NBA Draft 2013: My Grades on the Winners and Losers

Well that was interesting.  I can’t remember a time I was shocked at the first pick. This set the tone for a crazy night that was almost too crazy because it was so hard to keep up with who was going where. The Celtics imploded their team and Bill Simmons imploded on national TV. There were some clear winners (Lucas Noguiera’s hair/hat combo) and probable losers (Solomon Hill? Really?). It’s probably not an awesome sign if your GM is telling the fans not to worry a day after the draft (lookin at you Flip). Without further ado here are my grades for each team.

Atlanta Hawks – A-

Lucas Noguiera 16^th pick

Dennis Schröeder 17^th pick

Mike Muscala 44^th pick

Raul Neto 47^th pick

You have to love the Noguiera pick. He gave us the moment of the draft with that appearance from the stands. It’s too bad he didn’t stay in Boston because I absolutely would have rocked a fake fro/hat combination, like OKC did with Harden. I think his upside could be worth it here.

Apparently the Hawks believe in the D.E.N.N.I.S. system as much as I do. I like Schröeder quite a bit and I still don’t understand why he went this low in the draft. This gives Atlanta an insurance policy if Teague leaves and an asset, like Eric Bledsoe, if not. Love love this pick.

Muscala is a solid pick this late in the draft. Could be a decent rotation guy. And then Raul, which is a fun name to say.

With all these draft picks and their first rounders being non-American teenagers, it’s clear Atlanta is going into rebuilding mode. I think they started that movement with grace in the draft.

Boston Celtics – F

Kelly Olynyk 13^th pick

Colton Iverson 53^rd pick

The KG-Pierce deal didn’t affect this draft so I won’t count that in this assessment.  I will just say that I actually like the deal for Boston and it will make the NBA Draft interesting around here for the next 5 years.

Boston got so Dennis-ed by Dallas with that shitty trade up for Kelly Olynyk. They must really like him to have traded two valuable second round picks and their own pick to move up 3 spots. If your team is in rebuilding mode, maybe trading 3 picks for 1 isn’t a great idea. This terribleness (making it a word) is bolstered by the fact that I think Olynyk will be a bust. This is my personal opinion, though most would agree his upside is a downside. With news that they are potentially shopping Rondo, it would have made so much sense to stay at 16 and take Schröeder. 

Another big goofy white guy with their second round pick of Colton Iverson (might be the blackest name for a white guy possibly ever). They must really be missing Greg Stiemsma. With these two guys, plus Sullinger and Fab Melo, Boston is going for the slowest frontcourt in the game. Haven’t they learned their lesson about trying to tank for franchise guys (Duncan, Oden/Durant)? I’m hoping they get Wiggins aka Maple Jordan, but we all know they won’t. The Cs pulled a real Mantis Toboggan here.

Brooklyn Nets – C-

Mason Plumlee 22^nd pick

I personally don’t think Plumlee will turn into anything but bench fodder in the NBA. There were some good guys on the board here and I think they would have been better off taking one of the wing players with some upside (Ledo, Rice Jr., Bullock, Franklin). If they think this guy is going to be an adequate sub for Brook Lopez they have another thing coming.

Charlotte Bobcats – D+

Cody Zeller 4^th pick

Another draft shocker here. There were reports that Rich Cho (the GM) wanted Zeller here, but once Noel and McLemore slid I thought it was a sure thing they would take one of those guys. Nope. Cody Zeller is a guy I like, but don’t see him becoming anything more than a solid starter. There were guys who had potential to be All-Stars on the board and I don’t really know why they didn’t take them. They must hate playing on national television or something, because they somehow just get worse every year.

Chicago Bulls – C

Tony Snell 20^th pick

Erik Murphy 49^th pick

Some pretty average picks here. Snell has a chance to turn into a decent rotation guy for them. My preference would have been for some of the other guys on the board, but clearly Chicago thought he was a better fit. I like seeing South Kingstown, Rhode Island’s own Erik Murphy (or as I like to call him, E. Thought of that one myself) make it with a strong organization. He has a chance to be a Matt Bonner type if he keeps improving his outside shot.

Cleveland Cavaliers – B+

Anthony Bennett 1^st pick

Sergey Karasev 19^th pick

Carrick Felix 33^rd pick

The Cavs started off the draft with a bang! I thought they were taking Noel and everything else was a smoke screen, but like most of us, I was wrong. I’ve said previously that Bennett would be the first to become an All-Star out of this class and he is now in a good situation to do that. I had him graded as the second best player in the draft, right behind Noel so I don’t have any problems with this pick. Maybe Noel was a jackass, and they liked Bennett. Good pick for the Cavs.

I really liked Karasev with that pick and I’m surprised he fell there. He’s got an ultra-smooth shot and will help them stretch the floor along with Bennett.

Carrick Felix is the one black mark on the night. There was plenty of talent left in the second round and they opted for a guy that they probably could have signed as an undrafted player. Bad move.

