Ender's Game - The Wiggins for Love Deal

LeBron James is officially back in Cleveland and he has already turned GM David Griffin into his puppet. I believe that if LeBron hadn't pushed for the win-now team, that the Cavs would hold onto Andrew (Ender) Wiggins to see what they have. Now, it looks like it will be another what-if footnote in NBA history. (For those that don't get the Ender's game reference, I highly recommend the book. It's about a kid genius phenom in the future who is being trained to lead an army to save mankind. His name is Andrew Wiggin, nicknamed Ender. This book was written in 1985. The parallels are almost prophetic if basketball was the same thing as saving the world.)

People generally sit in one camp or the other as far as the Wiggins/Love trade goes. Some believe with LeBron turning 30 this year and Love squarely in his prime, it makes more sense not to waste any of LeBron's prime waiting for Wiggy to develop, as this will take years. Kevin Love is a proven commodity and top-ten player who will rebound everything and space the floor. The stretch 4 is a big thing for LeBron and will really complement his skills. They can be a force together for years.

The other camp believes that it makes more sense to hold onto Wiggins and his cheap contract. This will open up cap space to pursue other guys for at least the next 3 years. Although he's young, you could argue that Andrew's skills, however raw they are at this point, might be a better fit. He's young enough to play all the minutes you want, could spell James and reduce his minutes, and he can defend the wing. Imagine James and Wiggins as perimeter defenders. They could lock up a team's best 1,2,3, or 4. Of course, it would take him time to learn NBA defenses, but you can't argue he doesn't have the raw talent to do so. Another cool thing to think about is Kyrie surrounded by James and Wiggy. It could be the new lob city. I don't know if it's the intrigue of seeing the best player in the world in his prime and the best wing prospect we have seen since KD play together. It could be. I don't think I've seen a situation like that before. The closest comp would have to be David Robinson and Tim Duncan teaming up and winning the championship in Timmy's rookie year, but even then there are two major differences. Duncan was a polished senior who was ready to dominate and they were both big men. Still, it would have been cool to see two of the best athletes in the game mesh and Wiggin's game flourish under the best mentor he could ask for. It's not to be.

I'm finally getting to my point here. Although selfishly, I would like to see Wiggy and Bron for a while, I get why Love is a better choice right now. The main problem I have is WHY IS CLEVELAND JUST THROWING IN ANTHONY BENNETT AND A FUTURE NUMBER 1 PICK?!?! From a leverage standpoint, Cleveland has all of it. Minnesota has made it clear that Andrew Wiggins is the apple of their eye and now all current proposals pale in comparison, even if Golden State decided to throw in the splash bro. If Cleveland told Minnesota that they want Love, but they are only getting back Wiggins and some salary flotsam to make the deal work for Love, do you really think Minnesota would consider this a deal breaker? Sure, they would sit in a power stance and bluff that they aren't doing it unless they get more, but even Minnesota's owner has made it clear that he wants Wiggins. They would ultimately take this deal because it's already a great deal. Wiggins alone will be the best haul a team has ever received for a superstar who is in the last year of his deal and has made it clear the Mini Apple ain't cutting it. Say what you want about Bennett, but he was the number 1 pick last year. Maybe he should have gone a little lower (I thought Noel should have been the pick, more about that later), but the kid does have potential. He can shoot the 3 and rebound. He looked a lot better in Summer League and would be a great guy to bring off the bench. He should not be some throw-in for Minnesota.

And then a number 1 pick to boot? Cleveland has made this mistake before. They mortgaged their future when LeBron was there in an effort to keep him happy and the roster turned ugly quick. LeBron saw that and bolted. Could not blame him one bit. The Cavs don't need to add all of this in the trade. They can use the depth Bennett would give them and a future number 1 pick is not to be thrown away. But, this is going to happen and Cleveland will certainly profit in the short-term. We may see this really harming them down the road though.

Right as I am about to tip my cap to Flip Saunders for killing this trade (said no one ever) I see news that Philly, those damn vultures, are coming in the deal. It looks like they will be making a smaller scale move similar to the big one of this deal. The proposed trade has them sending Thaddeus Young, with 2 years left on his deal, for Anthony Bennett. This baffles me. Is Minnesota rebuilding or trying to make the playoffs? I mean, it kind of makes sense if your goal is to keep Rubio happy and staying in Minnesota, but Bennett has more long-term potential and his contract extension is a year away from Thad's. Philly just waited in the weeds. It didn't just dump Young for the first good deal. It patiently waited out the market and it looks like they will be coming away with the number 1 pick of last year's draft to add to Noel and MCW. Philly man...Hate on them all you want, but they are making perfect moves to set them up as a contender in a few years. With a core of MCW, Bennett, Noel (looked awesome in Summer League), and Embiid, that is a core a lot of teams would love to have. Add in Saric in two years and a likely top-6 pick in this upcoming draft and watch out. They remind me of Daenerys Stormborn from Game of Thrones (who I would give at least 3 fingers to have sex with just once). They have their baby dragons in a far away place. Too far to threaten the throne, but there are whispers of the future. When the dragons grow bigger and breathe fire, uh oh. When her journey takes her closer to those in power. Philly's coming. They aren't close enough yet to be a threat, but beware the baby dragons. They are coming...

2014 NBA Draft Grades

The 2014 NBA Draft is in the books. What a talented class. There weren't as many trades as I would have liked, but overall it was a good one and a fun first draft to see in person. So here I am, finally getting my draft grades up. Let me show you how it's done Chad.

Atlanta Hawks – Grade: B+

15^th Pick: Adrien Payne

43^rd Pick: Walter Tavares

48^th Pick: Lamar Patterson

Adrien Payne was a solid pick here. It gives them another big man that can shoot it from the outside, which is a great fit for the Hawks. They are trying to emulate the Spurs, with the coach coming from that system so this pick makes perfect sense. I really like him as a prospect and he is being put in a great situation. He's going to be a Payne in the ass for PFs to cover...yes I just did that.

Walter Tavares is a nice second round flier. He’s a huge dude who hasn’t been playing basketball long. Probably ends up getting stashed for 2 years. Why not? He dwarfed Adam Silver. Would have made Stern look like Tyrion Lannister.

