Wednesday, June 25, 2014

2014 NBA Draft Ratings




For more in-depth analysis on these guys, check out my player capsules article. The way I rank players is in three ways. Ceiling, floor, and final grade. Pretty simple. The tiers are based on the number grade each prospect gets. I will introduce that here. This class is looking MUCH stronger than last year's, which I think was Josh's favorite draft since 2000. Anthony Davis is the best most recent prospect drafted in 2012, grading out in my system as a 96. Nobody here hit Tier 1, but at least we have some guys that have potential to get there and some really good Tier 2 guys. I spent more time than usual looking at the top guys, so I will be honest, this isn't my top 30 ranked players, these are 30 players I have ranked. I will probably be missing some late round jewels and nice rotation pieces in the second round.

Grading system 1-100

A+/A 100-95 = Can't miss franchise player. Best player on championship contender potential. Perennial MVP candidate. (LeBron and Duncan would have been graded 100)

A/A- 94-90 = Potential multiple All-Star and All-NBA 1st and 2nd team potential. Potential franchise player. Might be good enough to be the best player on championship contender with good supporting cast or be and excellent sidekick (D-Wade and Westbrook)

B+/B 89-95 = Potential All-Star 1-3 times n career. All-NBA 3rd team potential. Average to low end second sidekick on championship contender. High-end 3rd best.

B/B- 84-80 = Might be 3rd best player on championship contender on high end. Solid starter on low end.

C+/C 79-75 = Starter on high end. Impactful rotation player on low end (6th or 7th man)

C/C- 74-70 = Potential rotation player on high end. Quality backup on low end.

D+/D 69-65 = Bench filler.

D/D- 64-60 = 12th man. Never seen this dude without warmups on.

F - 59-0 = Bust on high end. Bobby Thompson blowing out his knee after getting crossed over on the 0 end.

1. Andrew Wiggins 6'9" 200 lbs. SF Kansas
Ceiling 97          Floor 79          Grade 93

2. Joel Embiid 7'1" 245 lbs. C Kansas
Ceiling 98          Floor 65          Grade 93

3. Jabari Parker 6'9" 240 lbs. SF Duke
Ceiling 92          Floor 76          Grade 90

4. Dante Exum 6'6" 196 lbs. PG Australia
Ceiling 93          Floor 66          Grade 87

5. Aaron Gordon 6'9" 220 lbs. PF Arizona
Ceiling 90          Floor 76          Grade 86 


6. Julis Randle 6'9" 250 lbs. PF Kentucky
Ceiling 91          Floor 74          Grade 85

7. Marcus Smart 6'3" 227 lbs. PG Oklahoma St.
Ceiling 89          Floor 72          Grade 82

8. Gary Harris 6'4.5" 205 lbs. SG Michigan St.
Ceiling 85          Floor 71          Grade 80

9. Dario Saric 6'10" 220 lbs. PF Croatia
Ceiling 87          Floor 67          Grade 80

10. Noah Vonleh 6'9.5" 247 lbs. PF Indiana
Ceiling 91          Floor 64          Grade 77

11. Elfrid Payton 6'4" 185 lbs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Ceiling 86          Floor 64          Grade 77

12. Clint Capela 6'11" 222 lbs. Switzerland
Ceiling 87          Floor 67          Grade 75

13. Adrien Payne 6'10" 240 lbs. PF Michigan St.
Ceiling 82          Floor 69          Grade 75

14. Tyler Ennis 6'2.5" 182 lbs. PG Syracuse
Ceiling 81          Floor 68          Grade 75

15. Doug McDermott 6'8" 218 lbs. SF Crieghton
Ceiling 80          Floor 68          Grade 75

16. James Young 6'7" 213 lbs. SG/SF Kentucky
Ceiling 84          Floor 60          Grade 74

17. Rodney Hood 6'8.5" 208 lbs. SG/SF Duke
Ceiling 82          Floor 67          Grade 74

18. Nik Stauskas 6'6.5" 207 lbs. SG Michigan
Ceiling 80          Floor 66          Grade 73

19. Shabazz Napier 6'1" 175 lbs. UConn
Ceiling 82          Floor 67          Grade 72

20. Kyle Anderson 6'8.5" 230 lbs. SF UCLA
Ceiling 82          Floor 62          Grade 72

21. Glenn Robinson III 6'7" 211 lbs. SF Michigan
Ceiling 83          Floor 63          Grade 71

22. Jerami Grant 6'8" 214 lbs. SF Syracuse
Ceiling 82          Floor 64          Grade 70

23. Patric Young 6'10" 247 lbs. PF Florida
Ceiling 80          Floor 68          Grade 70

24. Thanasis Antetokounmpo 6'6" 205 lbs. Greece/D League
Ceiling 83          Floor 66          Grade 70

25. P.J. Hairston 6'5" 229 lbs. SG UNC/D League
Ceiling 81          Floor 60          Grade 69

26. Mitch McGary 6'10" 260 lbs. PF Michigan
Ceiling 80          Floor 60          Grade 69

27. Zach Lavine 6'6" 180 lbs. SG UCLA
Ceiling 88          Floor 50          Grade 68

28. Jusuf Nurkic 6'11" 280 lbs. C Bosnia
Ceiling 83          Floor 60          Grade 68

29. Jordan Adams 6'5" 209 lbs. SG UCLA
Ceiling 78          Floor 60          Grade 64

30. T.J. Warren 6'8" 220 lbs. SF NC St.
Ceiling 75          Floor 50          Grade 61

A few bullet points here.

  • 2 guys posting over 95 upside and 7 over 90 is damn good.
  • Wiggins has the highest floor due to his athleticism and skills.
  • Embiid has higher upside slightly, but much lower floor because of injury concerns. This is why I take Wiggins first.
  • Gary Harris will be a really good 2 guard and I think he's underrated right now. He shouldn't be lumped in with the Stauskas, Young, Hood group.
  • Dario Saric will be worth the wait for a team outside the top 10.
  • Vonleh has a really wide range of possibilities. I don't ever see him getting close to his projections though.
  • Clint Capela will be a nice value outside the lottery. People are sleeping on him after a rough game at the Hoop Summit. Great size and athlete.
  • I haven't seen this many good shooters in a draft in a very long time. Most of them can't play D though.
  • I wanted to like Zach Lavine, but I think he's too dumb of a kid to ever come close to his massive potential. J.R. Smith is a best-case scenario.
  • Nurkic is also very overvalued in my opinion. I just don't see it. He's an oaf.


