Tuesday, June 17, 2014

2014 NBA Draft: Player Predictions of Projected Top 10



      We are finally close to this heralded draft class being picked by their new teams. I'm very bitter the Celtics didn't get a top 3 pick, but the lottery gods hate Boston and that's the way it always will be. Maybe they will pay us back in 2016 with Thon Maker, or perhaps Kevin Love this year? These are currently the projected top-10 guys. Not my top-10, but a top-10. After watching Draft Express scouting reports and NCAA games this season, this is how I project these 10 players.

1. Joel Embiid – 7’1” 245 lbs. C Kansas – One of the highest upside players I’ve seen come out in a while.  He has developed so rapidly in such a short amount of time. Embiid can do everything you need a big man to do on the basketball floor. He has good hands, nice touch, court vision, and already has some nice post moves. That’s just his offense. Defensively, he’s going to be a nightmare for the opposing team. Embiid will be a rim protector at 7’1” with a 7’5.5” wingspan and 9’5.5” standing reach, there won’t be a lot of shots he can’t get to. Package all of the size and skills into someone who may be the best athlete at his position once he comes in the league and the potential is scary. He moves so well on the court and is a fierce competitor who is not afraid of contact. With Oden there were some signs that even just running he could get injured, but I don’t have those same worries with Embiid. We have twice seen big guys go ahead of freak wing players in the draft and it not turn out well (Bowie and Jordan, and the aforementioned Oden and Durant), but let’s not forget, Embiid’s best comp also went ahead of Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon. Now I don’t think Wiggins will ever be Jordan, but Embiid can be Hakeem. I believe, as long as injuries don’t slow down his career that Joel Embiid will be the best player in this draft. Him and Anthony Davis could be battling for Defensive Player of the Year awards and MVPs in 5 years. Prime numbers: 21-12-3.5 (assists)-3 blocks.

2. Andrew Wiggins - 6’9” 200 lbs. SF Kansas – One of the most highly touted prospects since LeBron. Wiggins is a special player. He has the size and all the tools to be one of the best players in the game. The closest comp for him is definitely Paul George. Both are athletic freaks who can play lock down D, but have suspect handles and a developing jump shot. I think Wiggins is a lot farther along than George was at this level and think he can be a better version. His J is there, he just needs to keep working on it and add consistency. The biggest knock against him, and something we will be hearing a lot leading up to the draft is his lack of aggression. It is certainly something he will have to address, but he has time and people were saying the same thing about LeBron up until he won a chip. I think Wiggins is a high ceiling/high floor guy. There are no major weaknesses in his game that can’t be fixed and all of his positives translate so well at the next level. I have high hopes for him and think he will be a top-5 player in the league when he enters his prime. Prime numbers: 25-7-3-2 (steals)-1.5 (blocks) with some all-defensive teams as well.

3. Jabari Parker – 6’9” 240 lbs. SF Dule – The book on Parker is pretty spot on. He lacks the upside of Wiggins because he’s not as athletic and is a terrible defender. These are not things that are going to change on the NBA level. He’s a great offensive player who can light it up in so many different ways. Parker has an arsenal of moves that would make most pros jealous. This will translate well to the NBA. He is also an underrated athlete. I think once jabari gets into shape his athleticism will show. It’s tough being compared athletically to Wiggins who will come in and be a top 5 athlete in the league. The defense is a glaring weakness though and it needs to be addressed. There were times, coach K left him on the bench late in games because he simply got lost on defense.  This needs to be worked on and a lot. Look at the criticism James Harden is getting right now. It’s rightly deserved. I hope Jabari doesn’t end up with a youtube video of him acting as a matador to opposing offenses. The Carmelo comp is spot on to me. He will be a big-time scorer, but will also have a better attitude. Parker can be a ballstopper on offense, but not to the point of Carmelo levels. He will make the pass to an open teammate instead of shooting over double teams, but there will be some bouts of hero ball. I believe he is a level below Wiggins and Embiid, but should absolutely be the 3rd pick. He will make several all-star teams and 2nd and 3rd team NBA teams, but he won’t ever be good enough to be the best player on a championship team. Prime Numbers: 28-8 with 3 point range and not much else, especially on defense. Still pretty damn good.