I don’t see Lamar Patterson doing anything in the NBA, but that could be because I don’t know who the hell he is. I had to google him. Apparently, he played at Pittsburgh. Should have gone with someone I knew. Patric Young!

Boston Celtics – B

6^th Pick: Marcus Smart

17^th Pick: James Young

I, personally would have preferred Randle here, but Smart was a good choice with what was left on the board. He will be beloved in Boston as a guy who works hard and puts it all on the line for wins. This means the end of Rondo in Boston, which is sad. Smart will be a good player.

James Young I am less sure about. I thought he was a decent pick with what was left on the board. I thought Gary Harris would have made more sense for them as a two-way player who’s size disadvantage could have been covered up on D by Smart who can guard both positions. Young has upside and can shoot though. Celtics could use more shooters.

I was hoping the Cs got Embiid to slide down to them, but if not I wanted Gordon, so when both of those things didn’t happen, it kind of felt like they got robbed. They just tanked all season and didn’t get a franchise player in a draft full of them. It’s not the Celtics fault they have bad lottery luck, but it still sucks to see. At least now they have a backcourt to build around. Smart and Young. MAHKUS SMAHT!

Brooklyn Nets – D

44^th Pick: Markel Brown

59^th Pick: Xavier Thames

60^th Pick: Cory Jefferson

Props to the Nets for taking advantage of some cheap ass teams and buying three second round picks. Looks like Billy King made these picks because they all suck. None of them will ever make an impact. Quite the offseason for Brooklyn. What a catastrophe.

Charlotte Hornets – B+

9^th Pick: Noah Vonleh

26^th Pick: PJ Hairston

45^th Pick: Dwight Powell

55^th Pick: Semaj Christon

I think this was a good draft for the Hornets. They get outside shooting from both of their first round picks. Vonleh was a guy I wasn’t very high on and I’m not surprised he slid, but getting him at 9 is worth the risk. He had the most upside on the board.

Hairston is worth it that far back into the 1^st round. He has 3 and D potential.

The second round guys I have heard of. We’ll see how they do in summer league.

Chicago Bulls – D

11^th Pick Doug McDermott

49^th Pick Cameron Bairstow

I really didn’t like this move by Chicago. They traded the 16^th and 19^th pick for number 11 because they coveted Dougy McBuckets. This is stupid. This draft was loaded, and to trade two picks in the mid first to move up 5 spots makes no sense. I think McDermott will be a decent player, but question his fit in Chicago’s system as a guy who isn’t known for his defense. I thought Gary Harris would have been a great fit. I get that they wanted to shave payroll, but in this draft they could have taken another person and potentially traded for a future 1^st rounder. I hated the trade.

Bairstow probably won’t ever play more than 10 minutes in a game. He's white and he's not European. Later bra.

Cleveland Cavaliers – A-

1^st Pick Andrew Wiggins

33^rd Pick Joe Harris

Wiggins was the correct choice here. I think he will either be the best or second best player in the draft behind only Embiid if he’s healthy. He will be a great fit for the Cavs. Can we all agree that the Cavs should be disqualified from winning the 1st pick again for at least the next 30 years? Who's opposed to this??

Joe Harris is a good pick here. They drafted a guy like him last year in the first round in Sergey Karasev, but he played so little I’m not sure he didn’t fly back to Russia midseason.

Dallas Mavericks – N/A

No picks

Denver Nuggets – A-

16^th Pick Jusuf Nurkic

19^th Pick Gary Harris

41^st Pick Nikola Jokic

Nurkic is a guy people like and think have potential. I’m personally not a fan, but it makes sense to take a guy like this when you have another pick in the first round.

Gary Harris is the biggest steal in the first round. Will be a solid player in the league for many years. Don’t know why so many teams passed on him.

Jokic is a guy my sources say could have gone in the first round. Solid pick here (probably).

Awesome job by the Nuggets.

Detroit Pistons – B

38^th Pick Spencer Dinwiddie

I think Dinwiddie is a good pick here. He is coming off a torn ACL and really needs to recover 100% because he can’t afford to lose any athleticism. The guy is already a below average athlete. I think Spencer has 3 and D potential though with the ability to be a secondary ball handler. Also has great mustache swag. Good pick here.

Golden State Warriors – N/A

No picks

Houston Rockets – A-

25^th Pick Clint Capela

42ns Pick Nick Johnson

I really like the Capela pick here. He has a lot of defensive potential and is a big time athlete. Thought he should have went about 10 spots higher. Also works for Houston because they can leave him overseas for a year or two to hold their cap space. One of my favorite picks in the draft.

Nick Johnson is another guy I like. Played well as the guy for Arizona and may have gone much higher if the Cats didn’t lose that elite 8 game vs Wisconsin. Can be a decent energy guy/back up ball handler off the bench of he continues to develop.

Indiana Pacers – F

Sold their only pick at 57 to the Knicks for cash. Cheap bastards.

Los Anglees Clippers - D

28^th Pick Chris Wilcox

Didn’t we already have a Chris Wilcox in the league? Anyway I think this kid's a bust. They could have taken a serviceable big man to play behind Blake like Patric Young. Reggie Bullock is supposed to play the shooter off the bench role and he barely got minutes. What’s going to happen to a poor man’s version of him?

Los Angeles Lakers – A-

7^th Pick Julius Randle

46^th Pick Jordan Clarkson

Randle was the best player on the board and is one of the most NBA ready guys in the draft. He will fit in perfectly on this team. Can be their go-to presence down low. Would have been a higher pick in a less loaded draft so the Lakers picked a good year to suck. Great pick and fit.

Clarkson might make the roster seeing as how they have no one else. He can’t shoot, but has some smoothness. Don’t know that he lasts in the league for more than a few years unless he greatly improves that shot. Has funky mechanics so it will take work.

Memphis Grizzlies – B-

22^nd  Pick Jordan Adams

35^th Pick Jarnell Stokes

I’m not really an Adams guy, but it’s not surprising that Memphis took him here. He grades out well in analytical measures. I don’t think his skills translate that well. Outside shooting is their major need and he’s a mid-range guy. Maybe they took him purely for the nickname Grizzly Adams. Only works in Memphis. I respect that.

Stokes is a guy that is getting some sleeper buzz. Definitely fits the role of an energy rebounder dude. Has a massive build and a nose for the ball. Can be a DeJaun Blair type. Like this pick.