I will be watching the draft live at Barclays tomorrow night. I'm up in the nosebleeds, but I will try to get some pics/vids. Next post will be after the draft. Most likely Tuesday. I'll be giving teams draft grades. It's very similar to what Chad Ford does, except I'm doing it.



2014 NBA Draft: Player Predictions of Some Likely First Rounders



We are less than 48 hours away right now from my Christmas (ironically, just a day after half-Christmas). The mid round is always a good place to find some good rotation pieces, but there is always a random all-star here and there, and some serious busts. Here are my thoughts on some of the guys projected to go in this range.


Elfrid Payton – 6’4” 185 lbs. PG Louisiana-Lafayette – The first thing that surprised me was how young he was for a guy who just completed his junior year. Elfrid is 3 weeks older than Embiid! Clearly we have a late bloomer on our hands, and it probably helped his game grow quicker that he went to a small school where he could be the best player and get reps. PGs coming out that can pass, but can’t shoot will always be compared to Rondo. This is no exception. He’s taller than Rondo and has the same long, wiry build, but surely won’t be as good. He doesn’t really have to be. There are some nice aspects about Payton’s game. He’s really quick, a pesky defender, and makes really nice passes in good spots for his teammates. That shot though…That’s going to be trouble. You can’t be a starting PG in the NBA without a jump shot to keep defenses honest. His lack of left hand is also troublesome. Guys in the league will just go under screens on him and pack the paint. It’s going to take time for him to potentially get a credible jump shot, so we really won’t know his outcome for a minimum 3 years. Ultimately, that’s what will dictate his success. How far along can he get the J. The form is a little strange, but not completely broken. He shoots it flat right now. There are tweaks to fix this, but it will take a lot of reps. By all accounts, he’s a good kid and a hard worker. The defense is way ahead of the offense right now, but could be a low-end starter in the league. Top 15 maybe if he gets a jump shot. Never top 10.

Gary Harris – 6’4.5” 205 lbs. SG Michigan St. – His ability to shoot the ball will make him stick in the league for a while. There is very little bust potential (unlike Bobby’s sister) with Gary Harris. His athleticism and size will surely limit his ceiling. He will never be a top-5 guy at his position even with the weak 2-guard crop currently in the NBA. There isn’t much creativity in his offensive game right now and he’s going to need to be with his average physical gifts. Two things I really like about Harris is that he is a hard worker and he’s a great defender. Has a knack for almost always picking the right time to gamble. I think his floor is as a 3 and D guy right now and I think his most likely outcome is Arron Afflalo. They are around the same size and both lack crazy quicks and hops, but I think his intangibles will be enough to get him to this level. I think any team outside the top-8 should consider this kid. Will probably get reps at PG in summer league. This could raise his ceiling if he shows enough ball skills to get minutes there. Not sure about that yet.

Zach Lavine – 6’6” 180 lbs. SG UCLA – Wow the kid is like a kangaroo! Or a dunkaroo (those were so good)! On par with Wiggins as an athlete. And he can shoot pretty well. That’s all nice and well, but the kid doesn’t know how to play the game. One of the lowest IQ players in the draft. Doesn’t pass the ball well and takes a lot of bad shots. Much like Bobby, he sounds pretty dumb when he talks too. Also, has a thin frame that doesn’t look like will add a lot of weight. Basically, this dude is soft as shit. He’s not tough, he doesn’t hustle, and he sucks at D. Obviously with athleticism like that, there is upside, but I don’t see him ever being more than a Gerald Green. Even that might not happen. Think this kid shouldn’t be taken in the top-20 in this draft. Upside might be worth it later, but I wouldn’t want him on my team. You get a few nice dunks, but this kid is way overrated.

Nik Stauskas – 6’6.5” 207 lbs. SG Michigan – Typical white guy. Can shoot the ball nicely and will be a great spot up shooter in the league. Terrible defender because he’s not long or quick enough to keep up with good athletes. Solid rotation guy here, but should never be a starter. Seems like a 20 minute a night guy to space the floor. White people.

Tyler Ennis – 6’2.5” 182 lbs. PG Syracuse – Kendall Marshall clone. Great passer and great poise. Has a nice handle and a decent jump shot. He’s not athletic enough to be a starting PG, but I think he can be a really good backup for a team that needs a distributor off the bench.

T.J. Warren – 6’8” 220 lbs. SF NC St. – Just watched his scouting video on Draft Express…man that was rough. A low IQ player with skills that don’t translate to the NBA. Has a gross looking jump shot that looks more like a sling shot. Ball practically touches his feet when he’s in his long ass wind up shooting motion. Warren is also soft as Sunshine’s stomach, which is basically softer than a bouncy house. Not a hustler. Big-time tweener. Anyone who wastes a 1st round pick on this kid should be relieved of their GM duties immediately. BUST.

Rodney Hood – 6’8.5” 208 lbs. Duke SF – First thing I notice about Hood is that pretty ass shot. His mechanics remind me of KG with the high release, but also gets it off quick. And man that shot is wetter than Josh dipping in a neighbor’s pool uninvited. This will be his calling in the NBA. I also like that he’s an unselfish player and won’t just jack a shot up if it’s not the right play. The problem is he’s not tough and can’t finish at the rim. A very average athlete with a wingspan similar to an average PG. Rodney has a thin frame that will always make him weak at his position. On defense, he’s really fucking casual. Probably wears t shirts to interviews with his casual nature. That’s a big no no. When a screen is set on him, it’s like he gets sucked into it like a vacuum and doesn’t care about getting out. Bad bad bad. Will never be a 3 and D guy in this league. Hood is a member of the bizarro Zoolanders because he can’t go right. Either way, this kid has a pretty shot and will be a good rotation piece for a team picking outside the lottery who needs floor spacers.

