Ahhh...here we are again. With my NBA draft predictions setting the world on fire, and with the 2013 NBA Draft coming up in less than a month I decided to revisit my old posts to see how I've done. Recently a few of you have been visiting this site and calling me out of retirement. So, today I am going to start my review of my picks of the 2009 NBA Draft and also end the post with what a 2009 redraft should have looked like. Keep in mind that we are probably still a year or two away from really being able to nail down all these guys potential and roles in the league. We just saw James Harden and Steph Curry launch themselves into superstars this year. We also saw Hasheem Thabeet almost live up to his potential as 2nd overall pick, except the exact opposite. So let's see how I did by looking at some of the notables.
Blake Griffin 1st pick, My Rank (1) - "This
one is a no-brainer. A can't miss prospect that will put up 20-10 in his prime,
which isn't too far away. He's got the athleticism, skills (though he will need
to work on his jump shot and post moves), and drive to be the best."
I'm not going to pat myself on the back too much
for a widely believed truth at the time. I'm still shocked he never came up
with a great nickname. I was always partial to Dunkbot 3000, but the Blake Show
was in vogue before CP3 came. Now it seems that Blake and Chirs Paul are
rivals...for who has the best commercials! The Kia young Blake commercials vs
Cliff Paul is a tough call!
Ricky the Spanish Sensation Rubio 5th pick, My Rank
(2) - "This one to me is pretty easy as well. This kid will be a franchise
point guard. He needs to get bigger and work on his shot, but this kid is a
phenom who is more NBA ready than people think. The fact that he might not be a
top 3 pick in this shitty draft is beyond me. It reminds me of when Atlanta
somehow thought Chris Paul wasn't going to be great and he slipped to 4th.
Someone is making a mistake."
This wasn't the first time I wrote about Pretty
Ricky. My admiration of him still continues. Took him two years to come
over, but when he did, I believe he proved it was worth the wait. We haven't
gotten a full year from him yet, because of the ACL injury, but I think it's
pretty telling that Minnesota saved their 5 year rookie extension for him and
told Kevin Love that 4 years was the max they would give him. Rubio still does
need to work on his shot considerably, but he was a better defender than we
realized and has shown the ability to be a franchise PG. Quite happy with this
one.
Stephen Curry 7th pick, My Rank (3) - "Ok I
have to admit I really struggled with who to put here. I think there's a huge
gap between Rubio and the next guys. Curry definitely reminds me a little of a
smaller Reggie Miller with adequate point guard skills. Without teams
gameplanning around him he will be able to get his shot off more easily. If he
lands in the right situation and the team allows him to grow into the PG role
then he can end up the 3rd best player in the draft."
Pretty much...doing good so far, let's keep it
rolling!
Jordan Hill 8th pick, My Rank (4) - "A big man
in a draft devoid of them. I think Hill can develop into a pretty good PF in
the league. He's got a motor and the work ethic to succeed. He still has a lot
of potential as he started the game late. Besides 6'10" guys that can
score the basketball don't grow on trees."
Oh...well I got a couple things right here.
He is a big man (6'10"!!) and 6'10" guys that can score the
basketball don't grow on trees...as evidenced by Jordan Hill. In my defense, he
has been in some bad team environments that haven't really afforded him the
proper situation to grow. I still think he can be an energetic, hustle big guy
off the bench, but the potential I saw in him will probably remain just that.
So, whatever, my first miss. And I could argue
that it wasn't that bad. I mean the guy was out for all of this year with an
injury on a Lakers team that would have used him. So let's see who's next.
Byron Mullens 24th pick, My Rank (5) - "This
one might surprise people, but I see a very good future for him if a team
drafts him as a project and gives him a few years to develop. He can shoot the
ball out to 20 feet at 7'1"! He can move extremely well for his size and
has tons of potential. If he stayed in school he more than likely would have
been a top 5 pick in next years draft. This is one pick I make that I will
either never hear the end of or was right on with."
Eesh. Ultimately it was basketball IQ and
environment that severely cut into Mullens' potential. Never really got a
chance in OKC and now in Charlotte has proven to have some value as a stretch
4. His efficiency is terrible, but he just turned 24 and came off a year where
he averaged 10 and 6. I think he can still be a good rotation guy in the right
situation, but nowhere near the fifth best player in the draft.
That was my top 5. Let's check out a few other
notables.
James Harden 3rd pick, My Rank (8) - "I'm not
too crazy about Harden. I saw some of his games in college when he played well,
but I can't seem to shake his performance in the NCAA tournament. It was awful.
He looked sluggish on a court with collegiates. Not a good sign. He's a SG who
won't blow by you and I think he is going to have serious trouble getting his
shot off in the NBA, but he is a smart kid. He needs to start watching film of
Paul Pierce and emulating it because that will be his best chance of
success."
Well this prediction wouldn't look too great a
year ago and looks even worse now. And I will be honest, I didn't see the
breakout this year coming either. It just goes to show that you can't judge a
prospect off of one game. He went to the perfect situation in OKC and when it
was time to take his game to the next level, went to the next perfect situation
in Houston where they knew exactly how to get everything out of him. I love
watching him and I'm glad I was wrong, because he is now the franchise player
for one of my favorite teams to watch right now.