Miami Heat – A-

24^th Pick Shabazz Napier

Solid trade for Miami. Shabazz is exactly the kind of guy they need. And if it helps bring LeBron back, then that’s a bonus. Has steadily improved every year and even though he is small, he will make an impact on this team. Don’t know that he will ever be worthy of a starting position, but can be an excellent backup and a great fit for Miami.

Milwaukee Bucks – A-

2^nd Pick Jabari Parker

31^st Pick Damien Inglis

36^th Pick Johnny O’Bryant

Jabari wanted to go here and he’s a perfect fit for the Bucks because nobody else ever wanted to go here. They had to take him. Embiid was too much of an injury risk and Exum is too big of an unknown. Parker has a lower ceiling than those guys, but will certainly average 20+ a game, possibly starting in year 1. His defense is terrible to be nice, but with Giannis and Sanders there to cover up mistakes with their condor-like wingspans, he will have a large margin for error. Bucks can make a leap next year.

Inglis is a nice pick here. Just turned 19 a month ago. Has no speakable offense whatsoever, but can be a wing stopper on D. I see him right now as a less athletic poor man’s Iguodala and I really like the pick here. Just stash him for a year or two and hope his shot develops.

Johnny O’Bryant sounds like a restaurant name.

Minnesota Timberwolves – B-

13^th Pick Zach Lavine

40^th Pick Glenn Robinson III

53^rd Pick Alessandro Gentile

Lavine isn’t a guy I have a lot of faith in. I understand it from Minnesota’s perspective. He’s a high upside player that can shoot from outside. Not a lot of players want to play there (including him it seems), so to find stars they need to take more risk in the draft. I just think he’s a bonehead.

G-Rob 3 is a steal here. I can see him having a similar impact to his former college teammate and NBA son Tim Hardaway Jr. He’s big, athletic, and has upside. I believe he will develop nicely.

Don’t know jack about Gentile. Weird name.

New Orleans - C

47^th Pick Russ Smith

New Orleans traded Pierre Jackson to get this pick, which I don’t understand. He seemed to be developing nicely in the D-league and certainly would have been an upgrade to their back up PGs (Rivers, Brian Roberts?) Either way, I like Russ Smith this late in the draft. He’s undersized, but he’s a gamer. Could be a nice sparkplug off the bench.

New York Knicks – A-

34^th Pick Cleanthony Early

51^st Pick Thanasis Antetokounmpo

57^th Pick Louis Labyrie

So fresh and so Cleanthony didn’t go as Early as people thought. Probably because he’s already 23. That’s like 60 in NBA draft years and 107 in celeb years. I like this pick for the Knicks. Early is one of the best finishers in the draft. Big-time leaper who will do well with a team that likes to run. Very solid pick here.

Thanasis should thank his brother because that’s what put him on the map. He brings a lot of energy, athleticism and defense and will be an excellent role player. I believe he has some untapped potential as well. Another good pick.

I’d be lying if I said I knew anything about Louis Labia.

Phil Jackson just came in hot!

Oklahoma City Thunder – C

21^st Pick Mitch Mcgary

29^th Pick Josh Huestis

I don’t like doubting Sam Presti in the draft. He nailed Westbrook and Harden and had a nice pick last year with the Big Kiwi Steven Adams. Maybe they saw McGary as a replacement for Nick Collison. This was a guy that was supposed to be a lottery pick last year after all. Not a bad spot for him. Not my preferred pick though.

Huestis seems exactly like Roberson who they drafted last year. They like their wing defenders and maybe this is supposed to be a Sefolosha replacement down the road. Don’t think he was worthy of a 1^st round pick though. Too many other guys on the board with more upside.

Orlando Magic – B+

4^th Pick Aaron Gordon

10^th Pick Elfrid Payton

56^th Pick Roy Devyn Marble

I thought for sure they were taking Exum here. Would have been a perfect fit next to Oladipo. Instead, they break my heart and take Gordon who I wanted for the Cs. I think Gordon will be an excellent player, but I am not crazy about the fit. Orlando is loaded up with defenders, but lack offense. Gordon would be their main rim protector though and I can’t fault them too much for taking a guy I believe will have a great career.

Payton was another good pick and the Magic look to have their PG of the future. It was a costly trade that loses them a future first rounder to move up two spots, but Payton seems like a sure thing. Still, without Afflalo, this team lacks offensive punch and really is devoid of outside shooting. Will be the best young defensive backcourt in the game though.

The only thing I know about Marble is that his ancestors created a very nice Rye bread that causes public robberies of old women. That has to count for something.

Philadephia 76ers – A

3^rd Pick Joel Embiid

12^th Pick Dario Saric

32^nd Pick K.J. McDaniels

39^th Pick Jerami Grant

52^nd Pick Vasilije Micic

54^Th Pick Nemanja Dangubic

58^th Pick Jordan McCrae

They broke my heart. I suppose you either love Sam Hinkie or hate him. Personally, I think he is doing an excellent job so far in doing exactly what the NBA rewards, bottoming out and accruing high draft picks. He took both guys I wanted for the Cs, which turned out to be a pipe dream for Boston (and me). 

Embiid has the highest upside of anyone in the draft. I have to believe the 6ers did their due diligence before selecting him at 3. I think he was a pretty obvious pick here, but not everyone agrees. Could be a franchise changer and would give Philly two mobile rim protectors with Noel coming in this year.

Saric was another guy I really liked. Philly is just the kind of team that can afford to wait the 2 years for him. I think he will be worth the wait and will give Philly even more size, which they seem to have an abundance of at every position. What a great move by Hinkie to take Orlando’s guy Payton at 10 knowing they coveted him and trading him for their future first round pick. World class gamesmanship there.

Too many second round picks. McDaniels and Grant have potential and will get minutes right away. Big time athletes. Also, stashing a couple guys makes sense. 

I’ve heard of the Vaseline guy.

Philly will be a powerhouse in the East in about 3-4 years. They are building a championship level team through the draft and with the patience of a saint. This is the right move for the franchise.

Phoenix Suns – C-

14^th T.J. Warren

18^th Pick Tyler Ennis

27^th Pick Bogdan Bogdanovic

50^th Pick Alec Brown

I’m not a Warren guy so I hate this pick. Thought there were several players still on the board that should have gone before him. I could be wrong though, who really knows.

