plays with a high IQ and motor on both sides, but
isn’t going to out athlete or skill anyone. I don’t think he should be drafted
in the top-20, with a very low ceiling and not a single skill that translates
well to the NBA. And he has that Bobby Thompson hairline.
Trey Lyles – 6’10” with a 7’3” wingspan he has great size
for a small-ball 4. The problem is he has no discernible NBA skill that will
carry him into the next level. Lyles shot 13% from 3 so he can’t really space
the floor all that much. On defense he didn’t average 1 steal or block, which,
at his size, is pretty pathetic. I don’t know what he’s going to be able to do
on the next level to be honest. BUST
Kevon Looney – 6’9.5” with a 7’3” wingspan, this kid is
long. Shot 44% from 3 in limited attempts. I think this is a bit of a mirage,
but I think he can work himself into an average 3-point shooter in the NBA. Can
play 3 or 4, but probably better as a small ball 4. Looney is an average
athlete, but the length makes him a great rebounder and versatile defender. The
biggest thing for him right now is strength. Dude needs to hit the weight room,
but he’s only 19. Once he puts on another 20 pounds, his game will flourish. I
don’t think he will ever be a guy that can create his own offense, because his
touch is questionable, but if he can spot up and hit the open shot, it will
help his game immensely. I have faith that he can be a 3 and D guy in the NBA.
Sleeper here. I think he’s worthy of a lottery selection.
Bobby Portis – Terrible first name. The thing I do like
about Portis is he will dive for loose balls and stay focused on D. With his
size he should be an able body in the league for a while. He plays within
himself almost to a fault. College is the perfect place to work on new things,
but he’s very uncreative on the offensive side of the ball. I think he will be
a rotation guy, maybe an 8th man. He can be better than this, but
with limited hops, his upside is capped.
Montrezl Harrell – Much like the D in Django, the z is
silent. This kid is a beat that plays with fire. Will out motor and hustle
anyone on the court. 7’3” wingspan and plays above the rim. An easy comp to
make is Kenneth Faried and I definitely agree. I think he can be almost as good as
Faried and I expect him to be. Not sure why he is
falling so far in the draft. Sign me up for some Montreezy stock.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – One of the best athletes in a
draft with very few of them, RHJ is a Michael Kidd-Gilchrist clone all the way
down to the hyphenated name. Hustles his ass off and never loses focus on
defense. 6’7” with a 7’1” wingspan and big time hops, he is a ball hawk that
eats glass. A guy that is quick enough and will be strong enough to guard
positions 1-4. His offense isn’t great. His shot needs a lot of work and I
don’t think he will ever be a league average 3 point shooter, but that’s not
why you draft him. Every team needs a wing stopper. He can score in transition
and play well in an up tempo system. Not a ton of upside because of the
offense, but a high floor because he already has high-end NBA skills on
defense. RHJ will be a rotation player with meaningful minutes for a long time.
Should not fall past 20.
Tyus Jones – We have a player like this every year. The
great pass-first point guard who’s small for his position and doesn’t have the
requisite athleticism to stand out at the next level. I love Jones’ game, but
his future in the league is as a quality backup who probably can’t guard
anyone. Really smart player who can see moves ahead like a chess player, but on
defense it’s checkers. Reminds me of Eric Maynor, but I think he can have a
longer career. If my team needed a backup point guard I think he’s a good
target outside of the lottery.
