Draft week is upon us. I want to get right into it. After watching the playoffs and seeing big men get played right off the floor (even Embiid was kind of a minus at times), I agree with the thinkpieces that say big men are being overvalued in drafts. Think about the top 5 players in the league. Lebron, KD, AD, Harden, Steph, Kawhi if he's healthy, Giannis next. The only one that could be considered a big man is AD, but he's a freak that can do everything well. The PGs in this draft, in my opinion are not good. None of them can run a team. Except Doncic. He should be a team's starting PG a la James Harden. He's excellent. The bigs in this draft are not that impressive to me. Ayton and Bagley don't play defense and Bamba doesn't play offense. Triple J though does do both...That leaves wings. There aren't a lot of high potential wings that are currently being ranked in the top 12, but maybe one will get picked later and emerge in the right environment. Wings should be the new center. Teams should be prioritizing wings that can shoot. I think my rankings partly show that.
Now truth be told, I watched a good amount of college hoops this year, but there are still a lot of guys I can't really give an opinion on because I didn't see them enough. I have looked at what most people are saying is the top 13 and given them my rating. Not saying they will be the best 13 because they certainly won't, but they are the guys I feel I have a good grasp on. And here they are in order.
Luka Doncic – To me,
Luka Doncic is the best player in the draft and I really don’t find it that
close. To be as young as he is and have the skills he possesses is
extraordinary. Of course his defense is a bit Euro-y, but this guy could really
play PG for a team if they let him take the reins. There’s a lot of James
Harden in his game and I think he can be a top-10 player in the NBA. I think he’s
the only surefire all-star in this draft and for any team to pass on him is foolish.
Rating 93
Jaren Jackson Jr.
– In general, I am buying the trend that teams drafting haven’t caught up to
the idea that centers are overvalued. Unless you can find an Anthony Davis.
There’s none of those in this draft, but JJJ could be a slightly on sale version of Chris
Bosh. He’s already a pretty good outside shooter and he blocked shots in
college. None of the other 3 bigs of Ayton, Bagley, or Bamba can do both. That’s
why I like Jackson. He can fit into any team without the team having to alter
how it plays. He can switch on defense, which is also hugely important and he
has length. I personally would take triple J at 2 ahead of these other guys.
Rating 86
Michael Porter Jr –
I would have to say the biggest range of outcomes belongs to Michael Porter Jr.
He could be the next Jayson Tatum or he could be what Harry Giles is right now,
which is prematurely injured and most likely not gonna make it. I wouldn’t put
too much stock into those two games he played in Missouri, but I watched him in
high school and really liked what I saw. Guy’s a total alpha. Now I know Bob dropped a #BobBomb last week and we found out the really huge news that he "wasn't well liked" in high school, but I'm not gonna hold that against him. In my opinion,
this is the kind of guy teams should be drafting. Long wings that can guard
multiple positions, shoot from outside, and a bonus if they can create their
own shot and finish around the rim. MPJ checks all those boxes. The big men in
this draft are getting a lot of hype, but I’d rather trade down a few spots and
take a swing on Porter. Rating 86
Deandre Ayton – Deandre
Ayton is a specimen, that’s for sure. Not a lot of 7 footers can move like he
does. Had a pretty good season numbers-wise in college. You know who also put
up similar numbers? Michael Beasley. This guy’s defense is a joke, showing virtually
no IQ or effort on that end of the floor. He may end up putting up 20 and 10,
but it’s going to be for a bad team and the numbers will only help your fantasy
team. He doesn’t make his team better and I get a vibe from him like he thinks
he made it already. I mean Puma? Really? I want a guy who’s gonna grind and get better. I think he
seems content right now. I would NOT draft this guy number 1. Having said that, there aren’t many players in this draft that have
All-Star potential. He certainly has that, but I just don’t see him being
anything more than Demarcus Cousins. Rating 85
Mohamed Bamba – La
la la la la la bamba is getting a lot of hype about being able to shoot from 3.
I don’t know man. All these big men think they’re Chris Bosh, but I think Jaren
Jackson is probably the only one who may be close. Bamba is a bit of a stick
figure, but I think he will be a good rim protector. How could he not? All he
has to do is hold his arms up. I think he will be a fine starting center, but I
don’t see him ever hitting say 35% of 3s in a game format. Empty gym 3s are
much different. Even I hit a few of those. Rating 82
Marvin Bagley III – The kid dominated college, but I
thought he would be a different player. The fact that his wingspan is just 7
feet really sours me on him and explains why he wasn’t better on defense. I
really don’t get the fascination with these bigs that can’t shoot from outside
and can’t defend or switch. Now Bagley does have decent form and he may end up
being just decent from spot up 3s, but he’s always going to be a below average
defender. Him and Ayton to me are similar in that they may put up numbers, but
won’t help their team overall. Having said that, I think Bagley is a much
harder worker than Ayton and has potential to evolve, however he has longer to
go than he thinks. Rating 81
Mikal Bridges
- = Otto Porter. 3 & D guy. Fits on
any team. Would be better on a team closer to making the playoffs. Easy. Rating 81
Miles Bridges – A
nice role player for any team. Freak athletes that can shoot 3s are valuable
and you have to love his competitiveness. Hopefully he doesn't get burned. Rating 80
Trae Young – Maybe
the best offensive player in the draft and most offensive hair because it looks
like that was the hair he was born with and never got a haircut. Also the worst
defensive player in the draft. The comp I haven’t heard yet that I think is
most likely is Isaiah Thomas, the new one. Thomas had to be routinely hidden on
defense and that matters in the playoffs. Same for this kid. Shooting though,
is at a premium and he can launch off the dribble from distance. I like Trae
Young as a guy that can maaaaaybe be a bottom-10 starting PG, but I really like
him as a microwave off the bench that can jack up shots. I don’t think there’s
a PG in this draft that will be a top-20 PG, but Young can at least stretch the
floor and pass well. Rating 79
Kevin Knox – Knox
looks likes a bobblehead with that giant noggin attached to his little body. I
have mixed feelings on him. He thinks he’s a 3, but I definitely see him more
as a 4. The shooting stroke looks good and I actually think he will be able to
hit shots from 3 and play decent defense. His range will never be as deep as his forehead wrinkle though. This guy needs botox already! Could be a solid starter, but never sniffing an All-Star team like some people
seem to be hyping. Rating 78
Wendell Carter Jr. -
What’s up with all the juniors in this draft. They have some unoriginal vain
papas. Mr. Wendell is getting some hype as the draft draws closer. I am a lot less
impressed. Could be David West minus the toughness in a best-case scenario, but
the toughness and grit is what made West a really good, not great, player.
Carter seems like a little bit of a bitch. I see him as a serviceable big man,
but nothing better than your 5th guy and probably not worse than
your 8th. Also, he has one of those gross beards, which I just hate
looking at. Shave man. Rating 78
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
– I liked what I saw out of Shai for the most part at Kentucky. Has a smooth
game and did a decent job running the offense. The jump shot looks as bad as
MCW’s when he came out and I see a lot of MCW in Shai. People projecting that
shot will be average are dreaming. This is an especially weak PG crop, but I
have to say I think SGA will probably just be a backup ball handler who tops
out at what Shaun Livingston is now. Rating 76
Collin Sexton - Aside from a cool name, I don’t think he
will have a big impact in the NBA. PGs that can’t shoot seldom do unless you
pass like Rondo and he does not. I think he has drive so he can be a
serviceable ball handler, but shouldn’t be starting for any good team. These
guys are a dime a dozen. Rating 75