I don’t get the Ennis pick either. If there is one position they are completely set at it is PG. I thought they should have addressed other needs instead of drafting a guy they view as a backup. I like Ennis as a player, but am not crazy about the fit.

Alec Brown will end up sliding out of this league like Alex Mack when she turned into a puddle. I miss that show. At least he got drafted.

Portland Trailblazers – N/A

No Picks

Sacramento Kings – C-

8^th Pick Nik Stauskas

Elfrid Payton seemed like the easy pick here with Isaiah Thomas treated as a guy they don’t think can be a starting PG in this league. Instead, they take a guy that can shoot the lights out. Like Ben McLemore. Same position and everything. I don’t understand this pick. I don’t think Stauskas was worthy of such a high selection in such a loaded draft. Yes, he can shoot and can handle the ball a bit, but he was a bad defender in college. How is he going to manage in the NBA? I have no idea what the Kings are doing. Doesn’t look like their little crowdsourcing project worked very well. I didn't go to MIT, but I can tell you they will regret this one.

San Antonio Spurs – A

30^th Pick Kyle Anderson

Talk about a perfect fit. Anderson will get to learn under the best coach in the game who knows exactly how to utilize the strengths of his players and mask the weaknesses. Anderson is a niche kind of player who can be the main ball handler when Parker is on the bench. I really like this pick.

Toronto Raptors - B

20^th Pick Bruno Caboclo

37^th Pick Deandre Daniels

Yes, THE Bruno Caboclo! Everyone in the crowd was very confused by this, including myself. Never heard of him, but I did watch some grainy youtube videos and I have to say…I kind of get it! With the impact Giannis had in his first year, this pick makes a lot of sense. This kid has a big time upside and I’m actually surprised he didn’t get more coverage. There are rumors both ways that there were teams that may have taken him before the Raptors next pick and, perhaps, not at all. I don’t fault this pick though and Masai is generally a guy who knows what he’s doing. Could pay off big in a few years.

Daniels is also a solid pick here who can be a rotation piece.

Utah Jazz – A

5^th Pick Dante Exum

23^rd Pick Rodney Hood

They had to take Exum here, who will pair nicely with Burke in the backcourt. He already has like 5 Foot Locker commercials. People are a sucker for the Aussie accent. Perfect pick for Utah. He must hate that he's there though. Nobody really wants to ever go to Utah, the state of watered down alcohol.

Hood was a nice get this late in the draft as well. Shooting is at a premium and Hood has one of the smoothest shots in the draft.

Utah just made themselves a force in the near-future.

Washington Wizards – F

Sold the 46^th Pick (Jordan Clarkson) to the Lakers for cash. Ted Leonsis (the owner) is a fucking moron. Nice fully guaranteed 5 year deal for Gortat by the way ya dumb fucks.

And that's that. Hope I see some comments from some of you (looking at you Goldstein). The 2015 draft is less than a year away! Jahlil Okafor is looking like the next player teams may tank for. Let #ChokethForOkafor begin!

2014 NBA Draft Ratings

For more in-depth analysis on these guys, check out my player capsules article. The way I rank players is in three ways. Ceiling, floor, and final grade. Pretty simple. The tiers are based on the number grade each prospect gets. I will introduce that here. This class is looking MUCH stronger than last year's, which I think was Josh's favorite draft since 2000. Anthony Davis is the best most recent prospect drafted in 2012, grading out in my system as a 96. Nobody here hit Tier 1, but at least we have some guys that have potential to get there and some really good Tier 2 guys. I spent more time than usual looking at the top guys, so I will be honest, this isn't my top 30 ranked players, these are 30 players I have ranked. I will probably be missing some late round jewels and nice rotation pieces in the second round.

Grading system 1-100

A+/A 100-95 = Can't miss franchise player. Best player on championship contender potential. Perennial MVP candidate. (LeBron and Duncan would have been graded 100)

A/A- 94-90 = Potential multiple All-Star and All-NBA 1st and 2nd team potential. Potential franchise player. Might be good enough to be the best player on championship contender with good supporting cast or be and excellent sidekick (D-Wade and Westbrook)

B+/B 89-95 = Potential All-Star 1-3 times n career. All-NBA 3rd team potential. Average to low end second sidekick on championship contender. High-end 3rd best.

B/B- 84-80 = Might be 3rd best player on championship contender on high end. Solid starter on low end.

C+/C 79-75 = Starter on high end. Impactful rotation player on low end (6th or 7th man)

C/C- 74-70 = Potential rotation player on high end. Quality backup on low end.

D+/D 69-65 = Bench filler.

D/D- 64-60 = 12th man. Never seen this dude without warmups on.

F - 59-0 = Bust on high end. Bobby Thompson blowing out his knee after getting crossed over on the 0 end.

1. Andrew Wiggins 6'9" 200 lbs. SF Kansas
Ceiling 97          Floor 79          Grade 93

2. Joel Embiid 7'1" 245 lbs. C Kansas
Ceiling 98          Floor 65          Grade 93

3. Jabari Parker 6'9" 240 lbs. SF Duke
Ceiling 92          Floor 76          Grade 90

4. Dante Exum 6'6" 196 lbs. PG Australia
Ceiling 93          Floor 66          Grade 87

5. Aaron Gordon 6'9" 220 lbs. PF Arizona
Ceiling 90          Floor 76          Grade 86 


6. Julis Randle 6'9" 250 lbs. PF Kentucky
Ceiling 91          Floor 74          Grade 85

7. Marcus Smart 6'3" 227 lbs. PG Oklahoma St.
Ceiling 89          Floor 72          Grade 82

8. Gary Harris 6'4.5" 205 lbs. SG Michigan St.
Ceiling 85          Floor 71          Grade 80

9. Dario Saric 6'10" 220 lbs. PF Croatia
Ceiling 87          Floor 67          Grade 80

10. Noah Vonleh 6'9.5" 247 lbs. PF Indiana
Ceiling 91          Floor 64          Grade 77

11. Elfrid Payton 6'4" 185 lbs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Ceiling 86          Floor 64          Grade 77