Adrien Payne - 6’10” 239 lbs. PF Michigan St. – A very interesting prospect because he is already 23 years old. A lot of guys in this draft won’t be 23 by the time they start their second contract. I applaud Payne for staying in school because he has gotten so much better since he enrolled. Shot over 40% from 3 and really improved across the board in all facets. He likes running a pick and pop, which NBA teams will love to use him in. He’s a really good athlete with a 7’4” wingspan so the physical tools are there. The feel for the game is a little slow and probably will always have bouts of cluelessness, but with enough reps can be a very capable defender in a team scheme. The main question is how much better can he get? Right now, I think he could easily be a rotation guy for a team. Stretch 4s are en vogue right now. Apparently he has a lung condition as well so don’t think he can give you more than 20 solid minutes a night (19 more than Bob). I don’t think he gets too much better, but he’s already solid and worth a pick in the top 20.

James Young – 6’7” 213 lbs. SF Kentucky – Another lefty with a nice looking shot, quick release, and member of bizarro Zoolander squad. No right hand. He also seems to be a very streaky shooter and his defense is god awful in pretty much every area. The reason why I like him slightly more than Hood, who’s a very similar player, is that he has a long wingspan (7 feet) and is only 18 (duh, Young!). He has more upside, but definitely has a lot of bust potential too. If he gets with the right coach, they can fix some of that D stuff, because he has the length to bother people. His first few years will be a net minus on the floor because of this side of the ball until he improves greatly. I’m not sure which way this kid is gonna go. Most likely, ends up as a rotation guy off the bench to space the floor and be a spark plug.

Clint Capela – 6’11” 222lbs. PF Switzerland – Your typical raw athlete type. Wows you with his ability to run and jump, but his game (much like his country’s native cheese) has a lot of holes in it. If everything breaks right for Clint, he could be Serge Ibaka. He’s already a big-time rebounder and shot blocker, but Capela is also young and needs to learn the game. If everything breaks wrong for the kid, Bismack Biyombo 2.0 will have people mad at their GM. I don’t think he has the basketball awareness and IQ to get to Serge’s level, but he could certainly get to be a smaller Dalembert if he keeps working. His upside is high and I believe late lottery is where his range should start.  Definitely worth a flier for a team willing to wait.

P.J. Hairston – 6’5” 229 lbs. SG UNC castoff/D League – First thing I notice about P.J. is his eyebrows are the longest I’ve ever seen. They go to the side of his eye! That’s weird. Anyway, this kid is obviously a head case. Has times of laziness and just dumb plays. He can definitely shoot and can play through contact with his football player’s build, but he’s pretty one-dimensional. Could be a decent scorer off the bench, but has to clean up his attitude. Think there’s a decent chance he slides into the second round. I would pass on this guy like Rondo.


Jusuf Nurkic – 6’11” 280 lbs. C Bosnia – I don’t see what all the hype is about. He’s a big white guy. An unspectacular athlete who doesn’t show much touch around the basket. Why is this kid getting any looks before the second round?? Beats me. BUST.

Tomorrow night I am going to be getting into some guys that I think can be late steals and will post my grades on my top 30 and beyond. Sports!

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

2014 NBA Draft: Player Predictions of Projected Top 10



      We are finally close to this heralded draft class being picked by their new teams. I'm very bitter the Celtics didn't get a top 3 pick, but the lottery gods hate Boston and that's the way it always will be. Maybe they will pay us back in 2016 with Thon Maker, or perhaps Kevin Love this year? These are currently the projected top-10 guys. Not my top-10, but a top-10. After watching Draft Express scouting reports and NCAA games this season, this is how I project these 10 players.

1. Joel Embiid – 7’1” 245 lbs. C Kansas – One of the highest upside players I’ve seen come out in a while.  He has developed so rapidly in such a short amount of time. Embiid can do everything you need a big man to do on the basketball floor. He has good hands, nice touch, court vision, and already has some nice post moves. That’s just his offense. Defensively, he’s going to be a nightmare for the opposing team. Embiid will be a rim protector at 7’1” with a 7’5.5” wingspan and 9’5.5” standing reach, there won’t be a lot of shots he can’t get to. Package all of the size and skills into someone who may be the best athlete at his position once he comes in the league and the potential is scary. He moves so well on the court and is a fierce competitor who is not afraid of contact. With Oden there were some signs that even just running he could get injured, but I don’t have those same worries with Embiid. We have twice seen big guys go ahead of freak wing players in the draft and it not turn out well (Bowie and Jordan, and the aforementioned Oden and Durant), but let’s not forget, Embiid’s best comp also went ahead of Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon. Now I don’t think Wiggins will ever be Jordan, but Embiid can be Hakeem. I believe, as long as injuries don’t slow down his career that Joel Embiid will be the best player in this draft. Him and Anthony Davis could be battling for Defensive Player of the Year awards and MVPs in 5 years. Prime numbers: 21-12-3.5 (assists)-3 blocks.

2. Andrew Wiggins - 6’9” 200 lbs. SF Kansas – One of the most highly touted prospects since LeBron. Wiggins is a special player. He has the size and all the tools to be one of the best players in the game. The closest comp for him is definitely Paul George. Both are athletic freaks who can play lock down D, but have suspect handles and a developing jump shot. I think Wiggins is a lot farther along than George was at this level and think he can be a better version. His J is there, he just needs to keep working on it and add consistency. The biggest knock against him, and something we will be hearing a lot leading up to the draft is his lack of aggression. It is certainly something he will have to address, but he has time and people were saying the same thing about LeBron up until he won a chip. I think Wiggins is a high ceiling/high floor guy. There are no major weaknesses in his game that can’t be fixed and all of his positives translate so well at the next level. I have high hopes for him and think he will be a top-5 player in the league when he enters his prime. Prime numbers: 25-7-3-2 (steals)-1.5 (blocks) with some all-defensive teams as well.

3. Jabari Parker – 6’9” 240 lbs. SF Dule – The book on Parker is pretty spot on. He lacks the upside of Wiggins because he’s not as athletic and is a terrible defender. These are not things that are going to change on the NBA level. He’s a great offensive player who can light it up in so many different ways. Parker has an arsenal of moves that would make most pros jealous. This will translate well to the NBA. He is also an underrated athlete. I think once jabari gets into shape his athleticism will show. It’s tough being compared athletically to Wiggins who will come in and be a top 5 athlete in the league. The defense is a glaring weakness though and it needs to be addressed. There were times, coach K left him on the bench late in games because he simply got lost on defense.  This needs to be worked on and a lot. Look at the criticism James Harden is getting right now. It’s rightly deserved. I hope Jabari doesn’t end up with a youtube video of him acting as a matador to opposing offenses. The Carmelo comp is spot on to me. He will be a big-time scorer, but will also have a better attitude. Parker can be a ballstopper on offense, but not to the point of Carmelo levels. He will make the pass to an open teammate instead of shooting over double teams, but there will be some bouts of hero ball. I believe he is a level below Wiggins and Embiid, but should absolutely be the 3rd pick. He will make several all-star teams and 2nd and 3rd team NBA teams, but he won’t ever be good enough to be the best player on a championship team. Prime Numbers: 28-8 with 3 point range and not much else, especially on defense. Still pretty damn good.