Dallas Mavericks – A-

Shane Larkin 18^th pick

Ricky Ledo 43^rd pick

Good picks here by the big D. Larkin is a guy that can do the things JJ Barea used to do for them. He probably won’t ever be good enough to start due to his size, but I think he can stick with this team as a backup PG/spark plug.

Ledo is a boom/bust pick and at this point in the draft, it would have been difficult to find anyone with greater upside. I really like this pick and think it could be the steal of the draft. If Mayo leaves he could be getting 20+ minutes a night right away. Great haul here.

Denver Nuggets – D

Erick Green 46^th pick

Joffrey Lauvergne – 55^th pick

What a cheapo move to trade your first round pick for a second round pick and cash. I don’t respect selling your picks off. Erick Green is a good pick this late. But then they also drafted a guy named Joffrey?!?! What the fuck! Didn’t they learn anything from Game of Thrones??? This is going to drag their grade down.

Detroit Pistons – C

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 8^th pick

Tony Mitchell 37^th pick

Peyton Siva 56^th pick

With their pick of the litter of PGs they should have taken one. Brandon Knight is not their guy to run the team and they know that. They have two big men who need a solid distributor to set of the offense. Instead they take a guy who has some upside, but I believe to be a bit overrated. Not a great pick in my opinion.

Some interesting second round guys. Tony Mitchell is an athletic freak. Definitely worth the pick here as a guy who has major upside. Siva might make the team as a backup.

Golden State Warriors – Incomplete

Nemanja Nedovic 30^th pick

With the final pick of the first round the Warriors take Nedovic. Here’s a guy I know nothing about. I gave it an incomplete because of this and because I don’t know if they plan on stashing him overseas or bringing him in this year. This team is not guaranteed a playoff spot in the tough west conference next year and unless he can make an impact for their team next season then I think the pick wasn’t good. There were guys on the board that they could have used. I think Franklin would have been a great pick as a possible defensive stopper on the wing. We will have to wait and see for this one.

Houston Rockets – B

Isaiah Canaan 34^th pick

A guy I like with some decent upside. I see his role being a Nate Robinson type off the bench for them. He’s a big-time scorer who most thought would be a first round pick. I think getting him here is more appropriate and will probably replace Aaron Brooks. Good pick.

Indiana Pacers – F

Solomon Hill 23^rd pick

For the second year in a row they make a terrible pick when all they need to do is fortify their bench. They really needed Larry Bird back for this one. I’m guessing he sat out the draft process and let Walsh do his thing, which is a big mistake. Hill probably would have gone undrafted or they could have got him in the second round for something. With the guys on the board that we’re there this just made no sense. Hate seeing this from one of the few teams that can challenge Miami next year.

Los Angeles Clippers – A-

Reggie Bullock 25^th pick

Love Reggie Bullock and the Clippers got him at a great spot here. The kid can already shoot at NBA range and will help them space the floor. Look for him to be a rotation guy pretty quickly. I had him rated in the top 15.

Los Angeles Lakers – C+

Ryan Kelly 48^th pick

Not a bad pick here. Kelly has some potential as a stretch 4. We’ll see if he sticks. The Lakers can use all the help they can get.

Memphis Grizzlies – A-

Jamaal Franklin 41st pick

I had Franklin rated at 21 so to get him here is a steal. A guy who has major defensive potential and will fit in perfectly for the Grizzlies franchise. Great pick. Don’t know anything about the other guy, but my guess is he won’t ever come to the NBA.

Miami Heat – C

James Ennis 50^th pick

It’s hard to nitpick this late in the draft, but I wasn’t crazy about this pick. There were a lot of guys with potential to stay on with an NBA roster left on the board and the Heat took a chance on Ennis. We’ll see if this pick sticks, but they haven’t really been good at mining the second round for picks in a long time (like ever).

Milwaukee Bucks – B+

Giannis Antetokounmpo 15^th pick

Nate Wolters 38^th pick

Giannis is a guy that no one knows how he will turn out. We could all be laughing at this pick in 5 years or applauding it.  I’m rooting for the kid and it’s obvious he has tons of potential. I like him in this spot and think he’s worth the risk outside of the lottery.

Wolters is a solid pick in the second round and they are hoping he can bring some of the stuff Redick did for them in the half season he played for them. Good picks for the Bucks.

Minnesota Timberwolves – C-

Shabazz Muhammad 14^th pick

Gorgui Dieng 21^st pick

Lorenzo Brown 52^nd pick

Bojan Dubljevic 59^th pick

To me, there were just so many better options for them with their first pick. To trade out of 9 when McCollum was there was their first mistake. Then passing on another great shooter in Karasev at 14 was another bad move. I just don’t like Shabazz. He’s a hard worker, yes, but he’s not a team player. A wing player that averages less than an assist a game is kind of a red flag for me. He is just another guy who will be all about himself. Look for him to try to get out of Minnesota in a few years and be a bad locker room guy when things aren’t going well.

Gorgui Dieng is an ok pick. I think with Bullock on the board he would have fit a need for a shooter they desperately need. Instead they take a raw big man who might be the next Festus Ezili.