12. Clint Capela 6'11" 222 lbs. Switzerland
Ceiling 87          Floor 67          Grade 75

13. Adrien Payne 6'10" 240 lbs. PF Michigan St.
Ceiling 82          Floor 69          Grade 75

14. Tyler Ennis 6'2.5" 182 lbs. PG Syracuse
Ceiling 81          Floor 68          Grade 75

15. Doug McDermott 6'8" 218 lbs. SF Crieghton
Ceiling 80          Floor 68          Grade 75

16. James Young 6'7" 213 lbs. SG/SF Kentucky
Ceiling 84          Floor 60          Grade 74

17. Rodney Hood 6'8.5" 208 lbs. SG/SF Duke
Ceiling 82          Floor 67          Grade 74

18. Nik Stauskas 6'6.5" 207 lbs. SG Michigan
Ceiling 80          Floor 66          Grade 73

19. Shabazz Napier 6'1" 175 lbs. UConn
Ceiling 82          Floor 67          Grade 72

20. Kyle Anderson 6'8.5" 230 lbs. SF UCLA
Ceiling 82          Floor 62          Grade 72

21. Glenn Robinson III 6'7" 211 lbs. SF Michigan
Ceiling 83          Floor 63          Grade 71

22. Jerami Grant 6'8" 214 lbs. SF Syracuse
Ceiling 82          Floor 64          Grade 70

23. Patric Young 6'10" 247 lbs. PF Florida
Ceiling 80          Floor 68          Grade 70

24. Thanasis Antetokounmpo 6'6" 205 lbs. Greece/D League
Ceiling 83          Floor 66          Grade 70

25. P.J. Hairston 6'5" 229 lbs. SG UNC/D League
Ceiling 81          Floor 60          Grade 69

26. Mitch McGary 6'10" 260 lbs. PF Michigan
Ceiling 80          Floor 60          Grade 69

27. Zach Lavine 6'6" 180 lbs. SG UCLA
Ceiling 88          Floor 50          Grade 68

28. Jusuf Nurkic 6'11" 280 lbs. C Bosnia
Ceiling 83          Floor 60          Grade 68

29. Jordan Adams 6'5" 209 lbs. SG UCLA
Ceiling 78          Floor 60          Grade 64

30. T.J. Warren 6'8" 220 lbs. SF NC St.
Ceiling 75          Floor 50          Grade 61

A few bullet points here.

• 2 guys posting over 95 upside and 7 over 90 is damn good.
• Wiggins has the highest floor due to his athleticism and skills.
• Embiid has higher upside slightly, but much lower floor because of injury concerns. This is why I take Wiggins first.
• Gary Harris will be a really good 2 guard and I think he's underrated right now. He shouldn't be lumped in with the Stauskas, Young, Hood group.
• Dario Saric will be worth the wait for a team outside the top 10.
• Vonleh has a really wide range of possibilities. I don't ever see him getting close to his projections though.
• Clint Capela will be a nice value outside the lottery. People are sleeping on him after a rough game at the Hoop Summit. Great size and athlete.
• I haven't seen this many good shooters in a draft in a very long time. Most of them can't play D though.
• I wanted to like Zach Lavine, but I think he's too dumb of a kid to ever come close to his massive potential. J.R. Smith is a best-case scenario.
• Nurkic is also very overvalued in my opinion. I just don't see it. He's an oaf.

I will be watching the draft live at Barclays tomorrow night. I'm up in the nosebleeds, but I will try to get some pics/vids. Next post will be after the draft. Most likely Tuesday. I'll be giving teams draft grades. It's very similar to what Chad Ford does, except I'm doing it.

2014 NBA Draft: Player Predictions of Some Likely First Rounders

We are less than 48 hours away right now from my Christmas (ironically, just a day after half-Christmas). The mid round is always a good place to find some good rotation pieces, but there is always a random all-star here and there, and some serious busts. Here are my thoughts on some of the guys projected to go in this range.

Elfrid Payton – 6’4” 185 lbs. PG Louisiana-Lafayette – The first thing that surprised me was how young he was for a guy who just completed his junior year. Elfrid is 3 weeks older than Embiid! Clearly we have a late bloomer on our hands, and it probably helped his game grow quicker that he went to a small school where he could be the best player and get reps. PGs coming out that can pass, but can’t shoot will always be compared to Rondo. This is no exception. He’s taller than Rondo and has the same long, wiry build, but surely won’t be as good. He doesn’t really have to be. There are some nice aspects about Payton’s game. He’s really quick, a pesky defender, and makes really nice passes in good spots for his teammates. That shot though…That’s going to be trouble. You can’t be a starting PG in the NBA without a jump shot to keep defenses honest. His lack of left hand is also troublesome. Guys in the league will just go under screens on him and pack the paint. It’s going to take time for him to potentially get a credible jump shot, so we really won’t know his outcome for a minimum 3 years. Ultimately, that’s what will dictate his success. How far along can he get the J. The form is a little strange, but not completely broken. He shoots it flat right now. There are tweaks to fix this, but it will take a lot of reps. By all accounts, he’s a good kid and a hard worker. The defense is way ahead of the offense right now, but could be a low-end starter in the league. Top 15 maybe if he gets a jump shot. Never top 10.

Gary Harris – 6’4.5” 205 lbs. SG Michigan St. – His ability to shoot the ball will make him stick in the league for a while. There is very little bust potential (unlike Bobby’s sister) with Gary Harris. His athleticism and size will surely limit his ceiling. He will never be a top-5 guy at his position even with the weak 2-guard crop currently in the NBA. There isn’t much creativity in his offensive game right now and he’s going to need to be with his average physical gifts. Two things I really like about Harris is that he is a hard worker and he’s a great defender. Has a knack for almost always picking the right time to gamble. I think his floor is as a 3 and D guy right now and I think his most likely outcome is Arron Afflalo. They are around the same size and both lack crazy quicks and hops, but I think his intangibles will be enough to get him to this level. I think any team outside the top-8 should consider this kid. Will probably get reps at PG in summer league. This could raise his ceiling if he shows enough ball skills to get minutes there. Not sure about that yet.