4. Dante Exum – 6’6” 196 lbs. PG/SG Australia – The mystery man of the draft. At the young age of 18, Exum is such a tough player to evaluate, but everyone pretty much has him in their top-10 and I agree. He’s a good athlete with a good handle (though he is currently right-hand dominant) and a willing passer. He also has a great wingspan at almost 6’10”. Whoever drafts him is going to have to be patient with him, because it will take him a while to realize his full potential. The jump shot needs work, but it’s not broken, just a bit flat and inconsistent right now. He has potential to be an all-star in this league, but there is definitely some bust potential. If forced to guess how he will turn out, I could see a guy with prime numbers of 18-7-4 that will make a couple all-star teams in his prime years. Those prime years are so far away though.

5. Aaron Gordon – 6’9” 220 lbs. SF Arizona – I really like Aaron Gordon’s game. People keep throwing out the Blake Griffin comps, but I really see a lot of Joakim Noah in him. He plays with that passion and energy. He’s also one of the best defenders I’ve seen coming out of college. Clearly has both a high IQ for O and D. Always in the right spot. Obviously, he’s a freak athlete, which should nullify is shortish wingspan. The biggest knock on Gordon is his ability to score. He’s trying to do to much right now, but in the NBA, coaches will find a way to put him in the right spots to create buckets. His free throw shooting is also tragic, but can be fixed. It might take years (as we’ve seen with Griffin) but it’s doable. It is important to point out he has very little touch and his offensive game will never be above-average. The kid is an extremely hard worker, high-character guy and this will drive him to success. Probably won’t ever be a 20-10 guy, but he will be a great team guy that helps them win games. Don’t let his stats fool you. Aaron Gordon is going to be an integral piece to a team. Not worthy of a top-2 pick, but if he slides out of the top-8 somehow, he will be a steal. I like him best of the 3 PFs (Randle and Vonleh being the others). Prime Numbers: 16-9-3-2 blocks, 1-steal, great plus/minus numbers. Analytics guys will love him and can hopefully quantify his value to people who rely on counting numbers as a measuring stick of success.

6. Julius Randle – 6’9” 250 lbs. PF Kentucky – I’ll just say right now, the foot injury doesn’t concern me.  Moving on. The first thing you notice about Randle’s game is he is a beast. He has the strength to bang with NBA bigs right now. When he gets the ball in the post, generally puts his head down and goes to work. This works for and against him. He is going to have to pick his spots better in the L. His passing was sub-par and rarely found the open man when defenses collapsed on him. I think this is a correctable issue for him though. He also lacked moves down low and was very left-hand dominated. Really needs to work on getting that right hand down and become less predictable. Randle didn’t shoot much in college from the perimeter and this is something he will surely have to get better at to have defenses respect him and to space the floor. He actually shot pretty well in high school and I believe he will show that this is something he can do on the pro level. Obviously, he’s not a jump out of the gym athlete and his measurements are shorter than you would like at the 4, but I think he has solid defensive instincts and will be an adequate defender in a team scheme. Will certainly never make any all-defensive teams though. He’s got a great work ethic and this will carry him far in the NBA.  I think the Zach Randolph comp is a little off. Randolph has so many moves on offense. Randle does not. Randle is also a better athlete than Randolph, but most are. I see Julius Randle as a Demarcus Cousins type without the childish attitude. Not as skilled offensively, but a guy that can average 19 and 10 in the pros with range on his shot that people don’t know about yet. If he can get that J up and running, he will be an offensive force. There was a reason scouts thought he was a top-3 guy coming out of high school. Don’t sleep on him.

7. Marcus Smart – 6’3” 227 lbs. PG Ok. St. – There are a lot of big positives and negatives to Smart’s game and his potential is dependent on fixing some big problem areas. My favorite thing about Marcus is that he’s a warrior. He’s got a football player’s build and he knows how to use it in game situations. His rebounding will translate well and make him one of the best at his position at the next level. It doesn’t hurt that he has a 6’9” wingspan! He’s also a really good defender and there really isn’t a guard in the NBA who is going to overpower him. The bad things about him are that he’s not very shifty so quick guards will give him problems. He also lacks a handle and a reliable outside shot, which are two critical elements of the PG position. His jumper is really inconsistent and lacks good form. He also has some attitude questions and seems like the type that will bitch to refs a bit too much, but I think his passion is a net positive as a guy to fire up his teammates and be a good leader. His closest comp to me is somewhere between Russell Westbrook and Deron Willians. He’s not near the athlete Westbrook is (nobody really is) and not as natural of a passer as D-Will but he is a big time rebounder who uses his strength well and will put everything on the line to get a win. I don’t see Smart ever being a top-5 guy at his position, but if he improves on some of those weaknesses he could get close. Ultimately, I think he will be a top-18 PG and someone who brings intangibles. Prime numbers: 16-6-5-2 steals and a good perimeter defender.

8. Dario Saric – 6’10” 220 lbs. PF Croatia – I had heard a lot about Saric for a couple years now, but the more I saw him in game action the more impressed I was. He has a great feel for the game at age 20. The competition he’s playing against in the Adriatic League is a step above NCAA and he’s been spectacular there. He handles and passes the ball like a guard. Definitely rare for someone his size. He has demonstrated the ability to hit the 3 as well, which is going to make him a matchup problem for a lot of teams. Will be an excellent secondary ball-handler for any team that drafts him. He is going to depend on fit more than other prospects, because of his unique set of skills. No one will ever confuse him for a rim protector. His defense is him trying hard. His wingspan is equivalent to his size and he’s by no means a north-south athlete.  This will have a bigger impact in the pros, but Saric is a smart player who has the ability to work well as a team defender in the proper system. If he comes over this year, then I believe he should definitely be a top-10 pick. 6’10” players with guard skills don’t come along very often.  Also like the arrogance. Boris Diaw just did him a lot of favors, showing a forward who can succeed as a big secondary ball handler. That could be his future. Prime numbers: 14-7-5, below average defense, but above average 3 point shooter. Stretch 4 with floor vision is an asset.

