NBA Draft: Top 20 and Busts

With the 2009 NBA Draft coming up I have decided to make a bold move and rank the top 20 players in the draft as I see them turning out 3-5 years from now. Obviously there is a great margin for error here as there will be some guys who just don't have the desire to reach their full potential and then there will be some guys who overachieve and work so hard that the eye test would have never foreseen their success. It happens every year. Another big variable is what team a player gets drafted by and what a coaching staff can do to really exact a player's maximum abilities. So as I publish this list I know there will be instances when it will come back to bite me, however I will do my best to nail it. Let's begin...

1. Blake Griffin - This one is a no-brainer. A can't miss prospect that will put up 20-10 in his prime, which isn't too for away. He's got the athleticism, skills (though he will need to work on his jump shot and post moves), and the drive to be the best.

2. Ricky the Spanish Sensation Rubio - This one to me is pretty easy as well. This kid will be a franchise point guard. He needs to get bigger and work on his shot, but this kid is a phenom who is more NBA ready than people think. The fact that he might not be a top 3 pick in this shitty draft is beyond me. It reminds me of when Atlanta somehow thought Chris Paul wasn't going to be great and he slipped to 4th. Someone is making a mistake.

3. Stephen Curry - Ok I have to admit I really struggled with who to put here. I think there's a huge gap between Rubio and the next guys. Curry definitely reminds me a little of a smaller Reggie Miller with adequate point guard skills. Without teams gameplanning around him he will be able to get his shot off more easily. If he lands in the right situation and the team allows him to grow into the PG role then he can end up the 3rd best player in the draft.

4. Jordan Hill - A big man in a draft devoid of them. I think Hill can develop into a pretty good PF in the league. He's got a motor and the work ethic to succeed. He still has a lot of potential as he started the game late. Besides 6'10" guys that can score the basketball don't grow on trees.

5. BJ Mullens - This one might surprise people, but I see a very good future for him if a team drafts him as a project and gives him a few years to develop. He can shoot the ball out to 20 feet at 7'1"! He can move extremely well for his size and has tons of potential. If he stayed in school he more than likely would have been a top 5 pick in next years draft. This is one pick I make that I will either never hear the end of or was right on with.

6. Hasheem Thabeet - Thabeet is going to be a good defensive player, there's no doubt about that. At 7'3" with that wingspan he will block a lot of shots. I don't think he will ever develop an offensive game which is why he falls here. Reminds me of Samuel Dalembert and I think his career will resemble it as well.

7. Johnny Flynn - A guy I liked a lot in college, but didn't think would go this high. I guess you could say that about a lot of the guys in the lottery. Flynn has a lot of heart though. He can get to the basket and finish above the rim. I think he can be a lower end starting PG, but he is a little small...

8. James Harden - I'm not too crazy about Harden. I saw some of his games in college when he played well, but I can't seem to shake his performance in the NCAA tournament. It was awful. He looked sluggish on a court with collegiates. Not a good sign. He's a SG who won't blow by you and I think he is going to have serious trouble getting his shot off in the NBA, but he is a smart kid. He needs to start watching film of Paul Pierce and emulating it because that will be his best chance of success.

9. Terrence Williams - Here is a guy that really has the tools to succeed at the next level. Great athlete with a versatile game. His shooting, while not very good, has improved every year in school which leads me to believe that he can get it to an adequate level in the NBA. Also can defend 2 or 3 positions and defend them well. He has a skill set that shows me he can be a top 10 guy in this draft.

10. Demar Derozan - A gifted athlete, Derozan's game is far from complete. The college 1 year rule really helped a guy just like this. Someone who did very little in the beginning of the year, but turned it on at the end. It seemed like it started to click. The kid is a natural 2 guard with a decent J and the ability to blow by opponents. Demar has a high ceiling. I think he will either become a solid starting 2 guard or a 7th or 8th man in a spark plug role. It's up to him to see how good he wants to be.

11. Eric Maynor - A kid I have featured in my undervalued piece. I am putting him above a lot of other so called point guards that are ranked higher by most. I really do like this kid though. This kid is a natural point guard and at 6'3" he has the size to play it in the NBA although he needs to bulk up. A very high basketball IQ, I think he can come into a good situation and hit the ground running. I see him turning into a starting PG in the league with the pure ability to make his teammates better with his vision.

12. Earl Clark - I had a hard time deciding where to put him. On talent alone he would be in the top 5 in this draft. On work ethic and intensity he might not be in the top 20 at all. It's hard to say though because his numbers were good at Louisville and I am wondering if he just got a bad rap in college because he doesn't show that tenacity outwardly. Some people say he's so talented that his numbers should be even better than what they were (14 ppg 9 reb in case you were wondering). Maybe they should have, but if this kid does have the drive to get better and be his best self then me putting him all the way down at 12 will look a bit foolish. But with these question marks I have decided to hedge my bets.

13. Gerald Henderson - 3 years at Duke and he finally came into his own. Was a raw athlete when he came out of high school, but now his game is much more polished. Has a great ability to attack the basket and create highlights. A guy who doesn't have any glaring weakness, though his passing can be suspect at times. Can be an immediate contributor off the bench and looks like he will be a little better version of Dahntay Jones.