Zach Lavine – 6’6” 180 lbs. SG UCLA – Wow the kid is like a kangaroo! Or a dunkaroo (those were so good)! On par with Wiggins as an athlete. And he can shoot pretty well. That’s all nice and well, but the kid doesn’t know how to play the game. One of the lowest IQ players in the draft. Doesn’t pass the ball well and takes a lot of bad shots. Much like Bobby, he sounds pretty dumb when he talks too. Also, has a thin frame that doesn’t look like will add a lot of weight. Basically, this dude is soft as shit. He’s not tough, he doesn’t hustle, and he sucks at D. Obviously with athleticism like that, there is upside, but I don’t see him ever being more than a Gerald Green. Even that might not happen. Think this kid shouldn’t be taken in the top-20 in this draft. Upside might be worth it later, but I wouldn’t want him on my team. You get a few nice dunks, but this kid is way overrated.

Nik Stauskas – 6’6.5” 207 lbs. SG Michigan – Typical white guy. Can shoot the ball nicely and will be a great spot up shooter in the league. Terrible defender because he’s not long or quick enough to keep up with good athletes. Solid rotation guy here, but should never be a starter. Seems like a 20 minute a night guy to space the floor. White people.

Tyler Ennis – 6’2.5” 182 lbs. PG Syracuse – Kendall Marshall clone. Great passer and great poise. Has a nice handle and a decent jump shot. He’s not athletic enough to be a starting PG, but I think he can be a really good backup for a team that needs a distributor off the bench.

T.J. Warren – 6’8” 220 lbs. SF NC St. – Just watched his scouting video on Draft Express…man that was rough. A low IQ player with skills that don’t translate to the NBA. Has a gross looking jump shot that looks more like a sling shot. Ball practically touches his feet when he’s in his long ass wind up shooting motion. Warren is also soft as Sunshine’s stomach, which is basically softer than a bouncy house. Not a hustler. Big-time tweener. Anyone who wastes a 1^st round pick on this kid should be relieved of their GM duties immediately. BUST.

Rodney Hood – 6’8.5” 208 lbs. Duke SF – First thing I notice about Hood is that pretty ass shot. His mechanics remind me of KG with the high release, but also gets it off quick. And man that shot is wetter than Josh dipping in a neighbor’s pool uninvited. This will be his calling in the NBA. I also like that he’s an unselfish player and won’t just jack a shot up if it’s not the right play. The problem is he’s not tough and can’t finish at the rim. A very average athlete with a wingspan similar to an average PG. Rodney has a thin frame that will always make him weak at his position. On defense, he’s really fucking casual. Probably wears t shirts to interviews with his casual nature. That’s a big no no. When a screen is set on him, it’s like he gets sucked into it like a vacuum and doesn’t care about getting out. Bad bad bad. Will never be a 3 and D guy in this league. Hood is a member of the bizarro Zoolanders because he can’t go right. Either way, this kid has a pretty shot and will be a good rotation piece for a team picking outside the lottery who needs floor spacers.

Adrien Payne - 6’10” 239 lbs. PF Michigan St. – A very interesting prospect because he is already 23 years old. A lot of guys in this draft won’t be 23 by the time they start their second contract. I applaud Payne for staying in school because he has gotten so much better since he enrolled. Shot over 40% from 3 and really improved across the board in all facets. He likes running a pick and pop, which NBA teams will love to use him in. He’s a really good athlete with a 7’4” wingspan so the physical tools are there. The feel for the game is a little slow and probably will always have bouts of cluelessness, but with enough reps can be a very capable defender in a team scheme. The main question is how much better can he get? Right now, I think he could easily be a rotation guy for a team. Stretch 4s are en vogue right now. Apparently he has a lung condition as well so don’t think he can give you more than 20 solid minutes a night (19 more than Bob). I don’t think he gets too much better, but he’s already solid and worth a pick in the top 20.

James Young – 6’7” 213 lbs. SF Kentucky – Another lefty with a nice looking shot, quick release, and member of bizarro Zoolander squad. No right hand. He also seems to be a very streaky shooter and his defense is god awful in pretty much every area. The reason why I like him slightly more than Hood, who’s a very similar player, is that he has a long wingspan (7 feet) and is only 18 (duh, Young!). He has more upside, but definitely has a lot of bust potential too. If he gets with the right coach, they can fix some of that D stuff, because he has the length to bother people. His first few years will be a net minus on the floor because of this side of the ball until he improves greatly. I’m not sure which way this kid is gonna go. Most likely, ends up as a rotation guy off the bench to space the floor and be a spark plug.

Clint Capela – 6’11” 222lbs. PF Switzerland – Your typical raw athlete type. Wows you with his ability to run and jump, but his game (much like his country’s native cheese) has a lot of holes in it. If everything breaks right for Clint, he could be Serge Ibaka. He’s already a big-time rebounder and shot blocker, but Capela is also young and needs to learn the game. If everything breaks wrong for the kid, Bismack Biyombo 2.0 will have people mad at their GM. I don’t think he has the basketball awareness and IQ to get to Serge’s level, but he could certainly get to be a smaller Dalembert if he keeps working. His upside is high and I believe late lottery is where his range should start.  Definitely worth a flier for a team willing to wait.

P.J. Hairston – 6’5” 229 lbs. SG UNC castoff/D League – First thing I notice about P.J. is his eyebrows are the longest I’ve ever seen. They go to the side of his eye! That’s weird. Anyway, this kid is obviously a head case. Has times of laziness and just dumb plays. He can definitely shoot and can play through contact with his football player’s build, but he’s pretty one-dimensional. Could be a decent scorer off the bench, but has to clean up his attitude. Think there’s a decent chance he slides into the second round. I would pass on this guy like Rondo.

Jusuf Nurkic – 6’11” 280 lbs. C Bosnia – I don’t see what all the hype is about. He’s a big white guy. An unspectacular athlete who doesn’t show much touch around the basket. Why is this kid getting any looks before the second round?? Beats me. BUST.

Tomorrow night I am going to be getting into some guys that I think can be late steals and will post my grades on my top 30 and beyond. Sports!

2014 NBA Draft: Player Predictions of Projected Top 10

      We are finally close to this heralded draft class being picked by their new teams. I'm very bitter the Celtics didn't get a top 3 pick, but the lottery gods hate Boston and that's the way it always will be. Maybe they will pay us back in 2016 with Thon Maker, or perhaps Kevin Love this year? These are currently the projected top-10 guys. Not my top-10, but a top-10. After watching Draft Express scouting reports and NCAA games this season, this is how I project these 10 players.