9. Noah Vonleh – 6’9.5” 247 lbs. PF Indiana – He is what you would call a new age 4. I think the most promising thing about his game is his ability to shoot from the perimeter and out to the 3. Also has a deceptively good handle. This will make him a tough matchup for NBA big men. He also has crazy length, which will certainly help on the defensive end. Can play solid post D by just using verticality and standing reach. This will also help make up for some lack of athleticism. I was actually surprised he didn’t show more here, but he is a very average athlete. He moves well, but is a below-average leaper. This leads to him being a poor finisher. His offense down low is very basic and quite unpolished. Moves can be learned, but he needs to see the floor a lot better.  The kid must love apples, because he piles up turnovers. Definitely one of the worst passers I’ve ever seen. Struggles to find the open man and even screws up routine passes. He is going to need a coach that can really bring him up to speed here. Of course, I have to mention his rebounding. He will definitely average 10 a game in the pros with his length and hustle crashing the glass on both ends. Rebounding out of his area comes easy to him because of his length. He’s so young at only 18 that it makes it harder to project him. It’s almost unfair. There are Chris Bosh comps floating around and I can see that. I think a better comp might be a less athletic Serge Ibaka. Although I see the upside, Vonleh is not someone I would take in the top-6 as I am less bullish on him. I just don’t think he will ever have the IQ to be a top player at his position. He can be a good starter, but I don’t see all-NBA teams. I think his potential is being a bit overstated right now. I prefer Gordon and Randle. Prime numbers: 12-12-0 assists-1.5 blocks, 1 3 a game and a lot of turnovers. A floor stretching 4 is a great addition to any team, but don’t confuse him for a potential franchise player. That he is not.

10. Doug McDermott – 6’8” 218 lbs. SF Creighton – We all know McDermott is one of the best shooters in the game. He can come in to the NBA, where spacing is of paramount importance nowadays and be a spot up shooter. He will need to be more than that and I think he can. He has a nice mid-range game and a high IQ. Has been out-athleted his whole life so he has some crafty ways of counteracting this.  Will he be a good enough defender to be a net positive? Maybe. He has little explosiveness and lacks a wingspan. These will always be a significant disadvantage to Dougy. He’s a smart player though and I think he can become a below-average defender, rather than a black hole. It’s going to take a lot of work. I think his future in the league is as a rich man’s Matt Bonner. He will be a good rotation guy, but should not be starting for any team. I think late lotto is when it makes sense to start looking at these sorts of role players. Top-8 is ambitious. Prime numbers: 14-5-3 with 2.5 3s a game and terrible defense.
 
Next post I will be going into some guys that I think are undervalued and overvalued. Leave comments BEFORE the draft and not 2 years from now so we can compare opinions.

Friday, June 6, 2014

2014 World Cup 2.0 Teams and Odds (Updated)



Alright 2.0 pool members. I am posting the teams and odds so everyone will have a reference to check their own teams and everyone else's in the pool. I have also ranked them based on the odds of winning, placing much more weight on the favorites. I will update the odds, which keep changing, one final time right before the cup kicks off.

1. Fredi -
BRAZIL 11:4
Bosnia & Herzegovina 150:1
Cameroon 750:1
Costa Rica 2500:1

When you get Brazil, you get automatic 1 ranking. Nobody else on your team really poses a threat, but they don't really need to.

2. Tim -
Argentina 4:1
Belgium 20:1
Uruguay 28:1
Croatia 175:1

Best collection of teams, with all 4 possibly making it out of their group. 3 powerhouses. Buckets keeps winning.

3. AJ -
Germany 6:1
Italy 25:1
Chile 50:1
Australia 2500:1

Germany was the last pick and ended up being your best. I'm sure you would have been happy with just Italy, but the rich could get richer. Chile also a dark horse.

4. Lorenzo -
Spain 6:1
Portugal 22:1
Ecuador 125:1
U.S.A. 250:1

Spain was a big pull for me and I couldn't be happier with them. Winner of the 2010 World Cup and the 2012 Euro championship thingy. Portugal was another good get since Christiano and I are like kindred spirits. Got them in both pools.

5. Bobby -
France 22:1
Colombia 40:1
Greece 200:1
Algeria 1500:1

France and Colombia lead the way and I couldn't feel more different about them as countries. Mostly because the French suck. Just look at Heather. Better hope Colombia uses their country specialty to get their players ready to go...Coffee of course! They could also be somewhat of a home favorite, being so close to Brazil...

6. John -
Netherlands (Holland) 28:1
Russia 80:1
Nigeria 300:1
Honduras 1500:1

The Netherlands are your best shot. They were runner-up last cup so they could be a dark horse. Russia's odds keep going down too so they may be a nice longshot. Maybe a shirtless Putin on a horse can rally them.

7. Mark (Gary) -
England 25:1
Mexico 200:1
Ghana 200:1
Korea 250:1

Pretty much your only shot is England. They're a good team though so anything is possible. Could be worse, you could be this next guy...

Dead Last. Mike Wong -
Switzerland 100:1
Japan 150:1
Ivory Coast 150:1
Iran 2500:1

The guy who got bit by the snake. This is a tragic draw. Don't think I've seen a worse one ever. Time to root for complete chaos.

If you want to trade teams this is totally allowed, but all trades have to go through me so no collusion happens. These trades can happen before the cup AND during. I don't trust you assholes.

Worst of luck everyone!



Friday, May 30, 2014

World Cup 2014 1.0: Everyone's Teams and Odds (Updated)



The order is set. Here is where I will list everyone's teams and odds. I am ranking these from best to worst according to the odds, but weighing the top teams much heavier.

1. Ryan -
Brazil - 11:4
Colombia - 40:1
Ecuador 125:1
USA - 250:1

The guy who owns 2 houses and, like the Sterlings, refuses minorities at all of them, got Brazil. Colombia too, in case the home country wasn't good enough. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Of course.

2. Colin -
Argentina 4:1
Uruguay 28:1
Honduras 1500:1
Iran 2500:1

You get to root for Suarez and Messi. That's nice. One of the best draws in the group for the corporate fat cat. Damn.