4. Dante Exum – 6’6” 196 lbs. PG/SG Australia – The mystery man of the draft. At the young age of 18, Exum is such a tough player to evaluate, but everyone pretty much has him in their top-10 and I agree. He’s a good athlete with a good handle (though he is currently right-hand dominant) and a willing passer. He also has a great wingspan at almost 6’10”. Whoever drafts him is going to have to be patient with him, because it will take him a while to realize his full potential. The jump shot needs work, but it’s not broken, just a bit flat and inconsistent right now. He has potential to be an all-star in this league, but there is definitely some bust potential. If forced to guess how he will turn out, I could see a guy with prime numbers of 18-7-4 that will make a couple all-star teams in his prime years. Those prime years are so far away though.

5. Aaron Gordon – 6’9” 220 lbs. SF Arizona – I really like Aaron Gordon’s game. People keep throwing out the Blake Griffin comps, but I really see a lot of Joakim Noah in him. He plays with that passion and energy. He’s also one of the best defenders I’ve seen coming out of college. Clearly has both a high IQ for O and D. Always in the right spot. Obviously, he’s a freak athlete, which should nullify is shortish wingspan. The biggest knock on Gordon is his ability to score. He’s trying to do to much right now, but in the NBA, coaches will find a way to put him in the right spots to create buckets. His free throw shooting is also tragic, but can be fixed. It might take years (as we’ve seen with Griffin) but it’s doable. It is important to point out he has very little touch and his offensive game will never be above-average. The kid is an extremely hard worker, high-character guy and this will drive him to success. Probably won’t ever be a 20-10 guy, but he will be a great team guy that helps them win games. Don’t let his stats fool you. Aaron Gordon is going to be an integral piece to a team. Not worthy of a top-2 pick, but if he slides out of the top-8 somehow, he will be a steal. I like him best of the 3 PFs (Randle and Vonleh being the others). Prime Numbers: 16-9-3-2 blocks, 1-steal, great plus/minus numbers. Analytics guys will love him and can hopefully quantify his value to people who rely on counting numbers as a measuring stick of success.

6. Julius Randle – 6’9” 250 lbs. PF Kentucky – I’ll just say right now, the foot injury doesn’t concern me.  Moving on. The first thing you notice about Randle’s game is he is a beast. He has the strength to bang with NBA bigs right now. When he gets the ball in the post, generally puts his head down and goes to work. This works for and against him. He is going to have to pick his spots better in the L. His passing was sub-par and rarely found the open man when defenses collapsed on him. I think this is a correctable issue for him though. He also lacked moves down low and was very left-hand dominated. Really needs to work on getting that right hand down and become less predictable. Randle didn’t shoot much in college from the perimeter and this is something he will surely have to get better at to have defenses respect him and to space the floor. He actually shot pretty well in high school and I believe he will show that this is something he can do on the pro level. Obviously, he’s not a jump out of the gym athlete and his measurements are shorter than you would like at the 4, but I think he has solid defensive instincts and will be an adequate defender in a team scheme. Will certainly never make any all-defensive teams though. He’s got a great work ethic and this will carry him far in the NBA.  I think the Zach Randolph comp is a little off. Randolph has so many moves on offense. Randle does not. Randle is also a better athlete than Randolph, but most are. I see Julius Randle as a Demarcus Cousins type without the childish attitude. Not as skilled offensively, but a guy that can average 19 and 10 in the pros with range on his shot that people don’t know about yet. If he can get that J up and running, he will be an offensive force. There was a reason scouts thought he was a top-3 guy coming out of high school. Don’t sleep on him.

7. Marcus Smart – 6’3” 227 lbs. PG Ok. St. – There are a lot of big positives and negatives to Smart’s game and his potential is dependent on fixing some big problem areas. My favorite thing about Marcus is that he’s a warrior. He’s got a football player’s build and he knows how to use it in game situations. His rebounding will translate well and make him one of the best at his position at the next level. It doesn’t hurt that he has a 6’9” wingspan! He’s also a really good defender and there really isn’t a guard in the NBA who is going to overpower him. The bad things about him are that he’s not very shifty so quick guards will give him problems. He also lacks a handle and a reliable outside shot, which are two critical elements of the PG position. His jumper is really inconsistent and lacks good form. He also has some attitude questions and seems like the type that will bitch to refs a bit too much, but I think his passion is a net positive as a guy to fire up his teammates and be a good leader. His closest comp to me is somewhere between Russell Westbrook and Deron Willians. He’s not near the athlete Westbrook is (nobody really is) and not as natural of a passer as D-Will but he is a big time rebounder who uses his strength well and will put everything on the line to get a win. I don’t see Smart ever being a top-5 guy at his position, but if he improves on some of those weaknesses he could get close. Ultimately, I think he will be a top-18 PG and someone who brings intangibles. Prime numbers: 16-6-5-2 steals and a good perimeter defender.