1. Joel Embiid – 7’1” 245 lbs. C Kansas – One of the highest upside players I’ve seen come out in a while.  He has developed so rapidly in such a short amount of time. Embiid can do everything you need a big man to do on the basketball floor. He has good hands, nice touch, court vision, and already has some nice post moves. That’s just his offense. Defensively, he’s going to be a nightmare for the opposing team. Embiid will be a rim protector at 7’1” with a 7’5.5” wingspan and 9’5.5” standing reach, there won’t be a lot of shots he can’t get to. Package all of the size and skills into someone who may be the best athlete at his position once he comes in the league and the potential is scary. He moves so well on the court and is a fierce competitor who is not afraid of contact. With Oden there were some signs that even just running he could get injured, but I don’t have those same worries with Embiid. We have twice seen big guys go ahead of freak wing players in the draft and it not turn out well (Bowie and Jordan, and the aforementioned Oden and Durant), but let’s not forget, Embiid’s best comp also went ahead of Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon. Now I don’t think Wiggins will ever be Jordan, but Embiid can be Hakeem. I believe, as long as injuries don’t slow down his career that Joel Embiid will be the best player in this draft. Him and Anthony Davis could be battling for Defensive Player of the Year awards and MVPs in 5 years. Prime numbers: 21-12-3.5 (assists)-3 blocks.

2. Andrew Wiggins - 6’9” 200 lbs. SF Kansas – One of the most highly touted prospects since LeBron. Wiggins is a special player. He has the size and all the tools to be one of the best players in the game. The closest comp for him is definitely Paul George. Both are athletic freaks who can play lock down D, but have suspect handles and a developing jump shot. I think Wiggins is a lot farther along than George was at this level and think he can be a better version. His J is there, he just needs to keep working on it and add consistency. The biggest knock against him, and something we will be hearing a lot leading up to the draft is his lack of aggression. It is certainly something he will have to address, but he has time and people were saying the same thing about LeBron up until he won a chip. I think Wiggins is a high ceiling/high floor guy. There are no major weaknesses in his game that can’t be fixed and all of his positives translate so well at the next level. I have high hopes for him and think he will be a top-5 player in the league when he enters his prime. Prime numbers: 25-7-3-2 (steals)-1.5 (blocks) with some all-defensive teams as well.

3. Jabari Parker – 6’9” 240 lbs. SF Dule – The book on Parker is pretty spot on. He lacks the upside of Wiggins because he’s not as athletic and is a terrible defender. These are not things that are going to change on the NBA level. He’s a great offensive player who can light it up in so many different ways. Parker has an arsenal of moves that would make most pros jealous. This will translate well to the NBA. He is also an underrated athlete. I think once jabari gets into shape his athleticism will show. It’s tough being compared athletically to Wiggins who will come in and be a top 5 athlete in the league. The defense is a glaring weakness though and it needs to be addressed. There were times, coach K left him on the bench late in games because he simply got lost on defense.  This needs to be worked on and a lot. Look at the criticism James Harden is getting right now. It’s rightly deserved. I hope Jabari doesn’t end up with a youtube video of him acting as a matador to opposing offenses. The Carmelo comp is spot on to me. He will be a big-time scorer, but will also have a better attitude. Parker can be a ballstopper on offense, but not to the point of Carmelo levels. He will make the pass to an open teammate instead of shooting over double teams, but there will be some bouts of hero ball. I believe he is a level below Wiggins and Embiid, but should absolutely be the 3^rd pick. He will make several all-star teams and 2nd and 3^rd team NBA teams, but he won’t ever be good enough to be the best player on a championship team. Prime Numbers: 28-8 with 3 point range and not much else, especially on defense. Still pretty damn good.

4. Dante Exum – 6’6” 196 lbs. PG/SG Australia – The mystery man of the draft. At the young age of 18, Exum is such a tough player to evaluate, but everyone pretty much has him in their top-10 and I agree. He’s a good athlete with a good handle (though he is currently right-hand dominant) and a willing passer. He also has a great wingspan at almost 6’10”. Whoever drafts him is going to have to be patient with him, because it will take him a while to realize his full potential. The jump shot needs work, but it’s not broken, just a bit flat and inconsistent right now. He has potential to be an all-star in this league, but there is definitely some bust potential. If forced to guess how he will turn out, I could see a guy with prime numbers of 18-7-4 that will make a couple all-star teams in his prime years. Those prime years are so far away though.

5. Aaron Gordon – 6’9” 220 lbs. SF Arizona – I really like Aaron Gordon’s game. People keep throwing out the Blake Griffin comps, but I really see a lot of Joakim Noah in him. He plays with that passion and energy. He’s also one of the best defenders I’ve seen coming out of college. Clearly has both a high IQ for O and D. Always in the right spot. Obviously, he’s a freak athlete, which should nullify is shortish wingspan. The biggest knock on Gordon is his ability to score. He’s trying to do to much right now, but in the NBA, coaches will find a way to put him in the right spots to create buckets. His free throw shooting is also tragic, but can be fixed. It might take years (as we’ve seen with Griffin) but it’s doable. It is important to point out he has very little touch and his offensive game will never be above-average. The kid is an extremely hard worker, high-character guy and this will drive him to success. Probably won’t ever be a 20-10 guy, but he will be a great team guy that helps them win games. Don’t let his stats fool you. Aaron Gordon is going to be an integral piece to a team. Not worthy of a top-2 pick, but if he slides out of the top-8 somehow, he will be a steal. I like him best of the 3 PFs (Randle and Vonleh being the others). Prime Numbers: 16-9-3-2 blocks, 1-steal, great plus/minus numbers. Analytics guys will love him and can hopefully quantify his value to people who rely on counting numbers as a measuring stick of success.

