2014 NBA Draft: Player Predictions of Some Likely First Rounders

We are less than 48 hours away right now from my Christmas (ironically, just a day after half-Christmas). The mid round is always a good place to find some good rotation pieces, but there is always a random all-star here and there, and some serious busts. Here are my thoughts on some of the guys projected to go in this range.

Elfrid Payton – 6’4” 185 lbs. PG Louisiana-Lafayette – The first thing that surprised me was how young he was for a guy who just completed his junior year. Elfrid is 3 weeks older than Embiid! Clearly we have a late bloomer on our hands, and it probably helped his game grow quicker that he went to a small school where he could be the best player and get reps. PGs coming out that can pass, but can’t shoot will always be compared to Rondo. This is no exception. He’s taller than Rondo and has the same long, wiry build, but surely won’t be as good. He doesn’t really have to be. There are some nice aspects about Payton’s game. He’s really quick, a pesky defender, and makes really nice passes in good spots for his teammates. That shot though…That’s going to be trouble. You can’t be a starting PG in the NBA without a jump shot to keep defenses honest. His lack of left hand is also troublesome. Guys in the league will just go under screens on him and pack the paint. It’s going to take time for him to potentially get a credible jump shot, so we really won’t know his outcome for a minimum 3 years. Ultimately, that’s what will dictate his success. How far along can he get the J. The form is a little strange, but not completely broken. He shoots it flat right now. There are tweaks to fix this, but it will take a lot of reps. By all accounts, he’s a good kid and a hard worker. The defense is way ahead of the offense right now, but could be a low-end starter in the league. Top 15 maybe if he gets a jump shot. Never top 10.

Gary Harris – 6’4.5” 205 lbs. SG Michigan St. – His ability to shoot the ball will make him stick in the league for a while. There is very little bust potential (unlike Bobby’s sister) with Gary Harris. His athleticism and size will surely limit his ceiling. He will never be a top-5 guy at his position even with the weak 2-guard crop currently in the NBA. There isn’t much creativity in his offensive game right now and he’s going to need to be with his average physical gifts. Two things I really like about Harris is that he is a hard worker and he’s a great defender. Has a knack for almost always picking the right time to gamble. I think his floor is as a 3 and D guy right now and I think his most likely outcome is Arron Afflalo. They are around the same size and both lack crazy quicks and hops, but I think his intangibles will be enough to get him to this level. I think any team outside the top-8 should consider this kid. Will probably get reps at PG in summer league. This could raise his ceiling if he shows enough ball skills to get minutes there. Not sure about that yet.

Zach Lavine – 6’6” 180 lbs. SG UCLA – Wow the kid is like a kangaroo! Or a dunkaroo (those were so good)! On par with Wiggins as an athlete. And he can shoot pretty well. That’s all nice and well, but the kid doesn’t know how to play the game. One of the lowest IQ players in the draft. Doesn’t pass the ball well and takes a lot of bad shots. Much like Bobby, he sounds pretty dumb when he talks too. Also, has a thin frame that doesn’t look like will add a lot of weight. Basically, this dude is soft as shit. He’s not tough, he doesn’t hustle, and he sucks at D. Obviously with athleticism like that, there is upside, but I don’t see him ever being more than a Gerald Green. Even that might not happen. Think this kid shouldn’t be taken in the top-20 in this draft. Upside might be worth it later, but I wouldn’t want him on my team. You get a few nice dunks, but this kid is way overrated.

Nik Stauskas – 6’6.5” 207 lbs. SG Michigan – Typical white guy. Can shoot the ball nicely and will be a great spot up shooter in the league. Terrible defender because he’s not long or quick enough to keep up with good athletes. Solid rotation guy here, but should never be a starter. Seems like a 20 minute a night guy to space the floor. White people.

Tyler Ennis – 6’2.5” 182 lbs. PG Syracuse – Kendall Marshall clone. Great passer and great poise. Has a nice handle and a decent jump shot. He’s not athletic enough to be a starting PG, but I think he can be a really good backup for a team that needs a distributor off the bench.

T.J. Warren – 6’8” 220 lbs. SF NC St. – Just watched his scouting video on Draft Express…man that was rough. A low IQ player with skills that don’t translate to the NBA. Has a gross looking jump shot that looks more like a sling shot. Ball practically touches his feet when he’s in his long ass wind up shooting motion. Warren is also soft as Sunshine’s stomach, which is basically softer than a bouncy house. Not a hustler. Big-time tweener. Anyone who wastes a 1^st round pick on this kid should be relieved of their GM duties immediately. BUST.