Demar DeRozan 9th pick, My Rank (10) - "A
gifted athlete, Derozan's game is far from complete. The college 1 year rule
really helped a guy just like this. Someone who did very little in the
beginning of the year, but turned it on at the end. It seemed like it started
to click. The kid is a natural 2 guard with a decent J and the ability to blow
by opponents. Demar has a high ceiling. I think he will either become a solid
starting 2 guard or a 7th or 8th man in a spark plug role. It's up to him to
see how good he wants to be."
Gimme dat. Toronto might have expected more, but
it was obvious to most of us that this would be his outcome.
Tyreke Evans 4th pick, My Rank (14) - "A blue
chipper coming out of high school he certainly looked the part at Memphis this
year. So why do I have him about 10 spots lower than most scouts? Well there
are two major red flags here that I will address. This kid's natural position
is not at PG. I don't care if he played there for half a season at Memphis,
Evans is just not a PG on the next level. So let's get to the two major red flags.
First, he is a shooting guard that can't shoot. His shot just doesn't look
right and its inconsistent. Second red flag, he's not a great athlete. Sure he
can drive the ball, but what's he gonna do when up against tall NBA athletes. I
don't like his chances of finishing the play. He is definitely strong, which is
a major reason why he succeeded on the collegiate level, but that alone won't
be enough for him in the NBA. So I have him on here with the thinking that he
could turn out decent, but more or less I am hedging my bets."
I HATED Evans coming out of school. Needless to say
I felt like an idiot after he was the first rookie since LeBron to average
20-5-5. But, it's all been downhill for him since, realizing all of the bad
things I said about him. He has proven himself to be a terrible PG, but an
amazing ball-stopper. It's a good thing he didn't major in science at Memphis,
because he definitely would have failed Chemistry! (...don't worry I can hear
the crickets from here) Terrible team player who has aided in one of the worst
team situations in the NBA. He still has a chance to forge a new beginning on a
good team, as he has the talent to be a solid rotation player, but the Kings
really blew this pick when you look back at the guys they could have taken.
Also, should give some fault to the Kings and their staff for not developing
him whatsoever. He's actually regressed every year.
Jrue Holliday 17th pick, My Rank (16) -
"Scouts love this kid man, they really do. Maybe it's because they believe
he can be a natural PG and lead his team. I am clearly not that high on him. He
didn't show what he could do in college. I would have liked to see him stay
another year and run the show, but it was not to be. If he plays PG I think the
best thing about him will be his defense. He's long and can be a stopper.
Nothing really wows me about his game though. I mean you can't draft a kid in
the lottery based on his defense. Maybe the scouts know something I don't but I
believe whoever drafts him will end up disappointed."
Well the scouts were right. It's not always easy
to see talent in that awful Ben Howland UCLA system and I missed it. I
basically thought he would be what Avery Bradley is now, but he has shown a
higher ceiling than I thought (along with most teams that passed on him I'd
like to add).
Ty Lawson 18th pick, My Rank (18) - "The John
Hollinger creation, Ty Lawson was the reason why the Tar Heels won the
championship. Great passer that seldom turns the ball over and can run the
floor prettttty quickly. Half court his game can suffer a bit. Put him on a
team that likes to run and has some good athletes and shooters and he can
succeed on the next level."
Well he did get in the perfect situation and he's
grown into a very good PG. So I was kind of right actually.
Brandon Jennings 10th pick, My Rank (BUST) -
"Curiously missing from my top 20 is punk ass Brandon Jennings. This kid
is so all about himself I don't know why any team in the lottery would draft
him. He's the same size as Ty Lawson and much skinnier. He is an explosive
athlete and reminds me a bit of Iverson with less of a J and less creativity
and less heart and less leadership and less...well you get the idea. This kid
might end up being a solid player individually, but I can guarantee you right
now there is no way this kid will play any role in any of his teams making it
to the NBA finals. If you want Wesley Snipes from White Man Can't Jump then be
my guest."
I actually laugh reading this. I didn't hate him
as much as I thought I would once he started playing. In the right situation I
think he can do reasonably well, but the Bucks situation was not it. Lawson and
Holliday would have been better picks here. I wasn't far off though.
Austin Daye 15th pick, My Rank (BUST) - "I
have watched this kid in a few games and failed to see a pro ball player. I did
see skills that could translate such as the height and jump shot, but I didn't
see a kid who was committed to getting better. This kid has a chance to be a
Trevor Ariza type player but he doesn't have the heart. Here's a name you will
forget in 4-5 years."
So far so good here. Hasn't really done anything
and has been given opportunities.
Tyler Hansbrough 13th pick, My Rank (BUST) -
"This kid's skills will be lost in translation. Every time I saw this kid
matched up with a real NBA prospect he couldn't do anything. He couldn't score,
create a good shot, rebound, move even. Just because you are a senior in the
draft doesn't make you a safe pick or a guy that can contribute right away.
Draft research has shown that it means it is more likely that they will bust.