3. Mike -
Spain 6:1
Netherlands 28:1
Japan 150:1
Ivory Coast 150:1

Hate this draw. Wish I would have just given you fake countries you've been to like Ghent. Spain really hurts on a personal level. Probably the only person with potential to get all 4 teams out of their groups. Another blow to Team Poor here.

4. Bobby -
Germany 6:1
Bosnia and Herz 150:1
Korea 250:1
Cameroon 750:1

Pretty much just pinning your hopes to ze Germans. I did this last year and suffered heartbreak. I can only hope you have the same result. They were young then though, so understandably they are a favorite.

5. Lorenzo -
Portugal 22:1
England 25:1
Mexico 200:1
Nigeria 300:1

Love having my brother from another mother Christiano on the team. Their odds are worse because of their group, but if they make it out of it, they have to be a favorite. Of course I got Mexico.

6. Josh -
Belgium 20:1
Russia 80:1
Algeria 1500:1
Australia 2500:1

The muscles from Brussels saved your draw. They are a sexy young team that experts like. Also have the best beer and JCVD.  I'm hoping to see some splits from those guys. Brian thinks Russia is a sleeper so there's that...

7. John -
France 22:1
Italy 25:1
Ghana 200:1
Costa Rica 2500:1

Well you get super Mario Bolatelli who is basically the Lance Stephenson of soccer so that's sweet. As in life, I would never trust the French. Need some luck to make a solid run.

8. Brian -
Chile 50:1
Switzerland 100:1
Croatia 175:1
Greece 200:1

Easily the worst draw with Chile your best shot. You should have just tried to go all Eastern Bloc. Or stayed employed. Didn't you see the guys with money get the good teams?

Worst of luck to everyone but me!












Friday, June 28, 2013

NBA Draft 2013: My Grades on the Winners and Losers




Well that was interesting.  I can’t remember a time I was shocked at the first pick. This set the tone for a crazy night that was almost too crazy because it was so hard to keep up with who was going where. The Celtics imploded their team and Bill Simmons imploded on national TV. There were some clear winners (Lucas Noguiera’s hair/hat combo) and probable losers (Solomon Hill? Really?). It’s probably not an awesome sign if your GM is telling the fans not to worry a day after the draft (lookin at you Flip). Without further ado here are my grades for each team.

Atlanta Hawks – A-
Lucas Noguiera 16th pick
Dennis Schröeder 17th pick
Mike Muscala 44th pick
Raul Neto 47th pick

You have to love the Noguiera pick. He gave us the moment of the draft with that appearance from the stands. It’s too bad he didn’t stay in Boston because I absolutely would have rocked a fake fro/hat combination, like OKC did with Harden. I think his upside could be worth it here.

Apparently the Hawks believe in the D.E.N.N.I.S. system as much as I do. I like Schröeder quite a bit and I still don’t understand why he went this low in the draft. This gives Atlanta an insurance policy if Teague leaves and an asset, like Eric Bledsoe, if not. Love love this pick.

Muscala is a solid pick this late in the draft. Could be a decent rotation guy. And then Raul, which is a fun name to say.

With all these draft picks and their first rounders being non-American teenagers, it’s clear Atlanta is going into rebuilding mode. I think they started that movement with grace in the draft.

Boston Celtics – F
Kelly Olynyk 13th pick
Colton Iverson 53rd pick

The KG-Pierce deal didn’t affect this draft so I won’t count that in this assessment.  I will just say that I actually like the deal for Boston and it will make the NBA Draft interesting around here for the next 5 years.

Boston got so Dennis-ed by Dallas with that shitty trade up for Kelly Olynyk. They must really like him to have traded two valuable second round picks and their own pick to move up 3 spots. If your team is in rebuilding mode, maybe trading 3 picks for 1 isn’t a great idea. This terribleness (making it a word) is bolstered by the fact that I think Olynyk will be a bust. This is my personal opinion, though most would agree his upside is a downside. With news that they are potentially shopping Rondo, it would have made so much sense to stay at 16 and take Schröeder. 

Another big goofy white guy with their second round pick of Colton Iverson (might be the blackest name for a white guy possibly ever). They must really be missing Greg Stiemsma. With these two guys, plus Sullinger and Fab Melo, Boston is going for the slowest frontcourt in the game. Haven’t they learned their lesson about trying to tank for franchise guys (Duncan, Oden/Durant)? I’m hoping they get Wiggins aka Maple Jordan, but we all know they won’t. The Cs pulled a real Mantis Toboggan here.

Brooklyn Nets – C-
Mason Plumlee 22nd pick

I personally don’t think Plumlee will turn into anything but bench fodder in the NBA. There were some good guys on the board here and I think they would have been better off taking one of the wing players with some upside (Ledo, Rice Jr., Bullock, Franklin). If they think this guy is going to be an adequate sub for Brook Lopez they have another thing coming.

Charlotte Bobcats – D+
Cody Zeller 4th pick

Another draft shocker here. There were reports that Rich Cho (the GM) wanted Zeller here, but once Noel and McLemore slid I thought it was a sure thing they would take one of those guys. Nope. Cody Zeller is a guy I like, but don’t see him becoming anything more than a solid starter. There were guys who had potential to be All-Stars on the board and I don’t really know why they didn’t take them. They must hate playing on national television or something, because they somehow just get worse every year.

Chicago Bulls – C
Tony Snell 20th pick
Erik Murphy 49th pick

Some pretty average picks here. Snell has a chance to turn into a decent rotation guy for them. My preference would have been for some of the other guys on the board, but clearly Chicago thought he was a better fit. I like seeing South Kingstown, Rhode Island’s own Erik Murphy (or as I like to call him, E. Thought of that one myself) make it with a strong organization. He has a chance to be a Matt Bonner type if he keeps improving his outside shot.

Cleveland Cavaliers – B+
Anthony Bennett 1st pick
Sergey Karasev 19th pick
Carrick Felix 33rd pick

The Cavs started off the draft with a bang! I thought they were taking Noel and everything else was a smoke screen, but like most of us, I was wrong. I’ve said previously that Bennett would be the first to become an All-Star out of this class and he is now in a good situation to do that. I had him graded as the second best player in the draft, right behind Noel so I don’t have any problems with this pick. Maybe Noel was a jackass, and they liked Bennett. Good pick for the Cavs.