Rodney Hood – 6’8.5” 208 lbs. Duke SF – First thing I notice about Hood is that pretty ass shot. His mechanics remind me of KG with the high release, but also gets it off quick. And man that shot is wetter than Josh dipping in a neighbor’s pool uninvited. This will be his calling in the NBA. I also like that he’s an unselfish player and won’t just jack a shot up if it’s not the right play. The problem is he’s not tough and can’t finish at the rim. A very average athlete with a wingspan similar to an average PG. Rodney has a thin frame that will always make him weak at his position. On defense, he’s really fucking casual. Probably wears t shirts to interviews with his casual nature. That’s a big no no. When a screen is set on him, it’s like he gets sucked into it like a vacuum and doesn’t care about getting out. Bad bad bad. Will never be a 3 and D guy in this league. Hood is a member of the bizarro Zoolanders because he can’t go right. Either way, this kid has a pretty shot and will be a good rotation piece for a team picking outside the lottery who needs floor spacers.

Adrien Payne - 6’10” 239 lbs. PF Michigan St. – A very interesting prospect because he is already 23 years old. A lot of guys in this draft won’t be 23 by the time they start their second contract. I applaud Payne for staying in school because he has gotten so much better since he enrolled. Shot over 40% from 3 and really improved across the board in all facets. He likes running a pick and pop, which NBA teams will love to use him in. He’s a really good athlete with a 7’4” wingspan so the physical tools are there. The feel for the game is a little slow and probably will always have bouts of cluelessness, but with enough reps can be a very capable defender in a team scheme. The main question is how much better can he get? Right now, I think he could easily be a rotation guy for a team. Stretch 4s are en vogue right now. Apparently he has a lung condition as well so don’t think he can give you more than 20 solid minutes a night (19 more than Bob). I don’t think he gets too much better, but he’s already solid and worth a pick in the top 20.

James Young – 6’7” 213 lbs. SF Kentucky – Another lefty with a nice looking shot, quick release, and member of bizarro Zoolander squad. No right hand. He also seems to be a very streaky shooter and his defense is god awful in pretty much every area. The reason why I like him slightly more than Hood, who’s a very similar player, is that he has a long wingspan (7 feet) and is only 18 (duh, Young!). He has more upside, but definitely has a lot of bust potential too. If he gets with the right coach, they can fix some of that D stuff, because he has the length to bother people. His first few years will be a net minus on the floor because of this side of the ball until he improves greatly. I’m not sure which way this kid is gonna go. Most likely, ends up as a rotation guy off the bench to space the floor and be a spark plug.

Clint Capela – 6’11” 222lbs. PF Switzerland – Your typical raw athlete type. Wows you with his ability to run and jump, but his game (much like his country’s native cheese) has a lot of holes in it. If everything breaks right for Clint, he could be Serge Ibaka. He’s already a big-time rebounder and shot blocker, but Capela is also young and needs to learn the game. If everything breaks wrong for the kid, Bismack Biyombo 2.0 will have people mad at their GM. I don’t think he has the basketball awareness and IQ to get to Serge’s level, but he could certainly get to be a smaller Dalembert if he keeps working. His upside is high and I believe late lottery is where his range should start.  Definitely worth a flier for a team willing to wait.

P.J. Hairston – 6’5” 229 lbs. SG UNC castoff/D League – First thing I notice about P.J. is his eyebrows are the longest I’ve ever seen. They go to the side of his eye! That’s weird. Anyway, this kid is obviously a head case. Has times of laziness and just dumb plays. He can definitely shoot and can play through contact with his football player’s build, but he’s pretty one-dimensional. Could be a decent scorer off the bench, but has to clean up his attitude. Think there’s a decent chance he slides into the second round. I would pass on this guy like Rondo.

Jusuf Nurkic – 6’11” 280 lbs. C Bosnia – I don’t see what all the hype is about. He’s a big white guy. An unspectacular athlete who doesn’t show much touch around the basket. Why is this kid getting any looks before the second round?? Beats me. BUST.

Tomorrow night I am going to be getting into some guys that I think can be late steals and will post my grades on my top 30 and beyond. Sports!