Yes he will work as hard as he can to be in the NBA, but he will never be
anything more than a back up and energy guy."
There you have it. Some hits, some misses, and
some still waiting to see.
Let's take a look at how the lottery picks (top 14) should have gone as it stands so far. Keep in mind that players develop differently depending on the team that drafts them. Some have a great track record (Spurs) and some have a terrible track record (Kings)
Let's take a look at how the lottery picks (top 14) should have gone as it stands so far. Keep in mind that players develop differently depending on the team that drafts them. Some have a great track record (Spurs) and some have a terrible track record (Kings)
1. L.A. Clippers - Blake Griffin (1st pick) - No
surprise here. Just from a marketing standpoint has generated so much revenue
for the Clips that there's no other choice for this pick.
2. Memphis Grizzlies - James Harden (3rd pick) - The wing scorer they
are currently missing could be on their team right now. Imagine their ceiling
with Harden there. He would be a perfect fit to give Conley some time off from
being the only ball handler capable of running the offense. The Grizz have not
drafted well in the last few years, with the Thabeet pick here, Xavier Henry
was their lottery pick the following year (right before Paul George) and some
other crap in 2011/2012.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder - Steph Curry (7th pick) - I'm sure Oklahoma is happy they got Harden, but Curry could have also had a huge impact for them. Look at what he's doing now. He may not have had the freedom to do this in Oklahoma with Westbrook and Durant there, but could have really stretched the floor for them that would have bent defenses into submission.
4. Sacramento Kings - Ricky Rubio (5th pick) - No doubt about this one. The Kings are still looking for a franchise PG even though they wisely passed on one here. It was obvious at the time which is what makes this so much worse. Rubio could have alleviated a lot of the locker room and chemistry problems they still have today. Oh, what could have been.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves - Jrue Holliday (17th pick) - Fresh off his first all-star team, Holliday would have been a fine consolation prize if Rubio didn't get to them. Picked him over Lawson because of his defensive abilities. Has really developed well. Philly got a steal here.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Danny Green (46th pick) - While he's certainly not the 6th best player in this draft, he's a solid talent that could have been a good fit for the Wolves here as they lack shooting. It certainly wouldn't make sense to draft two PGs even if they did supply the best value of the draft with so many good ones. There was also very few good big men to come out of this draft. Green is a great 3 point shooter and defender. Steal of the draft.
7. Golden State Warriors - Ty Lawson (18th pick) - Golden State wouldn't change a thing in this draft. Steph Curry has transformed them into not only an extremely fun team to watch, but a player in the West. With that said, Lawson is a dynamic point guard that has proven he can run a fast-paced offense very well. Great pick at 18.
8. New York Knicks - Jeff Teague (19th pick) - Wanted Curry bad, and for good reason, but ended up with Jordan Hill. Teague has been developing steadily and still has room to grow. Really came on at the end of this season and ended with respectable averages (14 ppt, 7 apt, 1.5 spg). Really like this kid.
9. Toronto Raptors - Wes Matthews (undrafted) - It's rare that players this good go undrafted, but that's what happened to young Wes in 2009. Should have absolutely been a first rounder. Is a deadly 3 point shooter in a league that values spacing. Portland did well to find him and give him the opportunity to shine.
10. Milwaukee Bucks- Brandon Jennings (10th pick) - Milwaukee passed on three really good PGs to take Jennings. I think that was a mistake. His character concerns have slowly bubbled to the surface over the years. He's got talent, but is very slight and not a good defender. He has also proven to be an inefficient shooter. He's no franchise PG but he's adequate.
11. New Jersey Nets - Taj Gibson (26th pick) - Has turned into a great defensive player under coach Thibs. The offense never really came around, but you can never have a shortage of athletic bigs that play great D. Chicago did a good job with this pick and developing him into what he is now.
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Tyreke Evans (4th pick) - He's a talented kid, but he went into a terrible situation for a team asking him to be something he's not. Draft him as a 2 guard and know that he's not looking to pass that much and it can work. I think Evans could be a really good 6th man the way the Knicks use J.R. Smith. He's not the shooter Smith is, but he's a great slasher and finisher.
13. Indiana Pacers - Demar DeRozan (9th pick) - Hasn't really gotten much better since year 2 in the league, but he did average 18 ppg this past season. A good scorer, but a bit one-dimensional.
14. Phoenix Suns - Marcus Thornton (43rd pick) - Leaves a lot to be desired on defense, but has proven to be a scoring machine. Until Sacramento got him in their mitts and started his regression. In his first season with the Kings, 2010-11, he averaged 21 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.4 apg, and 1.7 spg. The talent is clearly there. In another situation he would have been better off, but he surely should have been drafted well before the 43rd pick. Another steal in the second round, by the Hornets soon-to-be Pelicans.
That's how the lottery should have gone in my opinion. What's striking looking back is the number of good point guards that came out of it and the dearth of good big men. Blake, Harden, and Jrue, have all made the All-Star team already with a few more to come. A pretty strong draft overall. So let's not invite back Hasheem Thabeet. Ever.