I really liked Karasev with that pick and I’m surprised he fell there. He’s got an ultra-smooth shot and will help them stretch the floor along with Bennett.

Carrick Felix is the one black mark on the night. There was plenty of talent left in the second round and they opted for a guy that they probably could have signed as an undrafted player. Bad move.

Dallas Mavericks – A-
Shane Larkin 18th pick
Ricky Ledo 43rd pick

Good picks here by the big D. Larkin is a guy that can do the things JJ Barea used to do for them. He probably won’t ever be good enough to start due to his size, but I think he can stick with this team as a backup PG/spark plug.

Ledo is a boom/bust pick and at this point in the draft, it would have been difficult to find anyone with greater upside. I really like this pick and think it could be the steal of the draft. If Mayo leaves he could be getting 20+ minutes a night right away. Great haul here.

Denver Nuggets – D
Erick Green 46th pick
Joffrey Lauvergne – 55th pick

What a cheapo move to trade your first round pick for a second round pick and cash. I don’t respect selling your picks off. Erick Green is a good pick this late. But then they also drafted a guy named Joffrey?!?! What the fuck! Didn’t they learn anything from Game of Thrones??? This is going to drag their grade down.

Detroit Pistons – C
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 8th pick
Tony Mitchell 37th pick
Peyton Siva 56th pick

With their pick of the litter of PGs they should have taken one. Brandon Knight is not their guy to run the team and they know that. They have two big men who need a solid distributor to set of the offense. Instead they take a guy who has some upside, but I believe to be a bit overrated. Not a great pick in my opinion.

Some interesting second round guys. Tony Mitchell is an athletic freak. Definitely worth the pick here as a guy who has major upside. Siva might make the team as a backup.

Golden State Warriors – Incomplete
Nemanja Nedovic 30th pick

With the final pick of the first round the Warriors take Nedovic. Here’s a guy I know nothing about. I gave it an incomplete because of this and because I don’t know if they plan on stashing him overseas or bringing him in this year. This team is not guaranteed a playoff spot in the tough west conference next year and unless he can make an impact for their team next season then I think the pick wasn’t good. There were guys on the board that they could have used. I think Franklin would have been a great pick as a possible defensive stopper on the wing. We will have to wait and see for this one.

Houston Rockets – B
Isaiah Canaan 34th pick

A guy I like with some decent upside. I see his role being a Nate Robinson type off the bench for them. He’s a big-time scorer who most thought would be a first round pick. I think getting him here is more appropriate and will probably replace Aaron Brooks. Good pick.

Indiana Pacers – F
Solomon Hill 23rd pick

For the second year in a row they make a terrible pick when all they need to do is fortify their bench. They really needed Larry Bird back for this one. I’m guessing he sat out the draft process and let Walsh do his thing, which is a big mistake. Hill probably would have gone undrafted or they could have got him in the second round for something. With the guys on the board that we’re there this just made no sense. Hate seeing this from one of the few teams that can challenge Miami next year.

Los Angeles Clippers – A-
Reggie Bullock 25th pick

Love Reggie Bullock and the Clippers got him at a great spot here. The kid can already shoot at NBA range and will help them space the floor. Look for him to be a rotation guy pretty quickly. I had him rated in the top 15.

Los Angeles Lakers – C+
Ryan Kelly 48th pick

Not a bad pick here. Kelly has some potential as a stretch 4. We’ll see if he sticks. The Lakers can use all the help they can get.

Memphis Grizzlies – A-
Jamaal Franklin 41st pick

I had Franklin rated at 21 so to get him here is a steal. A guy who has major defensive potential and will fit in perfectly for the Grizzlies franchise. Great pick. Don’t know anything about the other guy, but my guess is he won’t ever come to the NBA.

Miami Heat – C
James Ennis 50th pick

It’s hard to nitpick this late in the draft, but I wasn’t crazy about this pick. There were a lot of guys with potential to stay on with an NBA roster left on the board and the Heat took a chance on Ennis. We’ll see if this pick sticks, but they haven’t really been good at mining the second round for picks in a long time (like ever).

Milwaukee Bucks – B+
Giannis Antetokounmpo 15th pick
Nate Wolters 38th pick

Giannis is a guy that no one knows how he will turn out. We could all be laughing at this pick in 5 years or applauding it.  I’m rooting for the kid and it’s obvious he has tons of potential. I like him in this spot and think he’s worth the risk outside of the lottery.

Wolters is a solid pick in the second round and they are hoping he can bring some of the stuff Redick did for them in the half season he played for them. Good picks for the Bucks.

Minnesota Timberwolves – C-
Shabazz Muhammad 14th pick
Gorgui Dieng 21st pick
Lorenzo Brown 52nd pick
Bojan Dubljevic 59th pick

To me, there were just so many better options for them with their first pick. To trade out of 9 when McCollum was there was their first mistake. Then passing on another great shooter in Karasev at 14 was another bad move. I just don’t like Shabazz. He’s a hard worker, yes, but he’s not a team player. A wing player that averages less than an assist a game is kind of a red flag for me. He is just another guy who will be all about himself. Look for him to try to get out of Minnesota in a few years and be a bad locker room guy when things aren’t going well.

Gorgui Dieng is an ok pick. I think with Bullock on the board he would have fit a need for a shooter they desperately need. Instead they take a raw big man who might be the next Festus Ezili.

Their second round picks didn’t wow me either except the guy with the awesome name (not Bojan). Flip Saunders proving that he can not only be incompetent as a coach, but as a GM. Double-threat! Khan isn’t looking so bad right now.

New Orleans Pelicans – C
Pierre Jackson 42nd pick

The Pelicans are here and they came out swinging! Huge trade for them right off the bat. I think it was smart to take Noel even if they knew they wouldn’t keep him. He had too much value to pass up there. I think him an Anthony Davis could have been an intriguing duo once Davis’s offensive game came around, but instead they trade him for an All-Star PG in Jrue Holliday. They also traded a top-5 protected pick in next year’s draft, which I’m not crazy about, but they got Pierre Jackson in the deal.

So if you look at the trade as Nerlens Noel and what will probably be a pick between 8-14 next year (playoffs look more likely in 2015) for Jrue and Pierre Jackson…that trade doesn’t look awesome for them.  It helps them immediately, but the 2014 draft is loaded with potential All-Stars. I get the idea of wanting to win now, but that’s a hefty price tag. If the pick were top-10 or even top-8 protected it would have looked a lot better.