Their second round picks didn’t wow me either except the guy with the awesome name (not Bojan). Flip Saunders proving that he can not only be incompetent as a coach, but as a GM. Double-threat! Khan isn’t looking so bad right now.

New Orleans Pelicans – C

Pierre Jackson 42^nd pick

The Pelicans are here and they came out swinging! Huge trade for them right off the bat. I think it was smart to take Noel even if they knew they wouldn’t keep him. He had too much value to pass up there. I think him an Anthony Davis could have been an intriguing duo once Davis’s offensive game came around, but instead they trade him for an All-Star PG in Jrue Holliday. They also traded a top-5 protected pick in next year’s draft, which I’m not crazy about, but they got Pierre Jackson in the deal.

So if you look at the trade as Nerlens Noel and what will probably be a pick between 8-14 next year (playoffs look more likely in 2015) for Jrue and Pierre Jackson…that trade doesn’t look awesome for them.  It helps them immediately, but the 2014 draft is loaded with potential All-Stars. I get the idea of wanting to win now, but that’s a hefty price tag. If the pick were top-10 or even top-8 protected it would have looked a lot better.

Pierre Jackson is a good get this late in the draft, but I think New Orleans mortgaged the future a bit to be relevant now. They still have a great core, but if they don’t keep that pick next year, the ceiling gets a little lower.

New York Knicks – B

Tim Hardaway Jr. 24^th pick

I may be in the minority here, but I like Hardaway Jr. at this spot. He has the size and athleticism that translates well to the league. I don’t think he has superstar potential, but there is definitely some upside left here. This will give New York some firepower off the bench they desperately need. Good pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder – C+

Steven Adams 12^th pick

Andre Roberson 26^th pick

Alex Abrines 32^nd pick

Grant Jerrett 40^th pick

Well their draft was interesting. First time we get to see the Thunder in the lottery since the Harden pick. As one of the few teams that can challenge Miami I was hoping they would take someone that wasn’t labeled project. I have Adams rated as the 22^nd best prospect, but obviously a lot depends on how quickly he can develop and if his feel for the game increases dramatically. He has potential and the Thunder need some competent big men, so it does make sense for them.

Roberson is an interesting pick. I don’t know that I would have used s first round pick on him, but he has potential to be a Corey Brewer type. Ricky Ledo or Glen Rice Jr. have plenty more potential and would give them another shooter.

Abrines gets high acclaim from those who know the European guys and I think they needed to take at least one guy they could stash overseas.

Jerrett was also a good pick. He has more upside than almost everyone left at this point.

It’s hard to give them a grade right now. It’s also hard to doubt Presti. And we might not know for a while because Scotty Brooks doesn’t play rookies too much. Lot of potential though.

Orlando Magic – B+

Victor Oladipo 2^nd pick

Romero Osby 51^st pick

Although I think Noel would have been a better fit for the team, it’s hard to argue with picking Victor Oladipo. Universally liked, Oladipo is a high character, high motor guy that should help this team be competitive soon. Now they need to trade Afflalo to make room for him.

I thought Myck Kabongo would have made a lot of sense with their second round pick, but they take Osby, a prospect with very little upside.

Philadelphia 76ers – A+

Nerlens Noel 6^th pick

Michael Carter-Williams 11^th pick

Arsalan Kazemi 54^th pick

Philly won this draft in a huge way. They gave up their young All-Star PG and in exchange receive Noel and a top-5 protected pick next year, which will most likely land in the lottery. They are doing the right thing bottoming out, because they were not going anywhere (thanks Andrew Bynum). Noel is a great piece to start with and I believe he will be the best player out of this class when all is said and done.

MCW was a good grab at 11 and gives them a Holliday replacement they can develop. He lacks the same ceiling, but he has a chance to be a good PG in the league.

Kazemi was also a sneaky good second round pick. He has a good chance to stick with the team.

Phoenix Suns – B-

Alen Len 5^th pick

Archie Goodwin 29^th pick

Alex Oriakhi 57^th pick

Len couldn’t have asked for a better situation. Guys his size are prone to injuries and the Suns staff is the perfect group to help. From a basketball standpoint, this gives Phoenix their first big part of their rebuilding process. Len definitely has upside and can make an impact right away just because he’s 7’1”. Not a bad pick.

Goodwin is a guy I wouldn’t have given a guaranteed contract to. I know he’s only 18, but I just didn’t see enough at Kentucky to think he deserved a first round contract. A second rounder would have been more justified.

Oriakhi is a big body that can maybe be backup if he keeps working.

Portland Trail Blazers – B+

CJ McCollum 10^th pick

Allen Crabbe 31^st pick

Jeff Withey 39^th pick

Marko Todorovic 45^th pick

I like this haul for the Blazers. McCollum is an excellent scorer and a good kid that can help them right away. The only thing I worry about is his ability to play with Lillard at the same time. D-Lill is a terrible defender at this stage of his career and McCollum won’t be helping there either. Word is they may use him as a 6^th man, which makes sense for now.

Crabbe is worth a flier this late. He has pro size and length and can shoot the ball.

