2013 NBA Draft Player Capsules

The 2013 NBA Draft is less than 24 hours away and I've been hard at work. I'll be honest, I didn't watch as much college basketball this year as I usually do, because I was very down on the talent pool (that will change next year) so I want to give a BIG shoutout to Draft Express for killing it with their video scouting reports. Also, Grantland did a great job with their NBA Draft Job Interview features. It feels like they were going for the Gruden QB camp but for basketball and I think it worked. I'm glad I got to see the Nike Hoop Summit game this year as a few of those Euro prospects are rated as first rounders in this draft. These are not final rankings of the players, but my own report on their game and future. I will be ranking them at some point before the draft. All the heights are with shoes on. Leggo.

Nerlens Noel 7’0” 206 lbs. PF Kentucky– Noel reminds me of a less powerful Dwight Howard. He has a ton of length and athleticism, but lacks touch/skills to be a franchise player. He’s already a great defensive player and I love his hustle and anticipation on that side of the ball, but when people say he doesn’t have much of an offensive game, they’re not kidding. He will be a great pick and roll guy who can finish at the rim, but I don’t see him ever developing a good offensive game. He has no jump shot and can’t hit free throws, which will hurt him in close game situations. Having said all that, he’s 6’11”  and change with a huge wingspan and elite athleticism. I have no doubt he will put on the weight he needs to be effective. I believe he will be an NBA all-star someday, but it might take a while.

Alex Len 7’1” 255 lbs. C Maryland – A guy with his size will always find a place in the NBA. At 7’1” with a 7’3.5” wingspan he’s a true center in the league. He has a nice offensive game with some advanced moves, but he needs to learn to use his left hand. He’s also pretty decent on defense, but can get caught ball-watching. He is not as aggressive or nasty as I think a guy with his size should be and this will limit his upside. The upside is there though. He can impact a game on both ends, but will need to add weight to hang with NBA bigs. He is getting top-5 hype and I believe his upside is worthy of that, but he has a lot of things to work on. Injuries are a concern going forward for a guy with size as well. He may make one all-star team, but I would bet against it. I think he will have similar value to Tiago Splitter.

Victor Oladipo 6’4” 213 lbs. SG Indiana– The darling of the draft. Evaluators seem to love this guy and it’s easy to see why. He’s a hard worker who has improved so much in his time at Indiana. He’s also extremely likeable and seems to always give the right answer to questions. The best thing about Oladipo is that he already has a couple of pro-skills that will translate. He can be a defensive stopper and has the athleticism and length to do it in the NBA. His shot has improved quite a bit, but still needs a lot of work. He reminds me of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in that he’s a hard worker who defense is ahead of his offense. In a draft that isn’t top-heavy he should be a top-5 pick.

Anthony Bennett 6’7” 239 lbs. PF UNLV– He’s quite a talent with the size/skills/athleticism he possesses. I’m really high on Bennett, as I see some Zach Randolph in his game. He is the modern power forward, with a developing outside game and a face up post game. His defense worries me, as he looks lazy right now and doesn’t really block shots. Still, his shooting can space the floor and keep defenses honest, which amplifies his ability to drive to the basket. I believe Bennett will make a few NBA All-Star teams and has a chance to be the best player out of this draft.

Trey Burke 6’1” 187 lbs. PG Michigan– The more I look and learn about Burke the more I like him and his future. The best things about him are his fearlessness and his ability to knock down NBA range 3s. He also has shown he can work the pick and roll very well, which will suit him at the next level. Plays with a chip on his shoulder and improved a lot from his freshman to sophomore year, bringing the Wolverines to the title game. He’s only 6’0”, which hurts him, but has long arms. He will need to put weight on to defend stronger guards. I think he has the ability to run a team and while I don’t think he will ever be a top-5 PG in the NBA, I think he can be a top-15.