8. Dario Saric – 6’10” 220 lbs. PF Croatia – I had heard a lot about Saric for a couple years now, but the more I saw him in game action the more impressed I was. He has a great feel for the game at age 20. The competition he’s playing against in the Adriatic League is a step above NCAA and he’s been spectacular there. He handles and passes the ball like a guard. Definitely rare for someone his size. He has demonstrated the ability to hit the 3 as well, which is going to make him a matchup problem for a lot of teams. Will be an excellent secondary ball-handler for any team that drafts him. He is going to depend on fit more than other prospects, because of his unique set of skills. No one will ever confuse him for a rim protector. His defense is him trying hard. His wingspan is equivalent to his size and he’s by no means a north-south athlete.  This will have a bigger impact in the pros, but Saric is a smart player who has the ability to work well as a team defender in the proper system. If he comes over this year, then I believe he should definitely be a top-10 pick. 6’10” players with guard skills don’t come along very often.  Also like the arrogance. Boris Diaw just did him a lot of favors, showing a forward who can succeed as a big secondary ball handler. That could be his future. Prime numbers: 14-7-5, below average defense, but above average 3 point shooter. Stretch 4 with floor vision is an asset.

9. Noah Vonleh – 6’9.5” 247 lbs. PF Indiana – He is what you would call a new age 4. I think the most promising thing about his game is his ability to shoot from the perimeter and out to the 3. Also has a deceptively good handle. This will make him a tough matchup for NBA big men. He also has crazy length, which will certainly help on the defensive end. Can play solid post D by just using verticality and standing reach. This will also help make up for some lack of athleticism. I was actually surprised he didn’t show more here, but he is a very average athlete. He moves well, but is a below-average leaper. This leads to him being a poor finisher. His offense down low is very basic and quite unpolished. Moves can be learned, but he needs to see the floor a lot better.  The kid must love apples, because he piles up turnovers. Definitely one of the worst passers I’ve ever seen. Struggles to find the open man and even screws up routine passes. He is going to need a coach that can really bring him up to speed here. Of course, I have to mention his rebounding. He will definitely average 10 a game in the pros with his length and hustle crashing the glass on both ends. Rebounding out of his area comes easy to him because of his length. He’s so young at only 18 that it makes it harder to project him. It’s almost unfair. There are Chris Bosh comps floating around and I can see that. I think a better comp might be a less athletic Serge Ibaka. Although I see the upside, Vonleh is not someone I would take in the top-6 as I am less bullish on him. I just don’t think he will ever have the IQ to be a top player at his position. He can be a good starter, but I don’t see all-NBA teams. I think his potential is being a bit overstated right now. I prefer Gordon and Randle. Prime numbers: 12-12-0 assists-1.5 blocks, 1 3 a game and a lot of turnovers. A floor stretching 4 is a great addition to any team, but don’t confuse him for a potential franchise player. That he is not.

10. Doug McDermott – 6’8” 218 lbs. SF Creighton – We all know McDermott is one of the best shooters in the game. He can come in to the NBA, where spacing is of paramount importance nowadays and be a spot up shooter. He will need to be more than that and I think he can. He has a nice mid-range game and a high IQ. Has been out-athleted his whole life so he has some crafty ways of counteracting this.  Will he be a good enough defender to be a net positive? Maybe. He has little explosiveness and lacks a wingspan. These will always be a significant disadvantage to Dougy. He’s a smart player though and I think he can become a below-average defender, rather than a black hole. It’s going to take a lot of work. I think his future in the league is as a rich man’s Matt Bonner. He will be a good rotation guy, but should not be starting for any team. I think late lotto is when it makes sense to start looking at these sorts of role players. Top-8 is ambitious. Prime numbers: 14-5-3 with 2.5 3s a game and terrible defense.
 
Next post I will be going into some guys that I think are undervalued and overvalued. Leave comments BEFORE the draft and not 2 years from now so we can compare opinions.

16 comments:

  1. All right well I’ve had enough of lurking in the shadows. Everyone knows my draft analysis is always spot on. I’m the one who wanted Durant over Oden, I almost cried when the Celtics drafted Jerome Moiso. I even thought the Billups pick was solid and said he would have a better career than Keith Van Horn, but wished the Celts had gone with T-Mac over Ron Mercer. Well regardless I didn’t write any of those down so this year I’ve decided to give the people what they want. I’m all about Bold predictions. Zoey once again you are not giving the people what they want. I don’t need to know that that Noah Vonleh has crazy length; deceptively good handle and can beat off with both hands. I can read all of that on NBA Draft.net Let me show you how it’s done, I’m sure after a few hours you will have every GM in the league looking at your blog.