Pierre Jackson is a good get this late in the draft, but I think New Orleans mortgaged the future a bit to be relevant now. They still have a great core, but if they don’t keep that pick next year, the ceiling gets a little lower.

New York Knicks – B
Tim Hardaway Jr. 24th pick

I may be in the minority here, but I like Hardaway Jr. at this spot. He has the size and athleticism that translates well to the league. I don’t think he has superstar potential, but there is definitely some upside left here. This will give New York some firepower off the bench they desperately need. Good pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder – C+
Steven Adams 12th pick
Andre Roberson 26th pick
Alex Abrines 32nd pick
Grant Jerrett 40th pick

Well their draft was interesting. First time we get to see the Thunder in the lottery since the Harden pick. As one of the few teams that can challenge Miami I was hoping they would take someone that wasn’t labeled project. I have Adams rated as the 22nd best prospect, but obviously a lot depends on how quickly he can develop and if his feel for the game increases dramatically. He has potential and the Thunder need some competent big men, so it does make sense for them.

Roberson is an interesting pick. I don’t know that I would have used s first round pick on him, but he has potential to be a Corey Brewer type. Ricky Ledo or Glen Rice Jr. have plenty more potential and would give them another shooter.

Abrines gets high acclaim from those who know the European guys and I think they needed to take at least one guy they could stash overseas.

Jerrett was also a good pick. He has more upside than almost everyone left at this point.

It’s hard to give them a grade right now. It’s also hard to doubt Presti. And we might not know for a while because Scotty Brooks doesn’t play rookies too much. Lot of potential though.

Orlando Magic – B+
Victor Oladipo 2nd pick
Romero Osby 51st pick

Although I think Noel would have been a better fit for the team, it’s hard to argue with picking Victor Oladipo. Universally liked, Oladipo is a high character, high motor guy that should help this team be competitive soon. Now they need to trade Afflalo to make room for him.

I thought Myck Kabongo would have made a lot of sense with their second round pick, but they take Osby, a prospect with very little upside.

Philadelphia 76ers – A+
Nerlens Noel 6th pick
Michael Carter-Williams 11th pick
Arsalan Kazemi 54th pick

Philly won this draft in a huge way. They gave up their young All-Star PG and in exchange receive Noel and a top-5 protected pick next year, which will most likely land in the lottery. They are doing the right thing bottoming out, because they were not going anywhere (thanks Andrew Bynum). Noel is a great piece to start with and I believe he will be the best player out of this class when all is said and done.

MCW was a good grab at 11 and gives them a Holliday replacement they can develop. He lacks the same ceiling, but he has a chance to be a good PG in the league.

Kazemi was also a sneaky good second round pick. He has a good chance to stick with the team.

Phoenix Suns – B-
Alen Len 5th pick
Archie Goodwin 29th pick
Alex Oriakhi 57th pick

Len couldn’t have asked for a better situation. Guys his size are prone to injuries and the Suns staff is the perfect group to help. From a basketball standpoint, this gives Phoenix their first big part of their rebuilding process. Len definitely has upside and can make an impact right away just because he’s 7’1”. Not a bad pick.

Goodwin is a guy I wouldn’t have given a guaranteed contract to. I know he’s only 18, but I just didn’t see enough at Kentucky to think he deserved a first round contract. A second rounder would have been more justified.

Oriakhi is a big body that can maybe be backup if he keeps working.

Portland Trail Blazers – B+
CJ McCollum 10th pick
Allen Crabbe 31st pick
Jeff Withey 39th pick
Marko Todorovic 45th pick

I like this haul for the Blazers. McCollum is an excellent scorer and a good kid that can help them right away. The only thing I worry about is his ability to play with Lillard at the same time. D-Lill is a terrible defender at this stage of his career and McCollum won’t be helping there either. Word is they may use him as a 6th man, which makes sense for now.

Crabbe is worth a flier this late. He has pro size and length and can shoot the ball.

Withey is a shot blocker. This should translate to the NBA. I like this pick.

They’ve just traded Todorovic to Houston in part of the Thomas Robinson trade.

Sacramento Kings – A-
Ben McLemore 7th pick
Ray McCallum 36th pick

With last names like these you would think you were looking at Boston’s picks. The regime is changing in Sacramento and no one should be happier about that then McLemore. He needs a team to nurture his talent and I hope this new team is capable of that. At 7, he is a worthy pick with his upside. They were lucky he slid to them (thanks MJ) and this is a great pick for the organization.

McCallum had a nice college career, but they have so many guards right now I would have thought that a big man would be on the menu. We’ll see who’s staying or going on this team.

San Antonio Spurs – C+
Livio Jean-Charles 28th pick
Deshaun Thomas 58th pick

Jean-Charles made a name for himself in the Nike Hoop Summit game where he played very well. The Spurs love their Frenchies so this pick isn’t a big surprise. We probably won’t see him for a few years.

I like taking a chance on Thomas this late. He was a productive player in college and has a chance to stick with this team.

Toronto Raptors – N/A
No picks

Utah Jazz – B+
Trey Burke 9th pick
Rudy Gobert 27th pick

The Jazz managed to move up and grab Trey Burke as the first PG off the board. I really like this pick for Utah and think Burke will be a good fit for them. Utah has a nice young core with Favors and Kanter there already so things could be looking up for them.

Gobert is worth a flier just for having one of the largest wingspans ever recorded. He’s a few years away though.

Washington Wizards – C+
Otto Porter 3rd pick
Glen Rice Jr. 35th pick

I had Porter rated 8th so other people are going to like this pick more than me. I understand why they did it though. On paper he’s a great fit for the hole they have at SF and brings intangibles of a winning player. I thought Anthony Bennett would have been the best fit for them, but when he got picked then I think Noel should have been their main focus. Him and Wall could have worked very well together, but they take Porter who has much less potential, but a higher character. I’m not completely sold his skills translate to the NBA. I think he can be a good, not great player. They had a chance to get an All-Star with this pick, but they didn’t want to take the chance.

Glen Rice Jr. is a guy I think should have went in the first round. If they can get him to play defense then his ceiling becomes that much higher. The Wizards are clearly trying to build off their promising end to the season and seeing playoffs as a real possibility. They drafted for now and I think it will pay off for them. I just think they lowered the franchise’s ceiling by not taking Noel.