Ben McLemore 6’5” 189 lbs. SG Kansas – Reminds me a lot of Rudy Gay coming out of school. The same questions come up. We know he’s a gifted athlete who can shoot it, but does he have the mentality to be a go-to guy. Ben showed a lot of flashes at Kansas, but never proved that on a consistent basis. He may have the highest upside in the draft. It’s going to take the right team and environment to bring out the best in him. I, also think McLemore has some bust potential as he may never be more than Brandon Rush if he goes to the wrong situation. I think he will end up in the middle of the predictions and I see Rudy Gay as the type of career he will have. Team and coaching staff around him will dictate his future more so than other upper-echelon prospects.

Otto Porter 6’8.5” 198 lbs. SF Georgetown – This kid will be a good glue guy for any team. Has great intangibles and teammates are going to like playing with him as he is an unselfish player. Makes all the hustle plays and the little things happen that don’t show up in a box score. He also has good size and length for the NBA SF. For all the good things Porter brings to the table, he’s not perfect. He’s an average NBA athlete and still needs to add about 30 pounds to his frame. His lack of explosiveness/quickness does limit his ceiling and for this reason I don’t think a team should take him in the top-3 this year. I think the Tayshaun Prince comp is pretty accurate and I can see him having a very similar career. He will carve out a career for a long time, but probably will never make an all-star team. Maybe a 3^rd team all-NBA in a career year. Still, he would be a good addition to any team.

Dennis Schroeder 6’2” 165 lbs. PG Germany– My man-crush of the draft. I didn’t even know who he was before the Nike Hoop Summit game. If you watch highlights of this kid, it’s easy to see the potential he has. At 6’2” with a 6’8” wingspan he has good size, just needs to add weight, which he can do with his frame as he’s only 19. I don’t understand why he’s not a lock to be a top-10 pick. He has more potential than any other PG in this draft. His jump shot needs some work, but he has good vision and a tight handle. His comp is definitely Rajon Rondo right now, who was also undervalued on draft day. He needs a few years to develop, but I believe he can be a high-end starting PG in the league.

CJ McCollum 6’3” 197 lbs. PG Lehigh – A high character kid with a lot of talent on offense. The NBA always needs shooters and this kid can not only shoot, but score in a lot of different ways. He definitely needs to put on some weight to be able to finish through contact and in transition at the next level, but I think he can. Definition of a combo guard. I don’t see any all-star games in his future, but I think he will be an impactful rotation player.

Cody Zeller 7’0” 230 lbs. PF Indiana– Probably would have been a top-10 pick last year, but gave scouts a year to pick his game apart. Zeller’s got a good offensive game with an array of post moves. He’s also working on extending his range, which is something he’s going to need to do, because he doesn’t have the athleticism or length to be a great post scorer. NBA athleticism is going to take away a lot of his game, but he’s a smart guy who will make adjustments. His defense is lacking in both quickness and strength, so he will never be a plus defender. He also lacks the nastiness that it takes to be able to bang with big guys. He reminds me of Spencer Hawes. No all star games, but can be a solid starting big man if his game continues to grow.

Michael Carter-Williams 6’6” 184 lbs. PG Syracuse – He’s a triple threat of common names. Everyone loves a tall PG and at 6’6” he would be among the tallest. MCW is definitely a true PG with good court vision, with his height helping him to see the floor. He’s also a good perimeter defender and would work well with a team that had a small 2 guard. He has a slight frame that isn’t built to finish well in traffic. He also has proven turnover-prone with a lot of dumb mistakes. Those mistakes are correctable though. His jump shot also needs work. He has good form, but could use a little more lift. This is a shot he is going to have to learn to hit when defenses go under screens. It’s clear he knows this as he did take the shots when the opportunity was presented which is a good sign. If MCW is surrounded by some athletic guys and good outside shooters he will look good. As a pass-first guy he is going to need talent around him to bring out the best of his game. Hoping we don’t have the next Reece Gaines here, but I could see a poor man’s Shaun Livingston (if he stayed healthy). I still think he’s the third best PG in this draft behind Burke and Schroeder.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6’6” 204 lbs. SG Georgia– It would be quite the rarity for a guy whose team didn’t make the tourney, not by fault of injury, to be a lottery pick. Kentavious could be that guy and that concerns me. Let’s start with the positives. The kid has pro moves and looks like a confident shooter. Reminds me a little of Jordan Crawford. He’s got the size and athleticism to be a great player, I just don’t know that he has the IQ. He takes a lot of bad shots, and I know he was on a bad Georgia team that wanted him to do a lot, but I would still like to have seen better decision-making. I think he can make a positive impact on a rotation, but he needs to polish a lot of things first. Not a top-10 pick to me, but after that the pick could be warranted.