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  2. 1. Joel Embiid – 7’1” 245 lbs. C Kansas – Goes # 1 to the Cavs -. Guy isn’t going to be the next Hakeem, but since there are zero centers in the NBA these days will have a good career. Thankfully this guy didn’t come out in the early 90s where he’d get creamed by the likes of Ewing, Shaq, Robinson. Like I tell all my friends, dude has got to hit the weight room. I just hate big men these days they are injury prone and soft as shit. If I’m drafting – I’d prefer Wiggy at 1. I don’t think Embiid will be healthy enough to warrant that number 1 spot.

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  3. 2. Andrew Wiggins - 6’9” 200 lbs. SF Kansas –Prob goes #2 - This cat can play. I’m not going to pull a Lorenzo and say “Well if he gets put in the right system he will be an all star, but if he goes to a team in the west he will have a Rudy Gay type career, but if he goes to a team with a bad coach he will be an avg player).

    By year 4 will be a top 12 player in the league. Write that down.

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  4. 3. Jabari Parker – 6’9” 240 lbs. SF Dule - As much as I love Dule University….Parker is Carmelo! Carmelo is Parker! Parker is a man! But realistically this guy isn’t going to be able to fill it up like Melo, normally I’d love to compare him to Paul Pierce, but after seeing him lose in the first round of the tourney I don’t think he’s got that Paul Pierce will do anything to win mode. Although Paul did lose to zoey’s URI Rams in the sweet 16. Regardless, Jabari is a good pick at # 3. Will put up anywhere between 18-25 a game for his career.

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  5. 4. Dante Exum – 6’6” 196 lbs. PG/SG Australia – Definitely has a case of the Derek Zoolanders in not being able to go left. But if this guy landed in the right spot would be a marketers dream. Just seems so silky smooth… It’s Penny Hardaway Remix Baby. Well until he speaks and he’s got that Australian accent mate.

    I do think this guy would be fun to watch. Reason I’m okay with him not being a Celtic is because he is another softie. Can easily be manhandled. It’s the same thing that happens when Josh and I get destroyed when we try and team up on Colin in late night drunk wrestling (I swear that’s all it is, just oiling up with our shirts off and practicing moves). Regardless I think he will be fun to watch have a good career be a big player in this league.

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    Replies
    1. Didn't Bobby get cut from the JV team for not having a left....or a right?

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  6. 5. Aaron Gordon – 6’9” 220 lbs. SF Arizona – Really hope the Celts don’t draft this guy. I’d be totally okay if they trade down and get him. You can’t get a 6’8 guy with the number 6 pick that can’t score the basketball. Will NEVER make an All Star Team, but could play a good role on any team in the league.

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  7. 6. Julius Randle – 6’9” 250 lbs. PF Kentucky –First thought Sheldon Williams 2.0. But after “scouting” this guy more than anyone else in the draft (3-6 minutes of youtube). I think this guy has Charles Oakley potential. I would actually feel pretty good if I got this guy in the 8-10 range of the draft.

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  8. 7. Marcus Smart – 6’3” 227 lbs. PG Ok. St. – Love Marcus Smart – this guy could play for my team any day – same with my boy D. Stephenson. Guy is going to have a good career, I really hope he goes to a big market team. At the same time when this guy is battling against the Celtics I could easily end up hating him. As zoey said this guy is already a good NBA defender and you can tell he loves D (same could be said for zoey).

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  9. 8. Dario Saric – 6’10” 220 lbs. PF Croatia – Yikes in the top 10?! No way bromingo. This guy will be lucky to play 5 years in the league. Bust City. Zero shot at an All Star Game. Guy better hopes the Spurs find a way to get him, if not he’s totally fucked. Not sure how you like this guy, I think John McGovern and his giant belly have a quicker first step than him.

    Really though he's just another guy - if anyone drafts him in the top 10 they should be fired.

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  10. 9. Noah Vonleh – 6’9.5” 247 lbs. PF Indiana - It takes a big man to admit he isn’t sure about something. Well today I am that big man. I seriously am split on this guy and can’t tell what he will end up doing. I even watched 4 minutes of youtube clips on him and checked out his college stats and I’m still unsure.

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  11. 10. Doug McDermott – 6’8” 218 lbs. SF Creighton- He’s a 22 year old white guy who played for Creigthton…. I’m not even going to waste my time here.

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    Replies
    1. replace Creighton with Indiana State. Just saying...

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  12. Creighton University - That's a private school, Doug definitely lives at home right now with both parents who have a real good marriage.

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