Withey is a shot blocker. This should translate to the NBA. I like this pick.

They’ve just traded Todorovic to Houston in part of the Thomas Robinson trade.

Sacramento Kings – A-

Ben McLemore 7^th pick

Ray McCallum 36^th pick

With last names like these you would think you were looking at Boston’s picks. The regime is changing in Sacramento and no one should be happier about that then McLemore. He needs a team to nurture his talent and I hope this new team is capable of that. At 7, he is a worthy pick with his upside. They were lucky he slid to them (thanks MJ) and this is a great pick for the organization.

McCallum had a nice college career, but they have so many guards right now I would have thought that a big man would be on the menu. We’ll see who’s staying or going on this team.

San Antonio Spurs – C+

Livio Jean-Charles 28^th pick

Deshaun Thomas 58^th pick

Jean-Charles made a name for himself in the Nike Hoop Summit game where he played very well. The Spurs love their Frenchies so this pick isn’t a big surprise. We probably won’t see him for a few years.

I like taking a chance on Thomas this late. He was a productive player in college and has a chance to stick with this team.

Toronto Raptors – N/A

No picks

Utah Jazz – B+

Trey Burke 9^th pick

Rudy Gobert 27^th pick

The Jazz managed to move up and grab Trey Burke as the first PG off the board. I really like this pick for Utah and think Burke will be a good fit for them. Utah has a nice young core with Favors and Kanter there already so things could be looking up for them.

Gobert is worth a flier just for having one of the largest wingspans ever recorded. He’s a few years away though.

Washington Wizards – C+

Otto Porter 3^rd pick

Glen Rice Jr. 35^th pick

I had Porter rated 8^th so other people are going to like this pick more than me. I understand why they did it though. On paper he’s a great fit for the hole they have at SF and brings intangibles of a winning player. I thought Anthony Bennett would have been the best fit for them, but when he got picked then I think Noel should have been their main focus. Him and Wall could have worked very well together, but they take Porter who has much less potential, but a higher character. I’m not completely sold his skills translate to the NBA. I think he can be a good, not great player. They had a chance to get an All-Star with this pick, but they didn’t want to take the chance.

Glen Rice Jr. is a guy I think should have went in the first round. If they can get him to play defense then his ceiling becomes that much higher. The Wizards are clearly trying to build off their promising end to the season and seeing playoffs as a real possibility. They drafted for now and I think it will pay off for them. I just think they lowered the franchise’s ceiling by not taking Noel.

NBA Draft 2013: Final Rankings Top 40 and Tiers

David Stern's last draft. A sad day. Hoping he welcomes the boos with the same moxie as last year. For more in-depth analysis on these guys, check out my player capsules article. The way I rank players is in three ways. Ceiling, floor, and final grade. Pretty simple. The tiers are based on the number grade each prospect gets. I will introduce that here. None of the prospects finished with an A grade. No surprise there. Anthony Davis was only guy to finish with an A grade last year for me with a 96. I'll republish my 2012 rankings another time. The grading system.

Grading system 1-100

A+/A 100-95 = Can't miss franchise player. Best player on championship contender potential. Perennial MVP candidate. (LeBron and Duncan would have been graded 100)

A/A- 94-90 = Potential multiple All-Star and All-NBA 1st and 2nd team potential. Potential franchise player. Might be good enough to be best player on championship contender with good supporting cast or be an excellent second banana. (D-Wade and Westbrook)

B+/B 89-85 = Potential All-Star 1-3 times in career. All-NBA 3rd team potential. Average to low end second banana on championship contender. High-end 3rd best.

B/B- 84-80 = Might be 3rd best player on championship contender on high end. Solid starter on low end

C+/C 79-75 = Starter on high end. Impactful rotation player on low end

C/C- 74-70 = Potential rotation player on high end. Quality backup on low end.

D+/D 69-65 = Bench filler.

D/D- 64-60 = Out of league by end of rookie contract.

F - 59-0 = Bust on high end. Bobby Thompson blowing out his knee after getting crossed over on the 0 end.