Shabazz Muhammed 6’6” 222 lbs. SF UCLA– I’m glad I got to see him in college for a year before having the forecast his future. He was the number 2 player in his high school class coming in, but probably should have been top 15 in the class he should have graduated in. I just don’t like this kid and don’t think he’s a winner. Sure, he has some pro skills, but he just seems like a chemistry killer waiting to happen. If he gets on a team with some vets, he has a chance to be a decent rotation guy, but I don’t see a star here.

Giannis Adetokunbo 6’9” 196 lbs SF Greece– The mystery man of the draft. I’m not even sure I spelled his name right. I don’t think the Indian kid who won the spelling bee this year (probably) could spell his name. His future is impossible to predict. He plays in a league that is a little better than high school teams, but not as good as NCAA. There is footage, but it’s hard to project what he does in those games to an NBA team. The only thing that’s clear is that he is years away from contributing. From the footage I’ve seen, it’s easy to see why scouts get excited about his upside. Giant hands, which makes for a good handle. He’s a good passer and team guy. His defense is also great for his age and is aided by his length. His shot scares me a bit as he gets very little lift and has a low release on it. This is something he is going to need to change. He only just turned 18, but there is clear upside here. I wouldn’t take him in the lottery, but after that he’s worth a flier as someone you can leave in Europe for a year as long as they don’t leave him there too long. He needs better competition and the coaches here to teach him what he needs to succeed. Could be the next Lamar Odom. Still might be growing too.

Steven Adams 7’0” 255 lbs. C Pittsburgh – You can’t teach seven feet. Also has a 7’4.5” wingspan. An intriguing prospect who picked up the game late. It shows as he is definitely going to be a project for whoever drafts him. There is potential here and I think it can be developed, but he has to get some very basic fundamentals of the game down before he will earn more than a few minutes a night. Would be a good D-League candidate. I don’t see a big-time player here, but someone who can come off the bench as a backup big man. Tiago Splitter-lite is his likeliest outcome in my opinion (yes I realize I’ve made two Tiago references. Best name in the NBA.).

Shane Larkin 5’11.5” 171 lbs. PG Miami– I like his personality and bloodlines (Barry’s kid). He also has tremendous leaping ability and is very quick. He’s able to get to the basket well and he can run the pick and roll very well, with some really nice passes out of it. The downside is a big one with him only being 5’11” with a slightly smaller wingspan. He won’t be able to cover taller guards well. The kid can shoot though and the league is always in need of shooters. He seems to have the work ethic to succeed. I can see a JJ Barea like career for him if he keeps working. He shouldn’t be a starting PG in this league though.

Sergey Karasev 6’7” 197 lbs. SF Russia - Karasev is a coach’s son which would explain his high basketball IQ. An unselfish player who seems to value team play rather than the hero ball we’ve seen at times in the NBA (looking at you Carmelo). His shot is perfect. NBA teams are on the look out for guys who can hit the 3 like this kid, so he should have no problems fitting in. He reminds me of Chase Budinger and I can see him having a similar impact. His defense needs work and he needs to add a lot of weight right now, but this can be done as he’s only 19. Whoever drafts him this year will most likely stash him for a year.