14. Tyreke Evans - A blue chipper coming out of high school he certainly looked the part at Memphis this year. So why do I have him about 10 spots lower than most scouts? Well there are two major red flags here that I will address. This kid's natural position is not at PG. I don't care if he played there for half a season at Memphis, Evans is just not a PG on the next level. So let's get to the two major red flags. First, he is a shooting guard that can't shoot. His shot just doesn't look right and its inconsistent. Second red flag, he's not a great athlete. Sure he can drive the ball, but what's he gonna do when up against tall NBA athletes. I don't like his chances of finishing the play. He is definitely strong, which is a major reason why he succeeded on the collegiate level, but that alone won't be enough for him in the NBA. So I have him on here with the thinking that he could turn out decent, but more or less I am hedging my bets.

15. DeJuan Blair - This dude is a man. He turned a lot of heads this year with his numbers. Obviously there are some major question marks. One being his size. Yes he measured small for a guy who plays PF (6'6.5") but his wingspan was 7'2" which helps nullify his height concerns. Another big question mark is how long is this kid's career going to be? He has already had two ACL surgeries (one on each knee) and has been said to have no ACL left. Now he wasn't known as being injury prone in college, but you only play 35 games. The NBA could wear this kid's legs to the ground by the time his first contract is up. On the flip side he is in a draft devoid of big men so he will surely be a top 20 pick. He is someone that can come in and rebound well for a team who needs it. Think Paul Millsap, but with a scary injury history.

16. Jrue Holliday - Scouts love this kid man, they really do. Maybe it's because they believe he can be a natural PG and lead his team. I am clearly not that high on him. He didn't show what he could do in college. I would have liked to see him stay another year and run the show, but it was not to be. If he plays PG I think the best thing about him will be his defense. He's long and can be a stopper. Nothing really wows me about his game though. I mean you can't draft a kid in the lottery based on his defense. Maybe the scouts know something I don't but I believe whoever drafts him will end up disappointed.

17. Nick Calathes - Now here is a PG that I like. Calathes averaged 17, 5, and 6, in his sophomore year at Florida. He's 6'5" and a true PG. He has the skills to succeed in the NBA. Reminds me of a much less athletic Rajon Rondo, but with a better J. This is the kind of player you let back up a really good PG for a year or two and then give him the keys to the car because this kid can really play. If put in the right situation, I have no doubt he will show it.

18. Ty Lawson - The John Hollinger creation, Ty Lawson was the reason why the Tar Heels won the championship. Great passer that seldom turns the ball over and can run the floor prettttty quickly. Half court his game can suffer a bit. Put him on a team that likes to run and has some good athletes and shooters and he can succeed on the next level.

19. Wayne Ellington - Another Tar Heel, but one I'm not hearing enough about. Ellington gets lost in the Lawson and Hansbrough talk quite a bit. Initial concerns from scouts were that he was too small and was one-dimensional. Yes the kid can shoot the lights out, but it looks like he started to flesh out his game more this season. He definitely turned scouts off last season when he worked out in the pre-draft workouts, but he made a good decision to come back and work on improving his game. Not only that, but he measured 6'5" officially which should alleviate the size concerns. The kid is a great athlete and shooter and I think he will find his way into a rotation if he keeps working on improving every facet of his game.

20. Jeff Teague - Teague burst onto the scene this season with a bang at Wake Forest. He even lead them to the number 1 ranking this year. It all came crumbling down at that point after too many guys were trying to impress scouts and weren't ready for the spotlight. They got selfish and Teague was no exception. That said he certainly has skills that translate to the NBA. The story its self does worry me though as it already points to character concerns. I don't think this kid will be a starting PG in the league, but will end up a spark plug off the bench in a Louis Williams kind of role. He's still young so he has time to learn, but I wouldn't give this kid the keys to my team.

BUSTS

Brandon Jennings - Curiously missing from my top 20 is punk ass Brandon Jennings. This kid is so all about himself I don't know why any team in the lottery would draft him. He's the same size as Ty Lawson and much skinnier. He is an explosive athlete and reminds me a bit of Iverson with less of a J and less creativity and less heart and less leadership and less...well you get the idea. This kid might end up being a solid player individually, but I can guarantee you right now there is no way this kid will play any role in any of his teams making it to the NBA finals. If you want Wesley Snipes from White Man Can't Jump then be my guest.

Austin Daye - I have watched this kid in a few games and failed to see a pro ball player. I did see skills that could translate such as the height and jump shot, but I didn't see a kid who was committed to getting better. This kid has a chance to be a Trevor Ariza type player but he doesn't have the heart. Here's a name you will forget in 4-5 years.

Tyler Hansbrough - This kid's skills will be lost in translation. Every time I saw this kid matched up with a real NBA prospect he couldn't do anything. He couldn't score, create a good shot, rebound, move even. Just because you are a senior in the draft doesn't make you a safe pick or a guy that can contribute right away. Draft research has shown that it means it is more likely that they will bust. Yes he will work as hard as he can to be in the NBA, but he will never be anything more than a back up and energy guy.

I feel like I just wrote a book. Bring on the criticism. Or save it for 3 years later. Either way, I'm ready.