1. Nerlens Noel 7'0" 226 lbs. PF Kentucky 

Ceiling 93     Floor 77     Grade 89

2. Anthony Bennett 6'7" 239 lbs. PF UNLV

Ceiling 92     Floor 76     Grade 88

3. Victor Oladipo 6'4" 213 lbs. SG Indiana

Ceiling 89     Floor 80     Grade 88

4. Dennis Schroeder 6'2" 165 lbs. PG Germany

Ceiling 91     Floor 71     Grade 85

5. Ben McLemore 6'5" 189 lbs. SG Kansas

Ceiling 93     Floor 69     Grade 84

6. Trey Burke 6'1" 187 lbs. PG Michigan

Ceiling 86     Floor 75     Grade 84

7. Alex Len 7'1" 255 LBS. C Maryland

Ceiling 92     Floor 70     Grade 83

8. Otto Porter 6'8.5" 198 lbs. SF Georgetown

Ceiling 84     Floor 71     Grade 80

9. Michael Carter-Williams 6'6" 184 lbs PG Syracuse

Ceiling 87     Floor 66     Grade 78

10. CJ McCollum 6'3" 197 lbs PG Lehigh

Ceiling 83     Floor 70     Grade 78

11. Cody Zeller 7'0' 230 lbs. C Indiana
Ceiling 86     Floor 71     Grade 78

12. Giannis Adetokunbo 6'9" 196 lbs. SF Greece
Ceiling 90     Floor 50     Grade 77

13. Reggie Bullock 6'7" 200 lbs. SF North Carolina
Ceiling 82     Floor 72     Grade 77

14. Tim Hardaway Jr. 6'6" 199 lbs SG Michigan
Ceiling 84     Floor 70     Grade 77

15. Ricky Ledo 6'6" 197 lbs. SG Providence
Ceiling 85     Floor 63     Grade 77

16. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6'6" 204 lbs SG Georgia
Ceiling 85     Floor 67     Grade 76

17. Sergey Karasev 6'7" 197 lbs. SF Russia
Ceiling 82     Floor 67     Grade 76

18. Glen Rice Jr. 6'6" 211 lbs. SG D-League
Ceiling 85     Floor 65     Grade 76

19. Lucas Noguiera 7'0" 220 lbs. PF Brazil
Ceiling 83     Floor 50     Grade 75

20. Shane Larkin 5'11.5" 171 lbs PG Miami 
Ceiling 80     Floor 66     Grade 75

21. Jamaal Franklin 6'5" 191 lbs. SG San Diego St.
Ceiling 81     Floor 65     Grade 75

22. Steven Adams 7'0" 255 lbs. C Pittsburgh
Ceiling 87     Floor 65     Grade 74

23. Shabazz Muhammed 6'6" 222 lbs. SF UCLA
Ceiling 84     Floor 70     Grade 74

24. Myck Kabongo 6'3" 180 lbs PG Texas
Ceiling 82     Floor 50     Grade 73

25. Tony Mitchell 6'9" 236 lbs. SF North Texas
Ceiling 85     Floor 50     Grade 71

26. Tony Snell 6'7" 198 lbs. SF New Mexico
Ceiling 77     Floor 60     Grade 71

27. Jeff Withey 7'0.5" 222 lbs. C Kansas
Ceiling 79     Floor 64     Grade 70

28. Mike Muscala 6'11.5" 206 lbs C Bucknell
Ceiling 81     Floor 60     Grade 70

29. Mason Plumlee 7'0.5" 238 lbs. C Duke
Ceiling 77     Floor 64     Grade 70

30. Isaiah Canaan 6'0" 188 lbs PG Murray St.
Ceiling 77     Floor 50     Grade 68

31. Pierre Jackson 5'10.5" 176 lbs. PG Baylor
Ceiling 75     Floor 50     Grade 68

32. CJ Leslie 6'9" 209 lbs. PF NC St.
Ceiling 83     Floor 50     Grade 66

33. Allen Crabbe 6'6" 197 lbs. SG California
Ceiling 77     Floor 50     Grade 66

34. Gorgui Dieng 6'11" 230 lbs. PF Louisville
Ceiling 73     Floor 50     Grade 66

35. Rudy Gobert 7'2" 238 lbs C France
Ceiling 82     Floor 50     Grade 65

36. Andre Roberson 6'7" 206 lbs SF Colorado 
Ceiling 76     Floor 50     Grade 64

37. Nate Wolters 6'5" 196 lbs. PG South Dakota St.
Ceiling 75     Floor 50     Grade 64

38. Kelly Olynyk 7'0" 234 lbs. PF Gonzaga
Ceiling 78     Floor 50     Grade 62

39. Erick Green 6'3" 178 lbs. PG Virginia Tech
Ceiling 77     Floor 50     Grade 62

40. Archie Goodwin 6'5" 189 lbs SG Kentucky
Ceiling 82     Floor 50     Grade 60

Some quick bullet points here.

Nerlens Noel, in my opinion, has the highest ceiling in this draft, but not by a lot. 
Anthony Bennett is the surest best in my opinion to make an All-Star team the soonest.
Victor Oladipo has the highest floor. Pretty easy assessment. 
I think Dennis Schroeder is wildly underrated. This will be a boom/bust prediction for me personally as 4th best player.
I like Myck Kabongo who needs a good situation to hit his potential. He has skills though.
I don't like Kelly Olynyk because his skills don't look translatable to me. I don't forsee a second contract. 

That's it. Will update my grades very soon. Goodbye Stern. No one can replace the boos you bring on. 

2013 NBA Draft Player Capsules

The 2013 NBA Draft is less than 24 hours away and I've been hard at work. I'll be honest, I didn't watch as much college basketball this year as I usually do, because I was very down on the talent pool (that will change next year) so I want to give a BIG shoutout to Draft Express for killing it with their video scouting reports. Also, Grantland did a great job with their NBA Draft Job Interview features. It feels like they were going for the Gruden QB camp but for basketball and I think it worked. I'm glad I got to see the Nike Hoop Summit game this year as a few of those Euro prospects are rated as first rounders in this draft. These are not final rankings of the players, but my own report on their game and future. I will be ranking them at some point before the draft. All the heights are with shoes on. Leggo.