Kelly Olynyk 7’0” 234 lbs. PF Gonzaga– Seems like a nice guy, but he has a low ceiling. He’s a 7 footer, yes, but he’s a below average athlete and has a wingspan that’s the same as most NBA SGs and SFs (6’9.75”). This is the perfect example of a guy who succeeded at the college level, whose skills don’t look highly translatable to me. My other big problem with Olynyk is that he’s already 22 and just had his first good season on the college level. Personally, I think this kid won’t be getting a second contract in the NBA.

Glen Rice Jr. 6’6” 211 lbs. SG D-League – Well you gotta love the bloodlines. And, yes, he can shoot the 3. Spot-up or off the dribble. Has great mechanics. And, yes, he’s athletically gifted. Those two things alone should make him a solid rotation player in the league. You can see so much potential in his offensive game. The red flags are glaring though. Seems allergic to defense and he won’t be making any hustle plays unless he thinks they will be on Sportscenter. He’s the quintessential guy in need of a good organization to bring out the best in him. If he goes to the Kings or Bobcats, his career might be short-lived. He could have a Jamal Crawford like career, but it really does hinge on where he ends up.

Lucas Nogueira 7’0” 220lbs. PF Brazil – An interesting prospect because of his size and leaping ability. He’s young, raw, and frail, but he’s in a good situation playing in the Spanish League. Whoever drafts him would be smart to leave him over there for a year or two. He won’t be able to handle contact in the NBA. There has been red flags with him such as his love for the game and missed practices which is always scary. It’s difficult to project his future because he’s so far from a finished product. If he puts on weight he could be a poor man’s Nerlens Noel actually. Someone who can protect the rim on D and attack it on offense. It’s going to take time though.

Tim Hardaway Jr. 6’6” 199 lbs. SG Michigan – He looks like an NBA player. He has prototypical size and an NBA pedigree. I like his game and his potential to get better in a lot of different areas while he’s in the league. He’s a nice run-and-jump athlete, but not as good laterally and lacks a first step. Unlike his father, Hardaway Jr. lacks floor vision. With his ability to draw in defenders he frees up other teammates, but he doesn’t seem to find them. Most of his shortcomings are coachable and workable. I like his chances of sticking in the league for a long time as an important rotation guy. Maybe a seventh man, possibly a little better if he can make necessary improvements and adjustments.

Reggie Bullock 6’7” 200lbs. SF North Carolina – The NBA is starting to appreciate 3 point shooters and defense again, which means Bullock is coming into the league at the right time. A silky shooter with great mechanics. His game looks very similar to Danny Green right now, another former Tar Heel. If he were more athletic, we could be talking about the next Paul George, but as he is now, he will be just fine. He’s also a feisty defender which I like and I fully expect him to be a nice rotation guy in the league. Good value in the second half of the first round and could be a weapon to a playoff team his rookie year.

Isaiah Canaan 6’0” 188 lbs. PG Murray St. – His ability to score is his meal ticket to the NBA. He seems pretty one-dimensional in that respect. At only 6 feet it’s going to be a tough road for him. Compound that with the fact that he is not a PG, but a natural 2 guard only makes it tougher. I think his potential is to be a Nate Robinson type scorer off the bench, but I don’t ever see him being more than an 8^th or 9^th man at best.

Nate Wolters 6’5” 196 lbs. PG South Dakota St. – There’s some chatter he could sneak in at the end of the first round. He’s got the classic white guy from a mid major game going on. As a best case scenario he’s Luke Ridnour which is pretty good. I don’t know that he’s as good of a shooter though. He is also going to have trouble against NBA level athletes. Short arms don’t help with a wingspan of 6’3.75”. He may be able to work himself into a rotation guy, but I’d rather spend a pick that late on a guy with some upside.

So those are some of my predictions and opinions on most of the guys expected to be first rounders. Before the draft I will have my rankings of each player. Feedback welcome.