Friday, May 28, 2010

NBA Draft 2010 Power Rankings: Top 25 and More

Finally I am getting to do my first piece on the 2010 NBA Draft. Very excited. This draft is a really interesting one. Last year everyone bashed the draft, but I thought it had some talent and it did. I will revisit some of my critiques about the players in last year's draft next year although 3 years is probably the optimal time. There was a lot of mystery in the 2009 draft as to who would emerge and become big time players. We are already seeing it from a guy I pegged as the 3rd best player in the draft, a guy I didn't believe in too strongly, and a guy whom I strongly doubted could make it because I thought he was a head case. There are always players that outperform expectations like Tyreke Evans has shown. Brandon Jennings got his team to the playoffs and Steph Curry showed the poise of a veteran. We are still waiting to see the players I believe will still be the top 2, Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio.

So now we get to this draft. Around this time every year we hear about how weak a draft is, just like last year. The thing is, with this year's draft it seems like everyone who had a shot at the first round declared, for better or worse. I believe this draft is quite deep and has a top 4 that has been much better than the top 4s in most recent drafts. Something else I noticed about this incoming class of rookies is how tall everyone is. We always hear about how this guy's a tweener, or how that guy is stuck in between positions, or how another guy would be great if he was 3 inches taller, but you won't be hearing any of that this year. It seems like everyone has prototypical size for their position.

For example, there is a certain height that scouts and GMs stop calling you undersized. This is the perfect height for each position. If you're above these heights in your position it can be a bonus and a great matchup for that player, but sometimes it just makes that player a little out of position and a little too slow for that slot. So here's the prototypical lineup in heights.

PG - 6-3
SG - 6-6
SF - 6-8
PF - 6-10
C - 6-11/7-0

Now let's look at last year's prospects and see how many of the 1st rounders fit that size.

Blake Griffin PF 6-10
Hasheem Thabeet C 7-3
Tyreke Evans PG 6-5 (If you consider him a PG which I don't think he projects to be by 2012)
Ricky Rubio PG 6-5
Stephen Curry PG 6-3
Jordan Hill PF 6-10
Demar DeRozan SG 6-6
Jrue Holiday PG 6-4
Earl Clark SF 6-10
Austin Daye SF 6-11
Eric Maynor PG 6-3
Omri Casspi SF 6-9
BJ Mullens C 7-0
Taj Gibson PF 6-10

That's 14 players. That means that 16 1st rounders were considered undersized for their respective position. Now let's look at Chad Ford's top 30 and see how many we have this year.

John Wall PG 6-4
Derrick Favors PF 6-10
Evan Turner SG 6-7
DeMarcus Cousins C 6-11
Wesley Johnson SF 6-8
Greg Monroe PF 6-11
Ed Davis PF 6-10
Al-Farouq Aminu SF 6-9
Gordon Heyward SF 6-8
Avery Bradley PG 6-3
Donitas Motiejunas PF 7-0
Ekpe Udoh PF 6-10
Hassan Whiteside C 7-0
Paul George SG 6-9
Xavier Henry SG 6-7
Luke Babbitt SF 6-9
James Anderson SG 6-6
Damion James SF 6-8
Kevin Seraphin PF 6-10
Larry Sanders PF 6-11
Solomon Alabi C 7-1
Craig Brackins PF 6-10
Lance Stephenson SG 6-6
Willie Warren PG 6-4

You don't have to go through the whole list but thats 24 of Chad Ford's top 30 that fit into or above prototypical size. Smallest player in the first round mix is Eric Bledsoe at 6-2. Nobody is smaller than that and this is why it's one of the longest drafts I've ever seen. The other 6 guys that didn't fit the prototype for their position missed it by ONE INCH. Huge draft. Size is coming into the league in spades.

So now we get to MY TOP 25! These rankings will probably change a little bit as workouts happen and we get a better idea of who each player is, but this is my current top 25 with about a month before the draft. I'm going to break it down into tiers to show where the drop off is from player D to player E. For the last 3 drafts we have had Tier 1 be only 2 players. In 07 it was Greg "I have a giant penis and everyone knows it because of a naked picture I sent a girl, but I'm horribly embarrassed this information came out to the public" Oden and Kevin "Maybe I, not LeBron, am the chosen one" Durantula. In 08 it was Derrick Rose and Michael "we thought we would be calling him beastley, but instead his nickname is vagina" Beasley. In 09 it was Blake Griffin and Ricky "the Spanish Sensation that was NBA-blocked by my most hated GM ever David Kahn" Rubio. This year is a little different. Let's get to it.

Tier 1
1. John Wall PG 6-4 196 lbs Kentucky Fr.
2. Evan Turner SG 6-7 214 Ohio St. Jr.
3. Derrick Favors PF 6-10 245 Georgia Tech Fr.
4. DeMarcus Cousins C 6-11 292 Kentucky Fr.

Tier 2
5. Wesley Johnson SF 6-8 206 Syracuse Jr.
6. Greg Monroe PF 6-11 247 Georgetown So.
7. Eric Bledsoe PG 6-2 192 Kentucky Fr.
8. Donatas Motiejunas PF 7-0 220 Lithuania 19
9. Al-Farouq Aminu SF 6-9 215 Wake Forest So.
10. Xavier Henry SG 6-7 210 Kansas Fr.
11. Paul George SG 6-9 214 Fresno St. So.

Tier 3
12. Gordon Heyward SF 6-8 211 Butler So.
13. Patrick Patterson PF 6-9 240 Kentucky Jr.
14. Avery Bradley PG 6-3 180 Texas Fr.
15. Ekpe Udoh PF 6-10 237 Baylor Jr.
16. James Anderson SG 6-6 210 Oklahoma St. Jr.
17. Luke Babbitt SF 6-9 214 Nevada So.
18. Ed Davis PF 6-10 227 UNC So.

Tier 4
19. Jordan Crawford SG 6-4 198 Xavier So.
20. Stanley Robinson SF 6-8 213 UConn Sr.
21. Craig Brackins PF 6-10 229 Iowa St. Jr.
22. Hassan Whiteside C 7-0 227 Marshall Fr.

Tier 5
23. Darington Hobson SF 6-7 204 New Mexico Jr.
24. Cole Aldrich C 6-10 236 Kansas Jr.
25. Devin Ebanks SF 6-8 208 West Virignia So.

This is my list right now. I'm going to go into deeper analysis as the days pass on each guy. Some of you might notice I'm a bit high on a few guys like Bledsoe, down on some guys like Ed Davis, and really down on some guys like Cole Aldrich and Daniel Orton who's not even in my top 25. I will get into all of that before the draft. We are creeping up to June 24 so expect the blog to start rolling. Late

3 comments:

  1. <---- love a friday afternoon willie read.

    surprised you put bledsoe in tier 2...was it because of his shooting?

    like seeing cole waaaaaayy down the rankings.

    i would probably put demarcus in tier 2 if you are throwing in wasley johnson (love his completeness) and al-farouq.

    xavier henry and ed davis will both blossom eventually.

    great size updates willie. liked seeing the comparison to prior draft. good research. im sure adam bloom will say that he already knew this because he knows everything about drafts and international players.

    ^----love a friday cg1 dig.

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  2. Bledsoe is a great shooter but he also has an NBA body and is a really good athlete. Not to mention the dearth of PGs in this draft making him the 2nd best. Pacers need a PG and he might be their pick at 10.

    Demarcus Cousins would only be tier 2 if his attitude gets in the way of his talent. I've thought he was a little better version of Zach Randolph for a while including the immaturity.

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