Nerlens Noel 7’0” 206 lbs. PF Kentucky– Noel reminds me of a less powerful Dwight Howard. He has a ton of length and athleticism, but lacks touch/skills to be a franchise player. He’s already a great defensive player and I love his hustle and anticipation on that side of the ball, but when people say he doesn’t have much of an offensive game, they’re not kidding. He will be a great pick and roll guy who can finish at the rim, but I don’t see him ever developing a good offensive game. He has no jump shot and can’t hit free throws, which will hurt him in close game situations. Having said all that, he’s 6’11”  and change with a huge wingspan and elite athleticism. I have no doubt he will put on the weight he needs to be effective. I believe he will be an NBA all-star someday, but it might take a while.

Alex Len 7’1” 255 lbs. C Maryland – A guy with his size will always find a place in the NBA. At 7’1” with a 7’3.5” wingspan he’s a true center in the league. He has a nice offensive game with some advanced moves, but he needs to learn to use his left hand. He’s also pretty decent on defense, but can get caught ball-watching. He is not as aggressive or nasty as I think a guy with his size should be and this will limit his upside. The upside is there though. He can impact a game on both ends, but will need to add weight to hang with NBA bigs. He is getting top-5 hype and I believe his upside is worthy of that, but he has a lot of things to work on. Injuries are a concern going forward for a guy with size as well. He may make one all-star team, but I would bet against it. I think he will have similar value to Tiago Splitter.

Victor Oladipo 6’4” 213 lbs. SG Indiana– The darling of the draft. Evaluators seem to love this guy and it’s easy to see why. He’s a hard worker who has improved so much in his time at Indiana. He’s also extremely likeable and seems to always give the right answer to questions. The best thing about Oladipo is that he already has a couple of pro-skills that will translate. He can be a defensive stopper and has the athleticism and length to do it in the NBA. His shot has improved quite a bit, but still needs a lot of work. He reminds me of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in that he’s a hard worker who defense is ahead of his offense. In a draft that isn’t top-heavy he should be a top-5 pick.

Anthony Bennett 6’7” 239 lbs. PF UNLV– He’s quite a talent with the size/skills/athleticism he possesses. I’m really high on Bennett, as I see some Zach Randolph in his game. He is the modern power forward, with a developing outside game and a face up post game. His defense worries me, as he looks lazy right now and doesn’t really block shots. Still, his shooting can space the floor and keep defenses honest, which amplifies his ability to drive to the basket. I believe Bennett will make a few NBA All-Star teams and has a chance to be the best player out of this draft.

Trey Burke 6’1” 187 lbs. PG Michigan– The more I look and learn about Burke the more I like him and his future. The best things about him are his fearlessness and his ability to knock down NBA range 3s. He also has shown he can work the pick and roll very well, which will suit him at the next level. Plays with a chip on his shoulder and improved a lot from his freshman to sophomore year, bringing the Wolverines to the title game. He’s only 6’0”, which hurts him, but has long arms. He will need to put weight on to defend stronger guards. I think he has the ability to run a team and while I don’t think he will ever be a top-5 PG in the NBA, I think he can be a top-15.

Ben McLemore 6’5” 189 lbs. SG Kansas – Reminds me a lot of Rudy Gay coming out of school. The same questions come up. We know he’s a gifted athlete who can shoot it, but does he have the mentality to be a go-to guy. Ben showed a lot of flashes at Kansas, but never proved that on a consistent basis. He may have the highest upside in the draft. It’s going to take the right team and environment to bring out the best in him. I, also think McLemore has some bust potential as he may never be more than Brandon Rush if he goes to the wrong situation. I think he will end up in the middle of the predictions and I see Rudy Gay as the type of career he will have. Team and coaching staff around him will dictate his future more so than other upper-echelon prospects.

Otto Porter 6’8.5” 198 lbs. SF Georgetown – This kid will be a good glue guy for any team. Has great intangibles and teammates are going to like playing with him as he is an unselfish player. Makes all the hustle plays and the little things happen that don’t show up in a box score. He also has good size and length for the NBA SF. For all the good things Porter brings to the table, he’s not perfect. He’s an average NBA athlete and still needs to add about 30 pounds to his frame. His lack of explosiveness/quickness does limit his ceiling and for this reason I don’t think a team should take him in the top-3 this year. I think the Tayshaun Prince comp is pretty accurate and I can see him having a very similar career. He will carve out a career for a long time, but probably will never make an all-star team. Maybe a 3^rd team all-NBA in a career year. Still, he would be a good addition to any team.