6. Julius Randle – 6’9” 250 lbs. PF Kentucky – I’ll just say right now, the foot injury doesn’t concern me.  Moving on. The first thing you notice about Randle’s game is he is a beast. He has the strength to bang with NBA bigs right now. When he gets the ball in the post, generally puts his head down and goes to work. This works for and against him. He is going to have to pick his spots better in the L. His passing was sub-par and rarely found the open man when defenses collapsed on him. I think this is a correctable issue for him though. He also lacked moves down low and was very left-hand dominated. Really needs to work on getting that right hand down and become less predictable. Randle didn’t shoot much in college from the perimeter and this is something he will surely have to get better at to have defenses respect him and to space the floor. He actually shot pretty well in high school and I believe he will show that this is something he can do on the pro level. Obviously, he’s not a jump out of the gym athlete and his measurements are shorter than you would like at the 4, but I think he has solid defensive instincts and will be an adequate defender in a team scheme. Will certainly never make any all-defensive teams though. He’s got a great work ethic and this will carry him far in the NBA.  I think the Zach Randolph comp is a little off. Randolph has so many moves on offense. Randle does not. Randle is also a better athlete than Randolph, but most are. I see Julius Randle as a Demarcus Cousins type without the childish attitude. Not as skilled offensively, but a guy that can average 19 and 10 in the pros with range on his shot that people don’t know about yet. If he can get that J up and running, he will be an offensive force. There was a reason scouts thought he was a top-3 guy coming out of high school. Don’t sleep on him.

7. Marcus Smart – 6’3” 227 lbs. PG Ok. St. – There are a lot of big positives and negatives to Smart’s game and his potential is dependent on fixing some big problem areas. My favorite thing about Marcus is that he’s a warrior. He’s got a football player’s build and he knows how to use it in game situations. His rebounding will translate well and make him one of the best at his position at the next level. It doesn’t hurt that he has a 6’9” wingspan! He’s also a really good defender and there really isn’t a guard in the NBA who is going to overpower him. The bad things about him are that he’s not very shifty so quick guards will give him problems. He also lacks a handle and a reliable outside shot, which are two critical elements of the PG position. His jumper is really inconsistent and lacks good form. He also has some attitude questions and seems like the type that will bitch to refs a bit too much, but I think his passion is a net positive as a guy to fire up his teammates and be a good leader. His closest comp to me is somewhere between Russell Westbrook and Deron Willians. He’s not near the athlete Westbrook is (nobody really is) and not as natural of a passer as D-Will but he is a big time rebounder who uses his strength well and will put everything on the line to get a win. I don’t see Smart ever being a top-5 guy at his position, but if he improves on some of those weaknesses he could get close. Ultimately, I think he will be a top-18 PG and someone who brings intangibles. Prime numbers: 16-6-5-2 steals and a good perimeter defender.

8. Dario Saric – 6’10” 220 lbs. PF Croatia – I had heard a lot about Saric for a couple years now, but the more I saw him in game action the more impressed I was. He has a great feel for the game at age 20. The competition he’s playing against in the Adriatic League is a step above NCAA and he’s been spectacular there. He handles and passes the ball like a guard. Definitely rare for someone his size. He has demonstrated the ability to hit the 3 as well, which is going to make him a matchup problem for a lot of teams. Will be an excellent secondary ball-handler for any team that drafts him. He is going to depend on fit more than other prospects, because of his unique set of skills. No one will ever confuse him for a rim protector. His defense is him trying hard. His wingspan is equivalent to his size and he’s by no means a north-south athlete.  This will have a bigger impact in the pros, but Saric is a smart player who has the ability to work well as a team defender in the proper system. If he comes over this year, then I believe he should definitely be a top-10 pick. 6’10” players with guard skills don’t come along very often.  Also like the arrogance. Boris Diaw just did him a lot of favors, showing a forward who can succeed as a big secondary ball handler. That could be his future. Prime numbers: 14-7-5, below average defense, but above average 3 point shooter. Stretch 4 with floor vision is an asset.

9. Noah Vonleh – 6’9.5” 247 lbs. PF Indiana – He is what you would call a new age 4. I think the most promising thing about his game is his ability to shoot from the perimeter and out to the 3. Also has a deceptively good handle. This will make him a tough matchup for NBA big men. He also has crazy length, which will certainly help on the defensive end. Can play solid post D by just using verticality and standing reach. This will also help make up for some lack of athleticism. I was actually surprised he didn’t show more here, but he is a very average athlete. He moves well, but is a below-average leaper. This leads to him being a poor finisher. His offense down low is very basic and quite unpolished. Moves can be learned, but he needs to see the floor a lot better.  The kid must love apples, because he piles up turnovers. Definitely one of the worst passers I’ve ever seen. Struggles to find the open man and even screws up routine passes. He is going to need a coach that can really bring him up to speed here. Of course, I have to mention his rebounding. He will definitely average 10 a game in the pros with his length and hustle crashing the glass on both ends. Rebounding out of his area comes easy to him because of his length. He’s so young at only 18 that it makes it harder to project him. It’s almost unfair. There are Chris Bosh comps floating around and I can see that. I think a better comp might be a less athletic Serge Ibaka. Although I see the upside, Vonleh is not someone I would take in the top-6 as I am less bullish on him. I just don’t think he will ever have the IQ to be a top player at his position. He can be a good starter, but I don’t see all-NBA teams. I think his potential is being a bit overstated right now. I prefer Gordon and Randle. Prime numbers: 12-12-0 assists-1.5 blocks, 1 3 a game and a lot of turnovers. A floor stretching 4 is a great addition to any team, but don’t confuse him for a potential franchise player. That he is not.

10. Doug McDermott – 6’8” 218 lbs. SF Creighton – We all know McDermott is one of the best shooters in the game. He can come in to the NBA, where spacing is of paramount importance nowadays and be a spot up shooter. He will need to be more than that and I think he can. He has a nice mid-range game and a high IQ. Has been out-athleted his whole life so he has some crafty ways of counteracting this.  Will he be a good enough defender to be a net positive? Maybe. He has little explosiveness and lacks a wingspan. These will always be a significant disadvantage to Dougy. He’s a smart player though and I think he can become a below-average defender, rather than a black hole. It’s going to take a lot of work. I think his future in the league is as a rich man’s Matt Bonner. He will be a good rotation guy, but should not be starting for any team. I think late lotto is when it makes sense to start looking at these sorts of role players. Top-8 is ambitious. Prime numbers: 14-5-3 with 2.5 3s a game and terrible defense.

 

Next post I will be going into some guys that I think are undervalued and overvalued. Leave comments BEFORE the draft and not 2 years from now so we can compare opinions.