Dennis Schroeder 6’2” 165 lbs. PG Germany– My man-crush of the draft. I didn’t even know who he was before the Nike Hoop Summit game. If you watch highlights of this kid, it’s easy to see the potential he has. At 6’2” with a 6’8” wingspan he has good size, just needs to add weight, which he can do with his frame as he’s only 19. I don’t understand why he’s not a lock to be a top-10 pick. He has more potential than any other PG in this draft. His jump shot needs some work, but he has good vision and a tight handle. His comp is definitely Rajon Rondo right now, who was also undervalued on draft day. He needs a few years to develop, but I believe he can be a high-end starting PG in the league.

CJ McCollum 6’3” 197 lbs. PG Lehigh – A high character kid with a lot of talent on offense. The NBA always needs shooters and this kid can not only shoot, but score in a lot of different ways. He definitely needs to put on some weight to be able to finish through contact and in transition at the next level, but I think he can. Definition of a combo guard. I don’t see any all-star games in his future, but I think he will be an impactful rotation player.

Cody Zeller 7’0” 230 lbs. PF Indiana– Probably would have been a top-10 pick last year, but gave scouts a year to pick his game apart. Zeller’s got a good offensive game with an array of post moves. He’s also working on extending his range, which is something he’s going to need to do, because he doesn’t have the athleticism or length to be a great post scorer. NBA athleticism is going to take away a lot of his game, but he’s a smart guy who will make adjustments. His defense is lacking in both quickness and strength, so he will never be a plus defender. He also lacks the nastiness that it takes to be able to bang with big guys. He reminds me of Spencer Hawes. No all star games, but can be a solid starting big man if his game continues to grow.

Michael Carter-Williams 6’6” 184 lbs. PG Syracuse – He’s a triple threat of common names. Everyone loves a tall PG and at 6’6” he would be among the tallest. MCW is definitely a true PG with good court vision, with his height helping him to see the floor. He’s also a good perimeter defender and would work well with a team that had a small 2 guard. He has a slight frame that isn’t built to finish well in traffic. He also has proven turnover-prone with a lot of dumb mistakes. Those mistakes are correctable though. His jump shot also needs work. He has good form, but could use a little more lift. This is a shot he is going to have to learn to hit when defenses go under screens. It’s clear he knows this as he did take the shots when the opportunity was presented which is a good sign. If MCW is surrounded by some athletic guys and good outside shooters he will look good. As a pass-first guy he is going to need talent around him to bring out the best of his game. Hoping we don’t have the next Reece Gaines here, but I could see a poor man’s Shaun Livingston (if he stayed healthy). I still think he’s the third best PG in this draft behind Burke and Schroeder.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6’6” 204 lbs. SG Georgia– It would be quite the rarity for a guy whose team didn’t make the tourney, not by fault of injury, to be a lottery pick. Kentavious could be that guy and that concerns me. Let’s start with the positives. The kid has pro moves and looks like a confident shooter. Reminds me a little of Jordan Crawford. He’s got the size and athleticism to be a great player, I just don’t know that he has the IQ. He takes a lot of bad shots, and I know he was on a bad Georgia team that wanted him to do a lot, but I would still like to have seen better decision-making. I think he can make a positive impact on a rotation, but he needs to polish a lot of things first. Not a top-10 pick to me, but after that the pick could be warranted.

Shabazz Muhammed 6’6” 222 lbs. SF UCLA– I’m glad I got to see him in college for a year before having the forecast his future. He was the number 2 player in his high school class coming in, but probably should have been top 15 in the class he should have graduated in. I just don’t like this kid and don’t think he’s a winner. Sure, he has some pro skills, but he just seems like a chemistry killer waiting to happen. If he gets on a team with some vets, he has a chance to be a decent rotation guy, but I don’t see a star here.

Giannis Adetokunbo 6’9” 196 lbs SF Greece– The mystery man of the draft. I’m not even sure I spelled his name right. I don’t think the Indian kid who won the spelling bee this year (probably) could spell his name. His future is impossible to predict. He plays in a league that is a little better than high school teams, but not as good as NCAA. There is footage, but it’s hard to project what he does in those games to an NBA team. The only thing that’s clear is that he is years away from contributing. From the footage I’ve seen, it’s easy to see why scouts get excited about his upside. Giant hands, which makes for a good handle. He’s a good passer and team guy. His defense is also great for his age and is aided by his length. His shot scares me a bit as he gets very little lift and has a low release on it. This is something he is going to need to change. He only just turned 18, but there is clear upside here. I wouldn’t take him in the lottery, but after that he’s worth a flier as someone you can leave in Europe for a year as long as they don’t leave him there too long. He needs better competition and the coaches here to teach him what he needs to succeed. Could be the next Lamar Odom. Still might be growing too.

Steven Adams 7’0” 255 lbs. C Pittsburgh – You can’t teach seven feet. Also has a 7’4.5” wingspan. An intriguing prospect who picked up the game late. It shows as he is definitely going to be a project for whoever drafts him. There is potential here and I think it can be developed, but he has to get some very basic fundamentals of the game down before he will earn more than a few minutes a night. Would be a good D-League candidate. I don’t see a big-time player here, but someone who can come off the bench as a backup big man. Tiago Splitter-lite is his likeliest outcome in my opinion (yes I realize I’ve made two Tiago references. Best name in the NBA.).

Shane Larkin 5’11.5” 171 lbs. PG Miami– I like his personality and bloodlines (Barry’s kid). He also has tremendous leaping ability and is very quick. He’s able to get to the basket well and he can run the pick and roll very well, with some really nice passes out of it. The downside is a big one with him only being 5’11” with a slightly smaller wingspan. He won’t be able to cover taller guards well. The kid can shoot though and the league is always in need of shooters. He seems to have the work ethic to succeed. I can see a JJ Barea like career for him if he keeps working. He shouldn’t be a starting PG in this league though.

Sergey Karasev 6’7” 197 lbs. SF Russia - Karasev is a coach’s son which would explain his high basketball IQ. An unselfish player who seems to value team play rather than the hero ball we’ve seen at times in the NBA (looking at you Carmelo). His shot is perfect. NBA teams are on the look out for guys who can hit the 3 like this kid, so he should have no problems fitting in. He reminds me of Chase Budinger and I can see him having a similar impact. His defense needs work and he needs to add a lot of weight right now, but this can be done as he’s only 19. Whoever drafts him this year will most likely stash him for a year.

Kelly Olynyk 7’0” 234 lbs. PF Gonzaga– Seems like a nice guy, but he has a low ceiling. He’s a 7 footer, yes, but he’s a below average athlete and has a wingspan that’s the same as most NBA SGs and SFs (6’9.75”). This is the perfect example of a guy who succeeded at the college level, whose skills don’t look highly translatable to me. My other big problem with Olynyk is that he’s already 22 and just had his first good season on the college level. Personally, I think this kid won’t be getting a second contract in the NBA.

Glen Rice Jr. 6’6” 211 lbs. SG D-League – Well you gotta love the bloodlines. And, yes, he can shoot the 3. Spot-up or off the dribble. Has great mechanics. And, yes, he’s athletically gifted. Those two things alone should make him a solid rotation player in the league. You can see so much potential in his offensive game. The red flags are glaring though. Seems allergic to defense and he won’t be making any hustle plays unless he thinks they will be on Sportscenter. He’s the quintessential guy in need of a good organization to bring out the best in him. If he goes to the Kings or Bobcats, his career might be short-lived. He could have a Jamal Crawford like career, but it really does hinge on where he ends up.

Lucas Nogueira 7’0” 220lbs. PF Brazil – An interesting prospect because of his size and leaping ability. He’s young, raw, and frail, but he’s in a good situation playing in the Spanish League. Whoever drafts him would be smart to leave him over there for a year or two. He won’t be able to handle contact in the NBA. There has been red flags with him such as his love for the game and missed practices which is always scary. It’s difficult to project his future because he’s so far from a finished product. If he puts on weight he could be a poor man’s Nerlens Noel actually. Someone who can protect the rim on D and attack it on offense. It’s going to take time though.

Tim Hardaway Jr. 6’6” 199 lbs. SG Michigan – He looks like an NBA player. He has prototypical size and an NBA pedigree. I like his game and his potential to get better in a lot of different areas while he’s in the league. He’s a nice run-and-jump athlete, but not as good laterally and lacks a first step. Unlike his father, Hardaway Jr. lacks floor vision. With his ability to draw in defenders he frees up other teammates, but he doesn’t seem to find them. Most of his shortcomings are coachable and workable. I like his chances of sticking in the league for a long time as an important rotation guy. Maybe a seventh man, possibly a little better if he can make necessary improvements and adjustments.

Reggie Bullock 6’7” 200lbs. SF North Carolina – The NBA is starting to appreciate 3 point shooters and defense again, which means Bullock is coming into the league at the right time. A silky shooter with great mechanics. His game looks very similar to Danny Green right now, another former Tar Heel. If he were more athletic, we could be talking about the next Paul George, but as he is now, he will be just fine. He’s also a feisty defender which I like and I fully expect him to be a nice rotation guy in the league. Good value in the second half of the first round and could be a weapon to a playoff team his rookie year.

Isaiah Canaan 6’0” 188 lbs. PG Murray St. – His ability to score is his meal ticket to the NBA. He seems pretty one-dimensional in that respect. At only 6 feet it’s going to be a tough road for him. Compound that with the fact that he is not a PG, but a natural 2 guard only makes it tougher. I think his potential is to be a Nate Robinson type scorer off the bench, but I don’t ever see him being more than an 8^th or 9^th man at best.

Nate Wolters 6’5” 196 lbs. PG South Dakota St. – There’s some chatter he could sneak in at the end of the first round. He’s got the classic white guy from a mid major game going on. As a best case scenario he’s Luke Ridnour which is pretty good. I don’t know that he’s as good of a shooter though. He is also going to have trouble against NBA level athletes. Short arms don’t help with a wingspan of 6’3.75”. He may be able to work himself into a rotation guy, but I’d rather spend a pick that late on a guy with some upside.

So those are some of my predictions and opinions on most of the guys expected to be first rounders. Before the draft I will have my rankings of each player. Feedback welcome.